NIT Bracketology, Feb. 26

This latest NIT bracket comes with a few notes:

1. These teams are automatic NCAA qualifiers for me: Utah St., Richmond, South Florida, Indiana St., Saint Mary's, Yale, Samford, Grand Canyon, Louisiana Tech. If any one of them were not the automatic bid they would be part of this discussion.

2. The inclusion of Richmond as the A-10 champion and South Florida as the American champion pushed Dayton and Florida Atlantic into the at-large pool. This had a bunch of butterfly effects later on.

3. I ended up with three Big East teams as NIT No. 1 seeds. This is an entirely plausible scenario and it creates quite the bracketing headache.

4. Princeton got screwed here in implied seeding because of the NIT's geographic component. The Tigers have a good enough resume to have a home game themselves and shouldn't be playing a road game at the No. 1 overall seed, but that's how the match ups worked out.

5. Xavier is a razor's edge with whether they'll finish .500 or above. It basically comes down to if the Musketeers win at Butler or against Marquette at home during the final week of the regular season. (Assuming they do the easy stuff and beat DePaul and Georgetown.) If they were to fall below .500, that'd probably create drama at MSG (where they'd need to make a run) or open up another spot in the NIT.

I'll try and update more often now that we're less than three weeks out from Selection Sunday.

Last 8 NCAA Tournament: Colorado, Virginia, New Mexico, Nevada, Wake Forest, Michigan St., Nebraska, Texas

NIT Bracket (automatic bids in bold, bubble in italics):

1. Villanova (Big East 1)

U. Princeton

4. James Madison

U. Memphis

3. Cincinnati (Big 12 1)

U. VCU

2. Pittsburgh (ACC 1)

U. Minnesota

1. St. John's (Big East 2)

U. St. Bonaventure

4. Virginia Tech (ACC 2)

U. Washington

3. Oregon (Pac-12 2)

U. San Francisco

2. Texas A&M (SEC 1)

U. Syracuse

1. Utah (Pac-12 1)

U. UNLV

4. Butler

U. Drake

3. Kansas St.

U. SMU

2. Iowa (Big Ten 1)

U. Loyola IL

1. Providence

U. Maryland

4. UCF (Big 12 2)

U. LSU

3. Ohio St. (Big Ten 2)

U. Xavier

2. Ole Miss (SEC 2)

U. N.C. State

Others Considered: Bradley, Florida St., Boston College, North Texas, George Mason, UMass, Miami FL, Rutgers, Penn St., Georgia, Charlotte, UAB, UCLA, Southern Illinois, Cornell, UC San Diego, UNCW

NIT Bracketology, Feb. 19

It's President's Day! The season is winding down. Don't believe me? Chicago St. is playing its last game of the SEASON as I put together this post. Now, the Cougars are in a unique spot because they don't have a conference affiliation (at least until they join the NEC next season), but the 2023-24 campaign is definitely winding down.

In fact, it's so close to winding down that things that looked like outliers that were going to resolve themselves in time are becoming a reality. Things such as South Florida leading the American Conference. The Bulls are now the projected regular season champion of the AAC according to KenPom's rankings and thus I've given them an automatic bid into the NCAA Tournament. Also, St. John's is falling apart. The Red Storm lost at home to Seton Hall and those two teams going in completely different directions. Ohio St. fired its coach and then beat Purdue! The Buckeyes are in line for an automatic bid to the NIT still too.

Things are getting late and crazy. Enjoy the games!

Last 8 NCAA Tournament: Boise St., Cincinnati, Ole Miss, Seton Hall, Nebraska, Gonzaga, Nevada, Texas A&M

NIT Bracket (Automatic Bids in Bold, Bubble Teams in Italics):

1. Butler

U. Washington

4. Iowa (Big Ten 2)

U. Oregon

3. Xavier

U. Syracuse

2. Indiana St.

U. VCU

1. Wake Forest (ACC 1)

U. James Madison

4. LSU (SEC 1)

U. Richmond

3. Pittsburgh (ACC 2)

U. Minnesota

2. St. John's (Big East 2)

U. Princeton

1. Utah (Pac-12 1)

U. San Francisco

4. UCF (Big 12 1)

U. Virginia Tech

3. Kansas St. (Big 12 2)

U. SMU

2. Colorado (Pac-12 1)

U. Maryland

1. Villanova (Big East 1)

U. Rutgers

4. Georgia (SEC 2)

U. N.C. State

3. Ohio St. (Big Ten 1)

U. Memphis

2. Providence

U. Miami FL

Others Considered (In Order): Boston College, Cornell, Charlotte, St. Bonaventure, Florida St., Bradley, North Texas, UNLV, UCLA, Loyola Chicago

NIT Bracketology, Feb. 12

Well, it finally happened. I had to pull a team from outside of my NIT bracket post-selection because of the automatic bid rules. In case you missed it, the top two teams in NET after the NCAA Selection from each of the Power Six conferences (those Power Five in football plus the Big East) receive an automatic bid.

Since it's near impossible to predict how NET will change, because it's dependent on things like margin, I make the somewhat bold assumption that it'll stay entirely static to the end of the season and use today's NET rankings (which the NCAA publishes every morning), to form my bracket.

When I got to the end of the NIT selection process today I thought I basically had four teams for three spots. I looked through the profiles of UNLV, Maryland, Florida St. and Charlotte to determine which I would leave out. Until I went to do the automatic bids at the top of the bracket and realized that LSU was 94th in NET and Georgia, which I had towards the bottom of the bracket but in, was 95th. This meant the Tigers received an automatic bid and you'll see them on the 4 seed line. Florida State was the team that was left out due to the change. The Seminoles have a bunch of Quad I and II wins, including over UNLV, but they also lost to Georgia and Louisville (!) this season. It's a perplexing profile to say the least.

Also, welcome Rutgers to the projected NIT bracket. The Scarlet Knights have won their last three games, including a road win at Maryland and a convincing home victory over Wisconsin on Saturday. Those wins were enough to push Steve Pikiell's team into the bracket. Rutgers has a bunch more opportunities, but if the Knights get to 17-14 overall before the Big Ten Tournament I would expect to see them in the NIT. (Definitely not a given, but now completely plausible.) They're safer than the implied 8 seed they have in this bracket, which happened due to bracketing rules (see below).

The inclusion of Rutgers means that three conferences: the Big East, ACC and Big Ten make up a large portion of this projection, which made bracketing much more difficult. As conference play continues, and conference tournaments happen, I think that number will dwindle slightly? It will definitely be something to watch moving forward.

Last 8 in NCAA Tournament: Gonzaga, Boise St., Northwestern, Nevada, Cincinnati, Butler, St. John's, Utah

NIT Bracket (automatic bids in bold, bubble in italics):

1. Colorado (Pac-12 1)

U. UNLV

4. UCF (Big 12 1)

U. Miami FL

3. SMU

U. Ohio St.

2. Oregon (Pac-12 2)

U. San Francisco

1. Villanova (Big East 1)

U. Rutgers

4. Pittsburgh (ACC 1)

U. Princeton

3. Memphis

U. Georgia

2. Kansas St. (Big 12 2)

U. Minnesota

1. Xavier (Big East 2)

U. Syracuse

4. Iowa (Big Ten 2)

U. Drake

3. Seton Hall

U. N.C. State

2. Nebraska (Big Ten 1)

U. Washington

1. Providence

U. Indiana

4. LSU (SEC 2)

U. James Madison

3. Virginia Tech (ACC 2)

U. Richmond

2. Mississippi (SEC 1)

U. Maryland

Seriously Considered: Florida St., Charlotte, VCU, St. Bonaventure, North Texas, Bradley

Next Tier: Boston College, Stanford, George Mason, Cornell

Probably CBI Bound: Duquesne, South Florida, UAB, Southern Illinois, Santa Clara, Liberty, UCLA, Loyola Chicago, Massachusetts, Saint Joseph's

Automatic NIT Bids Are Gone: Now What?

Conference play will be wrapping up before we know it and conference tournaments will be starting. For a long time prior to this season No. 1 seeds that lost in their conference tournament had a fallback option: the NIT. The NCAA had previously reserved automatic bid spots for the No. 1 seed of any conference that lost in its tournament. It was a reward for a strong regular season with a stumble at the end.

That guarantee ended when the NIT announced a new selection criteria prior to this season. Now that we have some sense of what teams might be the number one seed in their conference tournament, I wanted to see which ones lost that safety net. (The CBI has said they'd be happy to take conference winners, but that tournament comes with its own complications for participation. Still it at least offers teams somewhere to go.)

I looked at the projected No. 1 seeds for each conference according to KenPom and tried to assess their chances of getting an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament or the NIT. The No. 1 seeds in nine conference tournaments seem hopefully headed to the NCAA Tournament. Saint Mary's and Indiana St. would be holding their breath, but would definitely at least make the NIT. Unfortunately, for another 10 conferences it seems the projected No. 1 will likely have no shot at the NIT. These are mostly mid-to-low major conferences. It represents a great reduction in the equity that the old NIT system used to provide.

The Breakdown

Would Make NCAA (9): Big 12, Big East, SEC, Big Ten, ACC, Pac 12, Mountain West, Atlantic 10 (Dayton), American (Florida Atlantic)

Probably At-Large (2): Missouri Valley (Indiana St.), West Coast Conference (Saint Mary's)

Might Make NIT (11): Ivy League (Yale), WAC (Grand Canyon), Conference USA (Louisiana Tech), Southern Conference (Samford), Big West Conference (UC Irvine), Sun Belt Conference (Appalachian St.), Coastal Athletic Association (UNC Wilmington), America East (Vermont), Mid American Conference (Akron), Southland Conference (McNeese St.), Ohio Valley Conference (Morehead St.)

Won't Make NIT (10): Big South Conference (High Point), Horizon League (any of the trio projected to finish 14-6), Big Sky (Eastern Washington), Summit League (any of the trio projected to finish 10-6), ASUN Conference (Eastern Kentucky), MAAC (Quinnipiac), Southwestern Athletic Conference (Southern), Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference (Norfolk St. or North Carolina Central), Northeast Conference (Merrimack), Colgate (Patriot League)

Let's look at the 11 conferences in the middle. Here's a brief look at each of their cases and where they'd likely stand. [Projected quadrant records come from T-Rank, NET, KenPom and Strength of Record (SOR) are current as of today, Feb. 9.] They're sorted by NET as of today.

Brief NIT At-Large Profiles

Grand Canyon - NET: 49, KenPom: 57, Q1+Q2 Wins: 4, Q3+Q4 Losses: 1, SOR: 22

The reality is that in a just selection world Grand Canyon (21-2) would be on the line with Saint Mary's and Indiana St. and heading towards at potential NCAA at-large berth. Bryce Drew's team seems like a lock for the NIT though if they lose during the WAC tournament. They've beaten other NCAA/NIT consideration teams like San Francisco, San Diego St. and Louisiana Tech and their two losses are on a netural court to South Carolina and at Seattle.

UC Irvine - NET: 64, KenPom: 63, Q1+Q2 Wins: 1, Q3+Q4 Losses: 3, SOR: 79

The Anteaters played three quadrant one games during non-conference: at Utah St., at San Diego St. and at New Mexico. Not many teams were going to win those contests, which is how they find themselves with just a single projected Quad II win for winning at USC. That lack of marquee wins could hold UCI back in the eyes of the NIT Selection Committee. They seem like a team that would be right on the edge. It is worth noting though that there's a severe lack of West Coast representation in the NIT bracket right now because of the Mountain West's large number of NCAA Tournament bids, which (for conspiracy theorists) could make UCI's inclusion more attractive.

McNeese St. - NET: 69, KenPom: 78, Q1+Q2 Wins: 3, Q3+Q4 Losses: 2, SOR: 60

Will Wade's first season at McNeese St. (20-3) has been an unqualified success. The non-conference schedule was... let's say lacking, which means there's not a ton to this profile, but the Cowboys did manage to win at UAB and Michigan. Their biggest concern right now is that the rest of the Southland schedule just offers a lot of downside for their NIT profile. T-Rank projects they'll lose at least one more conference game before the tournament even starts. Even with that downward pressure on their resume, it seems like McNeese St. should be headed towards an NIT bid if necessary. 

Samford - NET: 73, KenPom: 80, Q1+Q2 Wins: 2, Q3+Q4 Losses: 2, SOR: 47

Samford's three losses this season are on the road at: Purdue, VCU and Furman. That explains how their strength of record is so high despite the fact that their best win is... at Western Carolina or at UNC Greensboro. The Bulldogs are going to represent a giant conundrum for the NIT selection committee. If the NET and KenPom stay at current levels, it'll be extremely close and they'll have something like SOR to thank if they end up on the right side of the bubble.

Louisiana Tech - NET: 75, KenPom: 71, Q1+Q2 Wins: 2, Q3+Q4 Losses: 5, SOR: 110

These Bulldogs are here because the NET and KenPom numbers will give them another look. When you look at who their wins and losses though I find it hard to make a case for Talvin Hester's squad.

Appalachian St. - NET: 81, KenPom: 89, Q1+Q2 Wins: 4, Q3+Q4 Losses: 6, SOR: 72

Appalachian St. has mixed some awesome wins with some absolutely perplexing losses, such as Wednesday's loss at Texas St. Their extremely confusing profile also includes victories over Auburn (!) and at James Madison. The fact that some of the bad losses happened extremely early in the season and they have two wins that will likely stand up for the rest of the season definitely gives the Mountaineers a fighting chance for an NIT at-large bid.

Yale - NET: 82, KenPom: 86, Q1+Q2 Wins: 3, Q3+Q4 Losses: 4, SOR: 76

Another group of Bulldogs. These ones struggled a bit during a difficult non-conference (they were 5-5 on Dec. 6), but have since rounded into form and become the top team in a top heavy Ivy League race. Yale took some stunning losses, including Fairfield at home, but they've won eight straight games. That winning streak has conincided with them starting to form a legitimate NIT at-large case. James Jones's group has wins at Sant Clara and at home against Princeton and still has chances for impressive wins at the Tigers or Cornell. How they do in those games might forecast if they'll need to win the Ivy League tournament in Levien Gymnasium to play postseason basketball.

Akron - NET: 86, KenPom: 88, Q1+Q2 Wins: 2, Q3+Q4 Losses: 2, SOR: 83

Outside of a home win over Bradley during non-conference, the Zips basically beat the teams they were supposed to beat and lost to the ones you'd expect. If that continues during conference play Akron (18-5) should be able to put up a strong record of wins and losses. That accumulation will be their biggest selling point to the NIT.

Morehead St. - NET: 101, KenPom: 108, Q1+Q2 Wins: 0, Q3+Q4 Losses: 2, SOR: 88

The NET is probably a bit too high for Morehead St. or the next two teams to receive legitimate NIT at-large consideration, but they should based on their result-based (SOR) metric. Morehead's problem is that their relatively high NET and KenPom are accompanied by zero wins in their premiere opportunities (which in their defense were: at Alabama, at Purdue, at Indiana and at Penn St.). If the Eagles had won one of those we'd probably be having a slightly different conversation.

UNC Wilmington - NET: 106, KenPom: 105, Q1+Q2 Wins: 2, Q3+Q4 Losses: 5, SOR: 77

UNC Wilmington has one of the best wins of any team on this list with their stunning victory at Kentucky on Dec. 2. That victory along with a road win at Charleston gives Takayo Siddle's team two excellent victories to hang their hats on. They've also had some slip-ups too, including 2-game losing streak to start CAA play (at Drexel and at Towson) and an overtime loss at Stony Brook. They also have an ugly 30-point loss against potential fellow at-large competitor Appalachian St. How the committee weighs those strong wins versus the losses will determine UNCW's fate.

Vermont - NET: 109, KenPom: 111, Q1+Q2 Wins: 3, Q3+Q4 Losses: 5, SOR: 85

The Catamounts had things in cruise control in America East until a surprising loss last night at NJIT, 63-61. That defeat was probably the worst of the season for the Catamounts, even if it did come on the road to a conference foe (T-Rank gave them -2.0 WAB for it). Vermont has beaten Yale at home (by a point in a wild finish) and won at Toledo, but there isn't enough for them to slip into the NIT if the fall in the America East tournament, especially considering a loss would be on their home floor.

Pre-Valentine's Day NIT Bracketology

If I'm being honest, I'm not in love with this bracket. There are too many ACC teams and things became messy down at the bottom. There are also two Ivy League teams, which if that actually happens I will be ecstatic but also floored.

I could've made bracketing a little easier by taking teams like James Madison (NET 63), St. Bonaventure (NET 67) or North Texas (NET 77), but none of the three are currently projected to have more wins over Quad I & II opponents than losses to Quad III & IV teams. The Mean Green are the closest at 3-3, according to T-Rank's projections.

Still, there will probably be a chance for things to shake themselves out as conference play continues. We have a number of excellent matchups this weekend. Tonight includes two excellent appetizers in San Diego St. at Nevada (project No. 1 seed here) and Dayton at VCU (projected unseeded team that's definitely on the NIT bubble). Then things get wild on Saturday with Washington St. at Oregon, Drake at Bradley, Providence at Butler, Virginia at Florida St., Maryland at Ohio St., Cornell at Yale, and a random Akron at James Madison game.

If I had to pick two extremely confusing teams right now it would be Charlotte and South Florida. The Bulls are appearing in some NCAA Tournament brackets right now as the projected "AAC Champion", but I think that's pretty silly. Power rankings suggest there's little chance that'll actually happen. But USF is definitely in consideration for an NIT bid. Both Charlotte and USF though are playing the "easier" version of the AAC schedule, which means fewer chances to get marquee wins. They'll need to secure some more big wins to move up in the NET.

Last 8 NCAA (in order): Butler, Gonzaga, Colorado, Washington St., St. John's, Northwestern, Boise St., Utah

NIT Bracket (automatic bids in bold, bubble teams in italics):

1. Nevada

U. Maryland

4. Oregon (Pac-12 1)

U. N.C. State

3. UCF (Big 12 1)

U. Georgia

2. Virginia Tech (ACC 1)

U. Richmond

1. Providence (Big East 2)

U. LSU

4. Pittsburgh (ACC 2)

U. Ohio St.

3. Iowa (Big Ten 2)

U. Drake

2. Villanova (Big East 1)

U. Syracuse

1. Nebraska (Big Ten 1)

U. Bradley

4. Kansas St. (Big 12 2)

U. Memphis

3. Washington (Pac-12 2)

U. San Francisco

2. Seton Hall

U. Cornell

1. Mississippi (SEC 2)

U. VCU

4. Miami FL (ACC 2)

U. Princeton

3. SMU

U. Minnesota

2. Texas A&M (SEC 1)

U. Florida St.

Also Considered: James Madison, North Texas, Boston College, St. Bonaventure, Massachusetts, Saint Joseph's, UNLV, Indiana, South Florida, Southern Illinois, Charlotte, Loyola Chicago

February NIT Bracketology

I don't have anything insightful to say (I'm saving up), so a few observations as we head into February: 

1. The NCAA Tournament bubble is really flat right now. There are a lot of teams that have similar types of resumes hanging around the bracket. There's not a huge difference between my seventh-to-last team in, Northwestern, and a few teams at the top of this NIT bracket. That could mean that we're in for a big shakeup coming down the stretch.

2. Butler and Wake Forest are two teams that stood out to me as having a lot of chances to improve their resume down the stretch. Both the Bulldogs and Demon Deacons play a number of top ranked teams in February. For now I've included Wake Forest in the bracket and Butler not because Wake has built a better foundation.

3. A lot of power conference teams are benefitting from this new NET selection logic. I used NET ratings as of the morning of Jan. 31 for this bracket and they helped Washington, Georgia, Iowa, UCF, Ohio St. and Kansas St. all find their way into home games when I think the cases would've been much more complicated without it.

4. Memphis is in absolute freefall.

5. Cornell's NIT resume is better than you think. The Big Red were 79th in NET as of Wednesday morning and 100th in KenPom. They're also 15-3 and just beat Princeton. I still have the Tigers as the Ivy League's NCAA Tournament automatic bid, but either of those squads could potentially make the NIT this season. (Yale is also in the league race, but the Bulldogs have too many non-conference blemishes to make a run at postseason basketball without the automatic bid.)

6. St. Bonaventure had a better KenPom rating than Richmond (81 vs. 82) as of Wednesday night at 9:30 pm. I could see the argument for and the argument against the Bonnies making the NIT. I ultimately left them out despite a strong NET because they haven't beaten a single team in my NCAA or NIT field yet.

NCAA Bubble Last 6: Mississippi, Boise St., Providence, Washington St., Wake Forest, Nebraska

NIT Bracket (autos in bold, bubble in italics):

1. SMU

U. N.C. State

4. Iowa (Big Ten 1)

U. Drake

3. Washington (Pac-12 2)

U. San Francisco

2. Villanova (Big East 1)

U. Syracuse

1. Texas A&M (SEC 1)

U. North Texas

4. Kansas St. (Big 12 2)

U. Pittsburgh

3. Xavier (Big East 2)

U. Indiana

2. Oregon (Pac-12 1)

U. Nevada

1. Virginia Tech (ACC 2)

U. LSU

4. UCF (Big 12 2)

U. Memphis

3. Georgia (SEC 2)

U. James Madison

2. Virginia (ACC 1)

U. Richmond

1. Seton Hall

U. Cornell

4. Ohio St. (Big Ten 2)

U. Florida St.

3. Miami FL

U. Maryland

2. Butler

U. Bradley

Others Considered: Minnesota, Boston College, St. Bonaventure. Charlotte, UNLV, Stanford, Saint Joseph's, UMass, VCU, George Mason