NIT Bracketology, Feb. 12

Well, it finally happened. I had to pull a team from outside of my NIT bracket post-selection because of the automatic bid rules. In case you missed it, the top two teams in NET after the NCAA Selection from each of the Power Six conferences (those Power Five in football plus the Big East) receive an automatic bid.

Since it's near impossible to predict how NET will change, because it's dependent on things like margin, I make the somewhat bold assumption that it'll stay entirely static to the end of the season and use today's NET rankings (which the NCAA publishes every morning), to form my bracket.

When I got to the end of the NIT selection process today I thought I basically had four teams for three spots. I looked through the profiles of UNLV, Maryland, Florida St. and Charlotte to determine which I would leave out. Until I went to do the automatic bids at the top of the bracket and realized that LSU was 94th in NET and Georgia, which I had towards the bottom of the bracket but in, was 95th. This meant the Tigers received an automatic bid and you'll see them on the 4 seed line. Florida State was the team that was left out due to the change. The Seminoles have a bunch of Quad I and II wins, including over UNLV, but they also lost to Georgia and Louisville (!) this season. It's a perplexing profile to say the least.

Also, welcome Rutgers to the projected NIT bracket. The Scarlet Knights have won their last three games, including a road win at Maryland and a convincing home victory over Wisconsin on Saturday. Those wins were enough to push Steve Pikiell's team into the bracket. Rutgers has a bunch more opportunities, but if the Knights get to 17-14 overall before the Big Ten Tournament I would expect to see them in the NIT. (Definitely not a given, but now completely plausible.) They're safer than the implied 8 seed they have in this bracket, which happened due to bracketing rules (see below).

The inclusion of Rutgers means that three conferences: the Big East, ACC and Big Ten make up a large portion of this projection, which made bracketing much more difficult. As conference play continues, and conference tournaments happen, I think that number will dwindle slightly? It will definitely be something to watch moving forward.

Last 8 in NCAA Tournament: Gonzaga, Boise St., Northwestern, Nevada, Cincinnati, Butler, St. John's, Utah

NIT Bracket (automatic bids in bold, bubble in italics):

1. Colorado (Pac-12 1)

U. UNLV

4. UCF (Big 12 1)

U. Miami FL

3. SMU

U. Ohio St.

2. Oregon (Pac-12 2)

U. San Francisco

1. Villanova (Big East 1)

U. Rutgers

4. Pittsburgh (ACC 1)

U. Princeton

3. Memphis

U. Georgia

2. Kansas St. (Big 12 2)

U. Minnesota

1. Xavier (Big East 2)

U. Syracuse

4. Iowa (Big Ten 2)

U. Drake

3. Seton Hall

U. N.C. State

2. Nebraska (Big Ten 1)

U. Washington

1. Providence

U. Indiana

4. LSU (SEC 2)

U. James Madison

3. Virginia Tech (ACC 2)

U. Richmond

2. Mississippi (SEC 1)

U. Maryland

Seriously Considered: Florida St., Charlotte, VCU, St. Bonaventure, North Texas, Bradley

Next Tier: Boston College, Stanford, George Mason, Cornell

Probably CBI Bound: Duquesne, South Florida, UAB, Southern Illinois, Santa Clara, Liberty, UCLA, Loyola Chicago, Massachusetts, Saint Joseph's

Automatic NIT Bids Are Gone: Now What?

Conference play will be wrapping up before we know it and conference tournaments will be starting. For a long time prior to this season No. 1 seeds that lost in their conference tournament had a fallback option: the NIT. The NCAA had previously reserved automatic bid spots for the No. 1 seed of any conference that lost in its tournament. It was a reward for a strong regular season with a stumble at the end.

That guarantee ended when the NIT announced a new selection criteria prior to this season. Now that we have some sense of what teams might be the number one seed in their conference tournament, I wanted to see which ones lost that safety net. (The CBI has said they'd be happy to take conference winners, but that tournament comes with its own complications for participation. Still it at least offers teams somewhere to go.)

I looked at the projected No. 1 seeds for each conference according to KenPom and tried to assess their chances of getting an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament or the NIT. The No. 1 seeds in nine conference tournaments seem hopefully headed to the NCAA Tournament. Saint Mary's and Indiana St. would be holding their breath, but would definitely at least make the NIT. Unfortunately, for another 10 conferences it seems the projected No. 1 will likely have no shot at the NIT. These are mostly mid-to-low major conferences. It represents a great reduction in the equity that the old NIT system used to provide.

The Breakdown

Would Make NCAA (9): Big 12, Big East, SEC, Big Ten, ACC, Pac 12, Mountain West, Atlantic 10 (Dayton), American (Florida Atlantic)

Probably At-Large (2): Missouri Valley (Indiana St.), West Coast Conference (Saint Mary's)

Might Make NIT (11): Ivy League (Yale), WAC (Grand Canyon), Conference USA (Louisiana Tech), Southern Conference (Samford), Big West Conference (UC Irvine), Sun Belt Conference (Appalachian St.), Coastal Athletic Association (UNC Wilmington), America East (Vermont), Mid American Conference (Akron), Southland Conference (McNeese St.), Ohio Valley Conference (Morehead St.)

Won't Make NIT (10): Big South Conference (High Point), Horizon League (any of the trio projected to finish 14-6), Big Sky (Eastern Washington), Summit League (any of the trio projected to finish 10-6), ASUN Conference (Eastern Kentucky), MAAC (Quinnipiac), Southwestern Athletic Conference (Southern), Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference (Norfolk St. or North Carolina Central), Northeast Conference (Merrimack), Colgate (Patriot League)

Let's look at the 11 conferences in the middle. Here's a brief look at each of their cases and where they'd likely stand. [Projected quadrant records come from T-Rank, NET, KenPom and Strength of Record (SOR) are current as of today, Feb. 9.] They're sorted by NET as of today.

Brief NIT At-Large Profiles

Grand Canyon - NET: 49, KenPom: 57, Q1+Q2 Wins: 4, Q3+Q4 Losses: 1, SOR: 22

The reality is that in a just selection world Grand Canyon (21-2) would be on the line with Saint Mary's and Indiana St. and heading towards at potential NCAA at-large berth. Bryce Drew's team seems like a lock for the NIT though if they lose during the WAC tournament. They've beaten other NCAA/NIT consideration teams like San Francisco, San Diego St. and Louisiana Tech and their two losses are on a netural court to South Carolina and at Seattle.

UC Irvine - NET: 64, KenPom: 63, Q1+Q2 Wins: 1, Q3+Q4 Losses: 3, SOR: 79

The Anteaters played three quadrant one games during non-conference: at Utah St., at San Diego St. and at New Mexico. Not many teams were going to win those contests, which is how they find themselves with just a single projected Quad II win for winning at USC. That lack of marquee wins could hold UCI back in the eyes of the NIT Selection Committee. They seem like a team that would be right on the edge. It is worth noting though that there's a severe lack of West Coast representation in the NIT bracket right now because of the Mountain West's large number of NCAA Tournament bids, which (for conspiracy theorists) could make UCI's inclusion more attractive.

McNeese St. - NET: 69, KenPom: 78, Q1+Q2 Wins: 3, Q3+Q4 Losses: 2, SOR: 60

Will Wade's first season at McNeese St. (20-3) has been an unqualified success. The non-conference schedule was... let's say lacking, which means there's not a ton to this profile, but the Cowboys did manage to win at UAB and Michigan. Their biggest concern right now is that the rest of the Southland schedule just offers a lot of downside for their NIT profile. T-Rank projects they'll lose at least one more conference game before the tournament even starts. Even with that downward pressure on their resume, it seems like McNeese St. should be headed towards an NIT bid if necessary. 

Samford - NET: 73, KenPom: 80, Q1+Q2 Wins: 2, Q3+Q4 Losses: 2, SOR: 47

Samford's three losses this season are on the road at: Purdue, VCU and Furman. That explains how their strength of record is so high despite the fact that their best win is... at Western Carolina or at UNC Greensboro. The Bulldogs are going to represent a giant conundrum for the NIT selection committee. If the NET and KenPom stay at current levels, it'll be extremely close and they'll have something like SOR to thank if they end up on the right side of the bubble.

Louisiana Tech - NET: 75, KenPom: 71, Q1+Q2 Wins: 2, Q3+Q4 Losses: 5, SOR: 110

These Bulldogs are here because the NET and KenPom numbers will give them another look. When you look at who their wins and losses though I find it hard to make a case for Talvin Hester's squad.

Appalachian St. - NET: 81, KenPom: 89, Q1+Q2 Wins: 4, Q3+Q4 Losses: 6, SOR: 72

Appalachian St. has mixed some awesome wins with some absolutely perplexing losses, such as Wednesday's loss at Texas St. Their extremely confusing profile also includes victories over Auburn (!) and at James Madison. The fact that some of the bad losses happened extremely early in the season and they have two wins that will likely stand up for the rest of the season definitely gives the Mountaineers a fighting chance for an NIT at-large bid.

Yale - NET: 82, KenPom: 86, Q1+Q2 Wins: 3, Q3+Q4 Losses: 4, SOR: 76

Another group of Bulldogs. These ones struggled a bit during a difficult non-conference (they were 5-5 on Dec. 6), but have since rounded into form and become the top team in a top heavy Ivy League race. Yale took some stunning losses, including Fairfield at home, but they've won eight straight games. That winning streak has conincided with them starting to form a legitimate NIT at-large case. James Jones's group has wins at Sant Clara and at home against Princeton and still has chances for impressive wins at the Tigers or Cornell. How they do in those games might forecast if they'll need to win the Ivy League tournament in Levien Gymnasium to play postseason basketball.

Akron - NET: 86, KenPom: 88, Q1+Q2 Wins: 2, Q3+Q4 Losses: 2, SOR: 83

Outside of a home win over Bradley during non-conference, the Zips basically beat the teams they were supposed to beat and lost to the ones you'd expect. If that continues during conference play Akron (18-5) should be able to put up a strong record of wins and losses. That accumulation will be their biggest selling point to the NIT.

Morehead St. - NET: 101, KenPom: 108, Q1+Q2 Wins: 0, Q3+Q4 Losses: 2, SOR: 88

The NET is probably a bit too high for Morehead St. or the next two teams to receive legitimate NIT at-large consideration, but they should based on their result-based (SOR) metric. Morehead's problem is that their relatively high NET and KenPom are accompanied by zero wins in their premiere opportunities (which in their defense were: at Alabama, at Purdue, at Indiana and at Penn St.). If the Eagles had won one of those we'd probably be having a slightly different conversation.

UNC Wilmington - NET: 106, KenPom: 105, Q1+Q2 Wins: 2, Q3+Q4 Losses: 5, SOR: 77

UNC Wilmington has one of the best wins of any team on this list with their stunning victory at Kentucky on Dec. 2. That victory along with a road win at Charleston gives Takayo Siddle's team two excellent victories to hang their hats on. They've also had some slip-ups too, including 2-game losing streak to start CAA play (at Drexel and at Towson) and an overtime loss at Stony Brook. They also have an ugly 30-point loss against potential fellow at-large competitor Appalachian St. How the committee weighs those strong wins versus the losses will determine UNCW's fate.

Vermont - NET: 109, KenPom: 111, Q1+Q2 Wins: 3, Q3+Q4 Losses: 5, SOR: 85

The Catamounts had things in cruise control in America East until a surprising loss last night at NJIT, 63-61. That defeat was probably the worst of the season for the Catamounts, even if it did come on the road to a conference foe (T-Rank gave them -2.0 WAB for it). Vermont has beaten Yale at home (by a point in a wild finish) and won at Toledo, but there isn't enough for them to slip into the NIT if the fall in the America East tournament, especially considering a loss would be on their home floor.

Pre-Valentine's Day NIT Bracketology

If I'm being honest, I'm not in love with this bracket. There are too many ACC teams and things became messy down at the bottom. There are also two Ivy League teams, which if that actually happens I will be ecstatic but also floored.

I could've made bracketing a little easier by taking teams like James Madison (NET 63), St. Bonaventure (NET 67) or North Texas (NET 77), but none of the three are currently projected to have more wins over Quad I & II opponents than losses to Quad III & IV teams. The Mean Green are the closest at 3-3, according to T-Rank's projections.

Still, there will probably be a chance for things to shake themselves out as conference play continues. We have a number of excellent matchups this weekend. Tonight includes two excellent appetizers in San Diego St. at Nevada (project No. 1 seed here) and Dayton at VCU (projected unseeded team that's definitely on the NIT bubble). Then things get wild on Saturday with Washington St. at Oregon, Drake at Bradley, Providence at Butler, Virginia at Florida St., Maryland at Ohio St., Cornell at Yale, and a random Akron at James Madison game.

If I had to pick two extremely confusing teams right now it would be Charlotte and South Florida. The Bulls are appearing in some NCAA Tournament brackets right now as the projected "AAC Champion", but I think that's pretty silly. Power rankings suggest there's little chance that'll actually happen. But USF is definitely in consideration for an NIT bid. Both Charlotte and USF though are playing the "easier" version of the AAC schedule, which means fewer chances to get marquee wins. They'll need to secure some more big wins to move up in the NET.

Last 8 NCAA (in order): Butler, Gonzaga, Colorado, Washington St., St. John's, Northwestern, Boise St., Utah

NIT Bracket (automatic bids in bold, bubble teams in italics):

1. Nevada

U. Maryland

4. Oregon (Pac-12 1)

U. N.C. State

3. UCF (Big 12 1)

U. Georgia

2. Virginia Tech (ACC 1)

U. Richmond

1. Providence (Big East 2)

U. LSU

4. Pittsburgh (ACC 2)

U. Ohio St.

3. Iowa (Big Ten 2)

U. Drake

2. Villanova (Big East 1)

U. Syracuse

1. Nebraska (Big Ten 1)

U. Bradley

4. Kansas St. (Big 12 2)

U. Memphis

3. Washington (Pac-12 2)

U. San Francisco

2. Seton Hall

U. Cornell

1. Mississippi (SEC 2)

U. VCU

4. Miami FL (ACC 2)

U. Princeton

3. SMU

U. Minnesota

2. Texas A&M (SEC 1)

U. Florida St.

Also Considered: James Madison, North Texas, Boston College, St. Bonaventure, Massachusetts, Saint Joseph's, UNLV, Indiana, South Florida, Southern Illinois, Charlotte, Loyola Chicago

February NIT Bracketology

I don't have anything insightful to say (I'm saving up), so a few observations as we head into February: 

1. The NCAA Tournament bubble is really flat right now. There are a lot of teams that have similar types of resumes hanging around the bracket. There's not a huge difference between my seventh-to-last team in, Northwestern, and a few teams at the top of this NIT bracket. That could mean that we're in for a big shakeup coming down the stretch.

2. Butler and Wake Forest are two teams that stood out to me as having a lot of chances to improve their resume down the stretch. Both the Bulldogs and Demon Deacons play a number of top ranked teams in February. For now I've included Wake Forest in the bracket and Butler not because Wake has built a better foundation.

3. A lot of power conference teams are benefitting from this new NET selection logic. I used NET ratings as of the morning of Jan. 31 for this bracket and they helped Washington, Georgia, Iowa, UCF, Ohio St. and Kansas St. all find their way into home games when I think the cases would've been much more complicated without it.

4. Memphis is in absolute freefall.

5. Cornell's NIT resume is better than you think. The Big Red were 79th in NET as of Wednesday morning and 100th in KenPom. They're also 15-3 and just beat Princeton. I still have the Tigers as the Ivy League's NCAA Tournament automatic bid, but either of those squads could potentially make the NIT this season. (Yale is also in the league race, but the Bulldogs have too many non-conference blemishes to make a run at postseason basketball without the automatic bid.)

6. St. Bonaventure had a better KenPom rating than Richmond (81 vs. 82) as of Wednesday night at 9:30 pm. I could see the argument for and the argument against the Bonnies making the NIT. I ultimately left them out despite a strong NET because they haven't beaten a single team in my NCAA or NIT field yet.

NCAA Bubble Last 6: Mississippi, Boise St., Providence, Washington St., Wake Forest, Nebraska

NIT Bracket (autos in bold, bubble in italics):

1. SMU

U. N.C. State

4. Iowa (Big Ten 1)

U. Drake

3. Washington (Pac-12 2)

U. San Francisco

2. Villanova (Big East 1)

U. Syracuse

1. Texas A&M (SEC 1)

U. North Texas

4. Kansas St. (Big 12 2)

U. Pittsburgh

3. Xavier (Big East 2)

U. Indiana

2. Oregon (Pac-12 1)

U. Nevada

1. Virginia Tech (ACC 2)

U. LSU

4. UCF (Big 12 2)

U. Memphis

3. Georgia (SEC 2)

U. James Madison

2. Virginia (ACC 1)

U. Richmond

1. Seton Hall

U. Cornell

4. Ohio St. (Big Ten 2)

U. Florida St.

3. Miami FL

U. Maryland

2. Butler

U. Bradley

Others Considered: Minnesota, Boston College, St. Bonaventure. Charlotte, UNLV, Stanford, Saint Joseph's, UMass, VCU, George Mason

Late January NIT Bracketology

This NIT bracket represents the results through the beginning of conference play. There have been some surprising results! A few teams on the rise include: Richmond and UCF. On the other hand, Memphis has suffered two close losses recently and the Tigers are now in real danger of missing the NCAA Tournament.

This bracket could really use some more West Coast teams in higher seeds. It was hard to figure out how to bracket teams like San Francisco and Washington lower in the bracket. Also, there are still eight ACC teams in this bracket, which also complicates things. Eventually I expect it will all shake out, but right now it's a bit of a mess. Gonzaga is in my NCAA bracket as an at-large team as is St. John's.

Just a reminder: I use current NET to figure out the automatic bids.

NCAA Bubble Last 6: SMU, Cincinnati, Ohio St., Florida, Xavier, Nebraska

NIT Bracket (autos in bold, bubble in italics):

1. Kansas St.

U. Pittsburgh

4. Oregon (Pac-12 2)

U. Nevada

3. South Carolina (SEC 1)

U. Florida St.

2. Northwestern (Big Ten 2)

U. Bradley

1. Providence (Big East 1)

U. Indiana

4. Drake

U. NC State

3. Miami FL

U. San Francisco

2. Ole Miss (SEC 2)

U. North Texas

1. Texas (Big 12 1)

U. Boston College

4. Washington St. (Pac-12 1)

U. UNLV

3. Iowa (Big Ten 1)

U. Washington

2. Butler (Big East 2)

U. Syracuse

1. Virginia (ACC 1)

U. James Madison

4. UCF (Big 12 2)

U. Georgia

3. Virginia Tech (ACC 2)

U. Richmond

2. Memphis

U. LSU

Also Considered: Minnesota, Maryland, Arizona St., Stanford, St. Bonaventure, Saint Joseph's, VCU, UMass, George Mason, Loyola Chicago, Charlotte, Northern Iowa, Southern Illinois, Santa Clara, Liberty, Stephen F. Austin, Seattle

Post CFB Championship NIT Bracketology

The moments after the college football national title game are a great time to check in on college basketball. Casual fans are ready to transition back to watching college basketball instead of football during the week. Eamonn Brennan released his first Bubble Watch today for instance!

Full disclosure: I haven't read it yet. So the opinions below are completely my own. They're guided by KenPom and T-Rank standings for now. Also, it's hard for me to predict how the NET will shake out by the end of the season, so I think of it as a somewhat static metric at this point. That's not true of course, things will change as teams rise and fall during conference play, but if you're wondering why Butler has a protected seed in this bracket and Seton Hall doesn't it's because of their 10-spot difference in today's NET rankings. (I also have all the Mountain West bubble contenders in the NCAA Tournament. That's probably a stretch.)

KenPom projects UCF to finish 14-16 (5-13 Big 12), but the Golden Knights are in this bracket because I needed another Big 12 protected seed. If two of Texas, Kansas St. and TCU manage to make the NCAA Tournament (because those seem like the Big 12's bubble teams) then UCF will be called upon to represent the conference in the NIT.

There are a number of Pac-12 and SEC teams at the bottom of this bracket. I don't expect that to hold. During Championship Fortnight some of the mid-major conference leaders are going to fall and not be in position to get an NCAA at-large berth, but they're going to be well positioned to make the NIT. That means those power conference teams at the bottom might get pushed out altogether.

Seeds for road teams are technically implied, not actual. I moved teams around somewhat liberally to get a bracket that made sense. The final eight teams on my s-curve are in italics.

Last 4 NCAA At-Large Teams: Providence, Texas, Northwestern, Boise St.

NIT Bracket (protected in bold, bubble in italics):

1. South Carolina (SEC 1)

8. St. Bonaventure

4. UCF (Big 12 2)

5. Virginia Tech

3. Virginia

6. Georgia

2. SMU

7. Arizona St.

1. Wake Forest (ACC 1)

8. LSU

4. Washington (Pac-12 2)

5. San Francisco

3. Mississippi (SEC 2)

6. Seton Hall

2. N.C. State

7. USC

1. Oregon (Pac-12 1)

8. Arkansas

4. Butler (Big East 2)

5. Minnesota

3. Kansas St. (Big 12 1)

6. Indiana

2. Saint Mary's

7. Washington St.

1. Xavier (Big East 1)

8. Boston College

4. Iowa (Big Ten 2)

5. Drake

3. Pittsburgh (ACC 2)

6. Saint Joseph's

2. Nebraska (Big Ten 1)

7. Stanford

Seriously Considered: Richmond, Syracuse, Louisiana Tech, Massachusetts, North Texas, George Mason, Southern Illinois

Magic Week NIT Bracketology

It's the magical week where the AP Poll predicts the national champion! (Don't know what I'm talking about? Read John Gasaway's piece on ESPN+.) While I don't think an NIT bracket at this point is that predictive, we do know something about every team in the country at this point.

We can also start to see how the new selection rules for the NIT might play out. I'm currently using KenPom as an NET proxy. It appears that at least one power conference team is going to get pulled from quite far down the bracket and into a protected seed. The most likely candidate conference right now is the Big 12. Say 10 teams from the Big 12 make it into the NCAA Tournament. That would leave just four for the NIT to pick from, potentially including having to take one with a losing record. In this scenario it's UCF, which probably wouldn't be in the bracket except for their protected seed, that benefits. The Golden Knights are 76th in KenPom, so they're not a bad team, but they're also projected to go 15-15 on both KenPom and T-Rank.

It's also possible that the higher ranked NET team in a conference like the Big East won't have the best NIT resume. Xavier, for instance, is ranked higher than Butler and St. John's in KenPom right now (just Butler in T-Rank), but it's hard to say the Musketeers will have a better resume than either of those teams come Selection Sunday.

It's also going to be fascinating to watch where teams like Memphis, all the Mountain West teams that don't get the automatic NCAA bid, and Saint Mary's ends up. For now I have a number of those teams in the NCAA Tournament, but there is a long way to go.

Last NCAA At-Larges: Kansas St., USC, Saint Mary's, Texas, Providence, TCU, San Diego St., New Mexico

NIT Bracket (Protected Seeds in Bold, Bubble Teams in Italics):

1. Texas Tech (Big 12 1)

8. Minnesota

4. Mississippi

5. Washington

3. N.C. State (ACC 2)

6. Missouri

2. Michigan (Big Ten 1)

7. Saint Joseph's

1. Oregon (Pac-12 1)

8. Nevada

4. Xavier (Big East 1)

5. Iowa

3. Butler (Big East 2)

6. Duquesne

2. Indiana

7. Drake

1. South Carolina (SEC 2)

8. St. Bonaventure

4. UCF (Big 12 2)

5. Rutgers

3. Arkansas (SEC 1)

6. Maryland

2. Virginia Tech (ACC 1)

7. Seton Hall

1. Nebraska (Big Ten 2)

8. Georgia

4. Washington St.

5. Boise St.

3. UCLA (Pac-12 2)

6. Utah St.

2. St. John's

7. Syracuse

Also Considered: George Mason, Boston College, VCU, Appalachian St., Louisiana Tech, North Texas, SMU, Richmond, San Francisco, Florida St., Tulane, Wichita St., Bradley, Missouri St., Southern Illinois, Loyola Marymount, Yale, Hawaii, Drexel, Kent St.