A Sad Day For The NIT

This is a sad day for the NIT.

For most of the past seven seasons (without those COVID complications) the NIT had guaranteed teams that won their conference regular season title a chance to continue playing basketball. It was a decent consolation for strong mid-major teams from 1-bid leagues that didn't qualify for the NCAA Tournament. They were guaranteed to continue playing, even after what had to be the most devastating loss of their season.

That guarantee is gone. Today the NCAA announced that it is changing the NIT selection process and one of the major changes is removing the automatic bids for conference regular season champions. Why? Well read for yourself.

For the 2024 NIT, conference regular season champions that do not win their conference tournament or are not otherwise selected to the NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Championship will not receive an automatic bid to the NIT.  Instead, the NIT will guarantee two teams (based on the NET rankings) from each of six conferences (Atlantic Coast, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12 and Southeastern). The top two teams in the NET rankings not qualifying for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament from each conference, regardless of won-loss record, will be selected.  Additionally, the 12 teams automatically selected will be guaranteed the opportunity to host a game in the first round of the NIT. 

Once the 12 automatic qualifying schools have been selected, the NIT Committee will select the 20 best teams available to complete the tournament’s 32-team field.  Based on the NIT Committee’s evaluation, the best four teams of the 20 at-large teams selected will complete the 16 first round hosts, with deference given to the “first four teams out” of the Division I Men’s Basketball Championship, as determined by the NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball.  Additional teams from the six conferences with AQs are eligible to be selected as at-large teams and can be selected as hosts.

The NCAA is removing those bids so it can guarantee that it has space for 12 teams from power conferences. In terms of basketball competition or fairness this is absolutely nonsensical. But this move isn't about either of those things. It's about the fact that the NCAA needed to appease its power conference brethren when it came to the NIT because FOX was trying to form an alternative. Matt Brown, whose newsletter you should really be reading, laid out more than a month ago why that situation was bad for everyone. This is the first domino.

It probably won't be the last either.

The practical implications of this are many, especially for an NIT Bracketologist. It'll be easy enough to know which teams are trending towards being the 12 automatic bids and hosts. Figuring out the other 20 slots will become a much bigger challenge.

Who this really sucks for though are those teams from the bottom of Division I. Maybe Toledo, Yale, Hofstra, Southern Miss, Bradley and Utah Valley still get a bid to the 2023 NIT if these rules were in effect (and that's a big maybe). But schools like Alcorn St., Youngstown St., Eastern Washington, and Morehead St. would have found themselves on the wrong side of that bubble on Selection Sunday.

That sucks. Morehead St. beat Clemson (who would've been guaranteed a spot under the new rules) in the first round of the NIT last season. That matters. It would never have happened in this new world.

What would take their place? Well, 16-16 Texas Tech would've been in the field while undergoing massive upheaval due to a coaching change. So would've 16-19 Ohio State. Two Big East schools, Villanova and Seton Hall, would've been guaranteed home games instead of going on the road to Colorado and Liberty respectively. In fact, the Flames probably don't even manage to get awarded a home game under this new selection format.

This is a new direction for the NIT. It's a worse direction. I hope this is where it ends, but I feel like that won't be the case.

P.S. I guess I have to put together a new preseason NIT bracket under these circumstances.

 

Way Too Early NIT Bracketology, Oct. 12 Edition

We're inching closer and closer to the season. (So close that I can start talking about Northwestern and the NIT on The Barking Crow.) This time of year is great because there are tons of preview magazines (including Blue Ribbon, for which I wrote about the Horizon League) and rankings available.

I used some of them, including T-Rank, KenPom's new H.U.M.A.N. poll and Evan Miya's brand new rankings to build my latest NIT bracket. I also peaked at Joe Lunardi's NCAA Tournament bracketology as well. There is definitely some consensus at the top of these polls, but when you get down to the bubble and especially into the range of the NIT, things just fall apart.

What I think we do know though is that a few leagues look to be in line to grab a number of NIT bids. For whatever reason it appears those leagues mostly fall out west this season with the disintegrating Pac-12 and the Mountain West leading the way. Much like the ACC did last season, both of these conferences seem primed to have a few elite teams and then a compact middle that will battle it out during conference play. If none of the teams in that middle class get particularly lucky, then they could all find themselves in the NIT.

Ultimately I went with my gut in building this bracket, but the large number of Mountain West and Pac-12 teams did pose some problems in bracketing, especially on the 3/6 lines. Another league to watch that could produce multiple NIT participants? The Atlantic 10. The league will be looking for a bounce back season overall and if some of the top teams perform as expected they could fall right into the NIT's lap.

NIT Bracket (italics is bubble)

1. Stanford

8. Nevada

4. Rutgers

5. Seton Hall

3. Virginia Tech

6. St. Bonaventure

2. LSU

7. Washington

1. Mississippi St.

8. UAB

4. VCU

5. West Virginia

3. Loyola Chicago

6. Wake Forest

2. Iowa St.

7. UNLV

1. BYU

8. Duquesne

4. Boise St.

5. Washington St.

3. Cincinnati

6. Colorado St.

2. Iowa

7. Pittsburgh

1. Nebraska

8. Arizona St.

4. Oklahoma St.

5. Xavier

3. Utah

6. Colorado St.

2. Providence

7. N.C. State

Others Considered: Wichita St., Charlotte, Drexel, UNCW, California (who knows!), Georgia Tech, Boston College

T-Rank Doesn't Think They'll Be .500: Florida St., Syracuse, Michigan, Minnesota, UCF, Butler, DePaul, Georgetown

McNeese State's Non-Division I Opponent Contracts

McNeese State was one of the first mid-majors to announce its non-conference schedule on July 18. Like most schools, McNeese State will be playing some non-Division I opponents. Unlike most schools, they're playing ones most people are completely unfamiliar with.

From Nov. 10-Nov. 14 McNeese State will play three straight home games non-Division I opponents: College of Biblical Studies - Houston (Nov. 10), Champion Christian (Nov. 13) and LeTourneau (Nov. 14). In addition, McNeese State will play the Mississippi University for Women on Dec. 5.

When teams from a higher division secure a home game against a lesser opponent it is typically done through some guaranteed payment. The total payment for those four games is $19,300, according to records obtained by NIT Bracketology. That's less than a quarter of what some Division I schools get paid to play one game at a Power 5 opponent, which should give you some sense of the savings McNeese is getting by playing these particular opponents. Here is the breakdown by game:

• College of Biblical Studies - Houston: $5,000
• Champion Christian College: $5,000
• LeTourneau University: $4,300
• Mississippi University for Women: $5,000

And some fun nuggets about a few of the contracts:

• The contract from the College of Biblical Studies - Houston is signed by Emmanuel Lalande, the Vice President for Enrollment and Student Services.
• The Champion Christian contract also includes: "12 rooms for 1 night at hotel in Lake Charles, LA".
• The Mississippi University for Women contract is signed by Dean Burrows, the head men's basketball coach. (The McNeese State schedule announcement also took care to note that the school has a men's basketball program.)

Last season McNeese played just one official game against a non-Division I opponent when they defeated Champion Christian 110-54 in their season opener. (They also played an exhibition against Ecclesia College on Dec. 5.) The victory over Champion was one 11 on the season. It seems like Will Wade is stepping up the practice.

See the contracts for yourself on our Documents page.

Way Too Early NIT Bracketology

It is worth noting that it is laughably early to be publishing any bracket projections for next season, especially an NIT bracket. Players are still deciding where and if they'll play, teams are still recruiting, and lots could change in the next few weeks. Heck teams are even changing conferences for next season still!

That said, it's still fun to think about what next season could look like, which is why I've put together this Way Too Early NIT bracket. During the construction I used a combination of Bart Torvik's 2024 projections, Joe Lunardi's NCAA bracketology, and just some gut feel.

There's some wide disagreement between all three of those sources: Arizona St. doesn't appear in this bracket because I tried to split the difference between Lunardi (likes them a lot) and Torvik (below .500) and couldn't find a spot I liked. Cal is a hot team right now on the transfer market, and while I like what Mark Madsen is building, I have no idea how that team will perform. I feel similarly about St. John's. I have the Red Storm playing a road game in the NIT in Rick Pitino's first season, which is not what SJU fans are looking for.

Still, there's a long way to go. We won't even play any games for almost six more months. This is all just a little bit of fun while we wait.

Bracketing side note: Colorado St. and Utah were the two toughest teams to find a game for in the bracket. (Or Washington depending on your opinin of the Utes vs. the Huskies.)

Bracket (U means unseeded, italics is bubble):

1. BYU

U. Washington

4. UNLV

U. Nebraska

3. Michigan

U. Mississippi

2. New Mexico

U. Santa Clara

1. Ohio St.

U. St. Bonaventure

4. Virginia

U. St. John's

3. Cincinnati

U. Pittsburgh

2. Iowa

U. Georgia

1. Virginia Tech

U. Colorado St.

4. VCU

U. Seton Hall

3. UAB

U. Oklahoma St.

2. Mississippi St.

U. Stephen F. Austin

1. Iowa St.

U. Bradley

4. Duquesne

U. Wake Forest

3. LSU

U. North Texas

2. Miami FL

U. Utah

What Is Winning The Horizon League Worth To A Coach?

Jerrod Calhoun is a coach on the rise. Calhoun took over Youngstown St. when it was floundering at the end of Jerry Slocum's tenure and he has built the team up into a formidable Horizon League squad. 

Last season the Penguins went 24-10 and took home the league's regular season title. While they ultimately fell to Northern Kentucky in the Horizon League tournament (and thus failed to make the school's first ever NCAA Tournament), they did get to host a first round NIT game against Oklahoma State. YSU finished the season 131st in KenPom, which is the school's highest ranking on the site since KenPom started posting results.

Calhoun will now need to rebuild a roster that ranked 14th in Division I experience last season, but he'll do it in a bit more comfortable of a coaching situation. Calhoun signed a new extension on Wednesday. His new contract runs through 2028 and includes a few new perks after YSU's recent success.

You can see the contract Calhoun signed before this past season and his new one on this site's Document page.

Compensation: Calhoun will now make a base salary of $300,000. That's a 40% ($86,000) raise over the $213,848 he was making prior to the season.

Marketing: Calhoun also received a significant increase in his marketing "bonus" from $5,000 to $50,000.

New Incentive: Calhoun now has a clause in his contract for if he wins Horizon League Coach of the Year. He of course won that award this season. That award would net him $10,000 moving forward.

What does YSU get in return? To keep one of the hottest names in college basketball coaching circles. Calhoun's contract now includes a buyout of 200% of his base salary through Feb. 29, 2024. That means he'll definitely be sitting the rest of this coaching cycle out. (After that it goes back to his previous clause which required a buyout only to lead another Horizon League institution.)

Not bad for a year's worth of work.

How could South Florida make sense for Ryan Odom? A contract review.

Update 3-28-2023: It is being reported by Hoops Weiss that Ryan Odom is going to be the next head coach at VCU. If that's the case then most of this post still applies. Mike Rhoades, who is apparently taking the head coaching job at Penn State, had a contract that was actually quite similar (if slightly more lucrative) to Gregory's when he signed it in 2019 (and it was extended in 2021). I've filed a FOIA for the contract post extension, but the pre-extension version is available here.

The head men's basketball coach opening at the University of South Florida has been one of the most interesting subjects of conversation this offseason. USF fired Brian Gregory after the Bulls went 14-18 (7-11 in the AAC) this past season. A number of different names have popped up since, like former Notre Dame head coach Mike Brey, and the most interesting to me: current Utah State head coach Ryan Odom.

Odom seems to have a good gig at Utah State. The architect of UMBC's upset over Virginia has led the Aggies for two seasons now. They were 18-16 (8-10 in the Mountain West) in his initial campaign and this season they broke through with a 26-9 record (13-4 in the MWC) and a No. 10 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Why then has Odom's name popped up at USF? One potential reason is that he's much more familiar with the southern part of the United States than out west. Odom was a graduate assistant at South Florida in 1996-97 and spent his entire career in and around the DC/Virginia/Carolinas area before taking the head gig at Utah State.

The other potential reason is what an American Athletic Conference program like USF can offer in compensation versus a Mountain West program like USU. To delve deeper into that issue I requested Odom's current contract with USU and Gregory's former contract with USF. USU responded quickly (you can see it here). USF is still working on my request but The Tampa Bay Times posted a copy of Gregory's contract when he signed a three-year extension in October of 2021. (Update: USF did provide me with my own copy of the same contract on March 27.) With the caveat that I'm neither an agent nor a lawyer, here are some of the differences I see between the two.

Base Compensation:

Odom makes a base salary of $500,000 at Utah State. Gregory's contract called for $400,000 annually. But base compensation never tells the story when it comes to coaching contracts.

Media Compensation:

The school also pays coaches for fundraising, promotional, and media appearances. This is often where the bigger chunk of annual compensation is found in head coach contracts. That's definitely the case for Gregory, who was set to make $1,281,250 for the period from April 1, 2021 to March 31, 2022. While that number was to have come down to $730,000 for the year starting April 1, 2022, it was still more than double what Odom is making at $300,000 per year.

Gregory:

Odom:

Bonuses:

The structure of the bonuses for both Odom and Gregory are pretty similar. There are some minor differences. The most fun one is that Gregory only received $1,000 for a regular season victory over the University of Central Florida (UCF) whereas Odom receives $5,000 if he beats BYU or Utah (of course he's got to get the opportunity to play them first).

Gregory:

Odom:

In addition to compensation, a head coach also has the ability to negotiate for better resources for the program from the school, including how much his assistant coaches are paid. This also reveals a disparity between what is available at USU vs. USF.

Assistant Coach Pool:

Odom's contract sets a salary pool of $530,000 for assistant coaches along with an additional $150,000 for other operations and administrative positions. That's $680,000 total, though the clause does also note that the pool will be reviewed on an annual basis.

Gregory's contract called for a consistently growing pool that started at his hiring at more than USU's pool. The past year Gregory had an assistant coaching pool of $850,000 (or ~$170,000 more than Odom).

Termination by School:

Here it appears Odom had a better deal. Gregory's deal includes 20 weeks of his base salary as a buyout whereas USU would owe Odom 75% of his combined base salary and media compensation remaining on the agreement. It's worth noting though that this particular clause definitely represents some of the differences in leverage when Gregory and Odom signed their particular agreements.

Odom:

Gregory:

Termination by Coach:

Odom's buyout is not insignificant. If his contract is terminated in Year 3 or thereafter, which it looks like would be the case, Odom would have to pay 35% of the Cumulative Remaining Salary, which by my math is approximately $840,000. If Gregory were still employed by USF on April 1, 2023 and had wanted to terminate his agreement he would owe the school $750,000. It's worth noting that coaches often include clauses in their contracts that have their new employers pay their buyout.

Odom:

Gregory:

So there are a few potential reasons it seems why the USF job could be attractive to Odom. It would mean returning to an area of the country he's familiar recruiting and living in. It would probably mean an increase in compensation from $800,000 to at least in the neighborhood of around $1.1 million plus. And it would likely give him a larger pool for his assistant coaches. All of these are good incentives.

Of course, taking the South Florida job would also come with downsides. Where Odom took the Utah State job he took over a perennial NCAA Tournament program from Craig Smith. The Bulls haven't made the NCAA Tournament since the 2011-12 season under Stan Heath. The school was still playing in Big East back then. The American Athletic Conference is a competitive league that is losing Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF but also bringing in a number of strong programs from Conference USA. Building a competitive basketball program at USF won't be easy.

But it's a challenge someone is going to be willing to take on.

The Ghosts of St. Francis Brooklyn

I was devastated to hear the news this afternoon that St. Francis Brooklyn is shutting down its athletic programs at the end of the 2023 spring semester.

They have been playing collegiate basketball at St. Francis Brooklyn for more than 100 seasons. Famously, during all of those seasons the Terriers never made the NCAA Tournament. It appears now that they never will.

But to let that stat define the legacy of St. Francis Brooklyn would be a travesty. The school was home to a number of near misses and built the legacy of some amazing players. Players like Jalen Cannon, who was everywhere on the court during his four seasons on Remsen Street from 2011-12 to 2014-15. Cannon is the St. Francis Brooklyn career leader in games played, field goal percentage, defensive rebounds, offensive rebounds, and points. A 6-foot-6 forward from Allentown, PA, he turned the opportunity Glen Braica gave him to play Division I basketball into a globe-trotting professional career.

There were also players like Ben Mockford, who transferred from Iona and became the school's leading three-point percentage shooting leader.

And Brent Jones who was the heart and engine of some of the best teams in Terriers history despite being generously listed at 5-foot-10. He will also forever be the school's career assist leader.

Jones's final season was 2014-15. I took the 2 or 3 train down to Brooklyn Heights to cover the team a lot during that season for my old site NYC Buckets. I would walk into the Pope Physical Education Center and pick up my credential from will call ticket table in the cafeteria next door. The gym was tiny. The Pope Center had a listed capacity of 1,200 fans. KenPom had it as the seventh smallest in Division I. The fans though had a ton of heart. And so did Glenn Braica.

A New Yorker through and through, Braica came to St. Francis to try and bring glory back to a program whose biggest successes came in the 1940 and 50's before the NCAA Tournament became what it is today. Braica though wanted to be the one to break through. He built a winner thanks to some luck, some under-recruited gems like Cannon and Jones, and a tough defensive mindset. That 2014-15 season was the one where he was supposed to break through. The Terriers started 0-5 as they played the difficult non-conference schedule typical of Northeast Conference schools that need to raise funds. But when they beat Columbia right before New Years, I was there. I remember talking to Braica next to the locker room above the swimming pool as he talked about his team that was just about to reach .500. There was hope there. Hope that he had the pieces to finally bring home a title.

He was right. The Terriers went 15-3 in the NEC. They were the class of the league thanks to Jones, Cannon, Amdy Fall's length on the defensive end, Tyreek Jewell's enigmatic offense, and minutes from a promising freshman named Glenn Sanabria. SFNY went legitimately 11 players deep and Braica (sometimes frustratingly) messed with his rotations looking for the perfect group.

As the No. 1 seed, the Terriers played at home throughout the 2015 NEC Tournament. They defeated Brooklyn rival LIU in the quarterfinals and it was clear people were starting to notice. Braica and I weren't talking above the pool anymore. There was an entire room set up for the press conference. The same scene played itself out again after SFNY took out St. Francis PA in the semifinals.

The Terriers welcomed Robert Morris and Andy Toole into the Pope Center for the final Northeast Conference showdown. The Colonials had consistently played second fiddle to another Brooklyn team (LIU) during the early part of Toole's tenure and this was also their chance to make a statement.

And in one of the most heartbreaking and intense games ever played in front of probably more than the official 1,013 listed fans the Colonials defeated the Terriers 66-63. The Colonials led for the entire final agonizing 11 minutes, with the Terriers falling down by as many as 10 points before battling back to make it interesting at the end.

That was as close as St. Francis Brooklyn will ever come to making the NCAA Tournament. There will be no more men's collegiate basketball on Remsen Street (though this was already true as the school moved campuses in the middle of this season). The ghosts of games like that loss to RMU will live at 180 Remsen Street forever.

Braica hasn't had a team nearly that good in his eight seasons since at the helm of the Terriers. Injuries and uncertainty made this season even more difficult, but he was still hopeful at the end. “If we get some of our guys back,” Braica said in the press conference after his team lost in the quarterfinals to future national media darling Fairleigh Dickinson, “we can really be good next year.” Now he'll never get the chance.