NIT Bracketology: Final Thoughts On The Bubble and the Black Box

The NIT bracket was released (after it was corrected) last night around 10 pm ET. The biggest surprise (to me) was the inclusion of UCF.

The biggest takeaway for me from the teams that were selected (and the teams I assume were close) was that the NIT Selection Committee relied heavily on the NCAA's own NET ranking. As you can see below the only outlier in terms of the NET for which teams were selected around the bubble was Santa Clara. The Broncos were clearly the third best team in the West Coast Conference this season. I think they ultimately got in because of that and because of their strong resume metrics. Santa Clara was 64th in ESPN's Strength of Record. It's also possible based on the seeding that either Villanova, Seton Hall, or Santa Clara was the final team into the field after North Carolina declined a bid. (And I would guess it was Santa Clara.)

Team	Selected	Seed	NET	KenPom	Strength of Record	Q1/Q2 Wins
UAB	Yes	4	57	62	75	3
Florida	Yes	4	62	63	77	3
Colorado	Yes	3	69	59	94	7
Cincinnati	Yes	4	70	54	73	3
UCF	Yes	5	71	65	107	5
Washington St.	Yes	4	73	57	92	7
Villanova	Yes	6	75	60	78	5
Virginia Tech	Yes	5	76	81	86	6
Seton Hall	Yes	6	77	70	72	6
Dayton	No		78	78	106	2
Utah	No		79	72	100	5
Marshall	No		83	84	96	2
Santa Clara	Yes	6	84	82	64	4
Wake Forest	No		90	88	83	5
Nebraska	No		92	95	65	7
San Jose St.	No		95	93	81	6

Considering the NET was originally introduced as a sorting tool that is supposed to place teams into quadrants, it's odd that the selection committee leaned so hard into it as a selection tool. (Though it is worth noting that Wisconsin and Vanderbilt, which were 80th and 81st in NET received high seeds. On the other hand, both those teams had a plethora of strong wins and were considered potential NCAA Tournament bubble teams for a long time.)

In addition, it could've been that the committee leaned heavily on KenPom and not NET and they're just so closely aligned that it's hard to see the difference, but that would actually make Santa Clara and Virginia Tech outliers.

I've tended to use 100 in NET as my cutoff heuristic for delineating potential at-large teams for the NIT. That still seems like a reasonable line to draw, but it does seem like a team needs something rather extraordinary to make it even with a NET above 80 or so.

Some of these questions and concerns could've also been alleviated if the NIT Selection Show on ESPNU had given literally any insight into how the bracket was selected and seeded. I would've loved to learn what other teams were considered and which team entered the bracket after the Tar Heels declined. The NIT could also publish their s-curve like the NCAA Tournament does, but that has never happened either.

So we are left with this black box. We'll try to figure it out again next season.

The 2023 NIT Bracket Is Out

I'll have more to say about the bracket tomorrow, but it's out.

Ultimate I got 31/32 teams. It appears that once again KenPom and predictive ratings in generally played a big part in the seeding process. It's really weird that they created rematches between Oregon and UC Irvine and Washington State and Eastern Washington instead of flipping them just for a few extra miles of travel.

Also, if you watched the bracket reveal show on ESPNU you should check out this bracket. The NCAA apparently accidentally flipped all the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds. This bracket makes way more sense!

Still, it should be a fun tournament!

Final Projected NIT Bracket

For posterity, this is my final projection of the NIT bracket:

1. Rutgers

U. YALE

4. Villanova

U. Cincinnati

3. Florida

U. SOUTHERN MISS

2. Wisconsin

U. TOLEDO

1. Oklahoma St.

U. BRADLEY

4. Sam Houston St.

U. Colorado

3. Virginia Tech

U. YOUNGSTOWN ST.

2. North Texas

U. Washington St.

1. Vanderbilt

U. UC IRVINE

4. UAB

U. Liberty

3. New Mexico

U. Nebraska

2. Oregon

U. EASTERN WASHINGTON

1. Clemson

U. ALCORN ST.

4. Santa Clara

U. UTAH VALLEY

3. Seton Hall

U. HOFSTRA

2. Michigan

U. MOREHEAD ST.

This bracket doesn't include two teams, North Carolina and Texas Tech, that declined to participate in postseason play beyond the NCAA Tournament. (We can talk about that decision for the Tar Heels, who would've been a No. 1 seed, in more detail another time.)

The last team into this bracket is Nebraska. The Cornhuskers are playing at New Mexico, a game I've given them a number of times in the past. It is completely plausible that the NIT selection committee will want to go with a different West Coast team in that slot. If that's the case then I could see San Jose St., San Francisco, or Loyola Marymount there. (Or UC Irvine bumped up and another southern team in the bracket.) Also, while I think Colorado and Washington St. should be safely into the field, there are some brackets out there that disagree. The most logical at-large candidates beyond the three mentioned above include Dayton, Marshall, and Wake Forest. I have a full run down of the NIT bubble on the site.

The weirdest game in this bracket is definitely UC Irvine, an automatic bid out of the Big West conference, heading to Vanderbilt. I just ran out of slots for West Coast games. Also, I might be too high on the Commodores generally. They have great resume metrics but bad power rankings and were not in the NCAA committee's First Four Out. (They've replaced UNC because I had Vanderbilt as an NCAA team originally.)

The NIT Selection Show is at 10 pm ET on ESPNU. Good luck to everyone involved and their fans.

The Full NIT Bubble

The NIT bubble is a fascinating puzzle. After the first two seed lines there's no telling which teams are going to make the tournament. It'll depend heavily on how the selection committee decides to let teams into the field. I am going to try and lay out here what my current thoughts are about the field and how it could play out tomorrow night at 9 pm on ESPNU. For each team I'll highlight the pros and cons of their cases to the committee. If you're not on this list I just can't imagine hearing your name called tomorrow night, but I've been shocked before.

Assumed Safe: NCAA Tournament bubble teams (Rutgers, Nevada, Pittsburgh, Clemson, North Texas, Wisconsin, Oregon, North Carolina), Michigan, New Mexico

They're Probably Safe But They're a Mid-Major:

Sam Houston State: The Bearkats fell in the WAC semifinals on Friday night. They finished 25-7 and were the No. 1 seed in the conference tournament thanks to WACPts. They didn't receive an automatic bid though, because that went to Utah Valley. SHSU is ranked 65th in NET, 52nd in Strength of Record, and 68th on KenPom. They won at Oklahoma and Utah during non-conference. The only blemishes on their resume is a Quad IV loss at UT Arlington and a 2-4 overall record against Quad I and II. They should be in the NIT.

Santa Clara: Herb Sendek's squad was the third best team in the West Coast Conference this season behind Gonzaga and Saint Mary's. That alone should be enough to get them an at-large bid to the NIT. Santa Clara currently ranks 64th in Strength of Record, but is 84th in NET and 82nd in KenPom. The Broncos, who finished 23-9 overall, beat Boise St., Iona, and UC Irvine during non-conference play. Santa Clara should be in unless the committee just decides to go all predictive and ignore actual wins and losses.

Liberty: Liberty tied for first in Atlantic Sun with Kennesaw State. The Flames are 44th in NET and 48th in KenPom. They're basically the opposite of Santa Clara, as they're 1-5 against Quad I and II (a neutral site victory over fellow NIT participant Bradley) and just 89th in Strength of Reecord. Still, it'll be hard for the committee to ignore a NET that high along with going 26-8 and 15-3 in conference play.

UAB: This one is a little weird because the Blazers will play for an NCAA Tournament berth at 8:30 pm against Florida Atlantic in the CUSA finals tonight. If they lose that game though UAB should still be in line for an NIT bid. The Blazers are 52nd in NET and 54th in KenPom. They also have a Strength of Record of 69. UAB is 25-8 overall and beat FAU at home and just beat North Texas on a neutral court.

Middling Majors I Think Are Safe:

Seton Hall: The Pirates are 17-15 in their first season under Shaheen Holloway, but they have four Quad I wins, including Memphis on a netural court, at Rutgers, home against Connecticut, and a blowout win at Providence to end the season. SHU struggled a bit down the stretch, going 2-6 in their final eight games as injuries took a toll. Losing to DePaul by a point in the opening round of the Big East tournament wasn't the best look, but Seton Hall has the best wins of any major conference team below the obvious candidates. SHU is 73rd in Strength of Record, 80th in NET, and 69th in KenPom.

Florida: I would think that Florida gets into the NIT. The Gators are 16-16 overall in Todd Golden's first season in charge. They're 60th in the NET, 63rd in KenPom, and 78th in Strength of Record. Of Florida's 16 losses 15 were either in Quad I or II. Their only "bad" loss was at home to Vanderbilt, which doesn't look bad at all at this point. The big question here is what the Gators want to do after losing their best player, senior center Colin Castleton, to a season-ending injury a few weeks ago. Florida beat Georgia and LSU since then and lost in overtime to Mississippi St. in the SEC Tournament. They can win games without Castleton and deserve a chance to start the next phase of the program.

Villanova: Villanova came on strong towards the end of Kyle Neptune's first season and is currently 75th in NET, 77th in Strength of Record, and 60th in KenPom. The Wildcats are 7-3 in their last 10 games and have beaten Seton Hall, Xavier (away), Creighton, Seton Hall (again, away) during that stretch. They're currently 17-16 overall, but clearly NIT quality.

Virginia Tech: The Hokies are 78th in NET, 81st in Strength of Record and 81st in KenPom. They played a soft non-conference schedule, which allowed them to get out to a gaudy (and deceiving) 11-1 record before stumbling on a 7-game losing streak in ACC play. Since then though they've played alright, beating the teams they should but also Duke, Virginia and Pittsburgh at home. VT is 19-14 overall and seems like a classic NIT selection.

Colorado: Another team that seems like a classic NIT selection is Colorado. The Buffaloes are 70th in NET and 59th in KenPom, though just 94th in Strength of Record. Colorado is 17-16 overall, but has wins against Tennessee and Texas A&M on a neutral court in non-conference, plus a win at Arizona St. in February. The Buffaloes also beat fellow Pac-12 bubble contenders Utah and Washington down the stretch. I would expect Tad Boyle's squad to make it, but they're the diciest proposition in this group because of their five Quad III and IV losses.

These Really Are Bubble Teams:

Washington St.: Kyle Smith's Cougars find themselves right where they were at this point in the season last year, right on the NIT bubble. WSU is 72nd in NET, 92nd in Strength of Record, and 58th in KenPom. That KenPom rating along is probably enough to get the Cougars into the NIT. They'll need to hope that's what the committee relies on though, because WSU is just 1-11 against Quad I opponents (of course the one win was at Arizona). The Cougars also have a 5-3 record against Quad II opponents and are 17-16 overall, so it seems like they'll eventually make it into the field.

Cincinnati: Another team that is still playing! The Bearcats are playing in the AAC semifinals against Houston as I write this post. A win there would obviously be a huge boost to the resume. Even without it though UC seems like a strong NIT candidate. They are 68th in NET, 74th in Strength of Record, and 52nd in KenPom. My concern about Wes Miller's squad is that they have just three Quad I and II wins to go with two Quad III losses. Cincinnati's inability to beat Houston or Memphis during AAC play is the reason they might end up missing out on the NIT.

San Jose St.: Tim Miles has one of the best stories in college basketball this season with the West Coast Spartans. They're 96th in NET, 87th in Strength of Record, and 93rd in KenPom. What SJSU does have going for it though is a bunch of good wins. They have victories over Santa Clara, Utah St., Boise St. and Nevada. That ability to beat quality competition might not be enough to quite offset the lackluster overall metrics.

Nebraska: The Cornhuskers might be the most interesting team on the NIT bubble. They are 93rd in NET and 97th in KenPom, but 66 in Strength of Record. How? By going 7-15 against Quad I and II thanks to a ton of close victories. Nebraska beat Penn St., Wisconsin, Rutgers (away), Maryland, and Iowa (away) during the final month of the regular season. Of course then Nebraska went and took their worst loss of the season to Minnesota to start the Big Ten Tournament. Nebraska also lost a bunch of games from its rotation due to injury. It'll be interesting to see how the committee looks at Nebraska's predictive metrics versus its difficult schedule, 16-16 record, and overall body of work.

More Bubble Teams:

Wake Forest: The Demon Deacons are 90th in NET, 85th in Strength of Record, and 88th in KenPom. The finished ahead of Virginia Tech in the ACC standings, but they also went 2-5 in their last seven games including losses to Boston College and at Syracuse. They're a reasonable candidate though at 19-14 overall.

Saint Louis: The Billikens officially entered the NIT at-large pool with a loss to VCU in the A-10 semifinals this afternoon. They were 95th in NET, 80th in Strength of Record (though 58th in KPI) and 94th in KenPom before the loss. Their best win is at home against Memphis in their third game of the season.

Dayton: The Flyers have a better NET (76th) and KenPom (74th) but worse resume metrics than their conference mates. Dayton won at VCU, which is the best win a team can get in the A-10, but they also have four Quad III and IV losses. Dayton plays Fordham a little later in the A-10 semifinals.

Kent St.: The Golden Flashes are another team still playing, this time in the MAC championship against Toledo tonight. If they don't win that game though they'll have a decent argument for an at-large bid. They're 63rd in NET, 51st in Stength of Record, and 78th in KenPom. Kent St. is 27-6 overall after going 15-3 in MAC play. Kent St.'s issue is that they have just one Quad II win (at Ohio) after playing a lackluster non-conference schedule (well they played Charleston, Houston, and Gonzaga, but good luck with those). Update: Kent St. defeated Toledo on Saturday night to clinch the MAC's automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament.

San Francisco: The Dons closed the season strong, making it to the semifinals of the WCC tournament before falling to Gonzaga. USF (20-14) has a neutral site double-overtime win over Santa Clara, a home win against Arizona St., plus a win at fellow WCC bubble team Loyola Marymount. USF is also 108th in NET, 113th in Strength of Record, and 101st in KenPom.

Loyola Marymount: 107th in NET, 102nd in Strength of Record, 108th in KenPom. LMU has the worst raw metrics of the three WCC teams, but they also have the best win — at Gonzaga. LMU also beat Saint Mary's and Nevada at home and Wake Forest on a netural court. In fact, LMU is 5-8 against Quad I and II competition and 4-4 against Quad III. A weak non-conference schedule might be what ultimately prevents them from making the NIT.

Tulane: The Green Wave looked to be an NIT lock earlier this season, but they closed poorly and are now 100th in NET, 90th in Strength of Record and 100th in KenPom. They're also still alive for an NCAA Tournament berth (they play Memphis in the AAC semifinals later today). Tulane is 6-4 right now against Quad I and II, but they also have six Quad III and IV losses. It's possible, they hear their name called thanks to wins at Memphis (OT), versus Memphis, and versus Cincinnati (OT).

BYU: The Cougars are 85th in NET and 73rd in KenPom, but 121st in Strength of Record. They went 2-11 against Quad I and II and also have four Quad III and IV losses. They did beat Loyola Marymount in the WCC tournament. They also split with USF and LMU during WCC play, which basically created a situation where none of the three teams have an outstanding resume.

Utah: The Utes are 17-15 overall. They're also 81st in NET, 99th in Strength of Record, and 71st in KenPom. So they have to be mentioned here. They've also been extremely injured down the stretch and lost their last six games, including against Stanford in the Pac-12 tournament.

UCF: The Golden Knights season ended last night with a loss to Memphis in the AAC quarterfinals. UCF went 18-14 overall and is 73rd in NET, but 107th in Strength of Record. They are 66th in KenPom though, but a committee that selects on power ratings and not resume could potentially give them a spot. UCF also really struggled down the stretch after starting the season 13-4. This would be an odd choice.

Marshall: The other team in the Sun Belt alongside Louisiana and Southern Miss, the Thundering Herd went 24-8, including 13-5 in conference play. They're 83rd in NET, 95th in Strength of Record, and 84th in KenPom. They didn't play a Quad I game all season, but they did go 2-2 against Quad II, including winning at Duquesne and James Madison. If that's your marquee wins though it's tough to imagine an NIT berth coming.

Princeton: The Tigers were the co-champions of the Ivy League with Yale and will play the Bulldogs on their home court at Jadwin Gymnasium in the finals of the Ivy League tournament for a chance to go to the NCAA Tournament. If they don't they'll hope the committee looks at their 19-8 overall record (10-4 Ivy League). The Tigers ranked 119th in NET, 109th in Strength of Record, and 117th in KenPom coming into today. Update: Princeton defeated Yale on Sunday afternoon to clinch the Ivy League's automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament.

Fordham: Look, the Rams are a great story and they were 76th in Strength of Record coming into today, but they're also 130th in NET and 137th in KenPom. It would be a shock to see a team that played that terrible of a non-conference schedule and whose best wins are at Tulane and at Duquesne in the NIT. 

Officially declined postseason play: Texas Tech. Not .500: Ohio St., Oklahoma.

March 1 NIT Bracketology

Welcome to March! It's all going to happen. This bracket is updated through all games played on Feb. 28. Honestly, the top of the bracket hasn't changed much at all. There has been a lot of movement in the bottom of the bracket.

Notable moves:

Nebraska has dropped out again because the Cornhuskers are now 15-15 overall with a game at Iowa remaining in their regular season schedule. Nebraska either has to win that game or make the quarterfinals of the Big Ten Tournament to finish .500 overall and neither seem particularly likely. If one were to happen I would definitely bring them back into the bracket.

Florida is back in the bracket thanks to convincingly taking care of business by 10 points at Georgia on Tuesday night. The Gators are struggling a bit down the stretch and lost Colin Castleton for a significant amount of time, but they are also 59th in NET right now with strong resume metrics as well. They are 15-15 overall as well, but their final regular season game is at home against reeling LSU.

Saint Louis is out of the bracket, replaced by Toledo because SLU's metrics are really high (in a bad way). Honestly, those spots are going to end up going to automatic bids anyways (potentially even Toledo if they win the MAC regular season title, though I have Kent St. in there at the moment).

Bracketing nonsense:

Pay attention to the italics here. The unseeded bracketing can cause some stuff that is way off of my S-curve. The final 10 teams in this bracket are in italics to account for automatic bids. That includes for instance UNLV even though they look like a "5" seed. The reason they're playing at Santa Clara comes down to geography and a logjam with Pac-12 opponents in that range (Colorado, Utah, and Washington St.) that can't be placed in the same region as 1 seed Arizona State.

Update: I forgot Liberty in this bracket originally. The Flames are 40th in NET right now, so they have to be considered an at-large contender. The rest of the resume though is pretty weak. Still, either Liberty of Kennesaw St. needs to be in this bracket as the ASUN tournament continues. I've moved the Flames in and dropped UCF from the bracket.

Next bracket update: Whenever necessary, no later than Friday evening going into the weekend.

Last NCAA teams: North Carolina St., Wisconsin, Utah St., Auburn, Memphis, West Virginia, Mississippi St.

NIT Bracket (bubble in italics):

1. North Carolina

U. Liberty

4. Vanderbilt

U. Southern Miss

3. Wake Forest

U. Florida

2. College of Charleston

U. Tulane

1. Arizona St.

U. Cincinnati

4. Santa Clara

U. UNLV

3. Oregon

U. Dayton

2. New Mexico

U. Loyola Marymount

1. Michigan

U. Toledo

4. Virginia Tech

U. Seton Hall

3. Penn St.

U. Villanova

2. Clemson

U. UAB

1. Oklahoma St.

U. Utah

4. Drake

U. Colorado

3. Texas Tech

U. Sam Houston St.

2. North Texas

U. Washington St.

Feb. 26 NIT Bracketology

Before you look at this bracket you should know: I have no idea what is going to happen this season. Thanks to the general guidelines the NIT selection committee seems to follow (under 100 in NET, above .500 overall) there's usually not that many at-large candidates for the NIT. Until this season.

The constant parity in the middle tier of college basketball has created a logjam of power conference teams sitting right around .500. In the past five seasons the NIT has been played (so not counting the COVID cancellation) there have been four teams total selected that were within one game of .500. Depending on how the end of the regular season and the conference tournaments play out we could easily be looking at four teams from this season alone.

This makes it nearly impossible to figure out how to select what will eventually be those final at-large slots (once automatic bids start happening). While it's possible a few will fall off, teams like Colorado, Washington St., Nebraska, Villanova, Oklahoma, Florida, and more will be vying for those last bids. What does the committee do with all of them? Will they favor the ones with better resumes or those with stronger power ratings? I truly don't know. It makes this bracket a real guessing game.

With that said, welcome Nebraska to the projected NIT bracket. KenPom has the Cornhuskers projected to finish 16-15 in the regular season. That of course requires Nebraska to win either at home versus Michigan St. or at Iowa during the final week of the regular season. If Fred Hoiberg's team does that they'll be one of the most fascinating cases in the bracket. Nebraska's NET is 88 and its KenPom is 93 at the moment, but the team sheet resume metrics (KPI, SOR) have a 64.5 average because the Cornhuskers haven't lost to a team outside the top two quadrants. (Heck, they've only played eight of those games total.) Personally, I'd want that team in the NIT. We'll see how things play out and if the committee agrees on Selection Sunday.

Florida is now projected to finish under .500 in the regular season according to KenPom (15-16). Thus I've removed them from the bracket. The Gators play at Georgia and home versus LSU and need to win both to get back above water.

Also, I had to play around with the seeding for the road teams quite a bit to get decent-ish matchups, so pay attention to the italics. Washington St. and Santa Clara are actually higher in my seed line than Southern Miss.

Update (Feb. 28, 7:30 am): I dropped Oklahoma St. into the NIT after their home loss to Baylor on Monday night. Wisconsin takes their place as one of the final teams into the NCAA Tournament.

NCAA Tournament Bubble: USC, Nevada, Utah St., Auburn, Memphis, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Mississippi St. (yes, I know I'm well off consensus by including USU, but they're good)

NIT Bracket (bubble in italics, U. is unseeded):

1. North Carolina
U. UCF
4. Vanderbilt
U. Southern Miss
3. Wake Forest
U. Washington St.
2. College of Charleston
U. UAB

1. Arizona St.
U. UNLV
4. Drake
U. Nebraska
3. Oregon
U. Santa Clara
2. New Mexico
U. Dayton

1. Oklahoma St.
U. Cincinnati
4. Seton Hall
U. Utah
3. Penn St.
U. Villanova
2. Clemson
U. Tulane

1. Michigan
U. Saint Louis
4. Virginia Tech
U. Colorado
3. Texas Tech
U. Sam Houston St.
2. North Texas
U. Loyola Marymount

Lurking: Florida, St. John's, Oklahoma, Toledo, BYU

Next Bracket? Probably once the first automatic bid is handed out. I'll also update the Current NIT Bracket more frequently with those sorts of changes.

Feb. 24 NIT Bracketology

There's been enough movement to justify a new bracket going into the weekend, so here it is! There are a few teams lurking right below .500 that could make interesting additions to this bracket in particular Washington St., Nebraska, and Villanova.

Note: This bracket takes into account the ability to move around unseeded teams. So the italics denoting bubble teams that could potentially lose their spot to an automatic bid team is definitely important to pay attention to.

After this bracket was published Southern Miss won the Sun Belt, so I replaced them with Marshall in the bracket. The two teams are a close to 1-to-1 replacements of each other.

NCAA Bubble Teams: USC, Nevada, Utah St., Wisconsin, Auburn, Memphis, West Virginia

NIT Bracket:

1. Michigan
U. Cincinnati
4. Vanderbilt
U. Bradley
3. Seton Hall
U. Colorado
2. Virginia Tech
U. UAB

1. New Mexico
U. Toledo
4. Sam Houston St.
U. Utah
3. Clemson
U. Marshall
2. Oregon
U. Loyola Marymount

1. Mississippi St.
U. St. John's
4. Wake Forest
U. Tulane
3. College of Charleston
U. Dayton
2. North Carolina
U. UCF

1. Texas Tech
U. Saint Louis
4. North Texas
U. Florida
3. Arizona St.
U. Santa Clara
2. Penn St.
U. UNLV

Lurking: Duquesne, Villanova, Washington St., Nebraska

Feb. 19 NIT Bracketology

The end of the season is coming upon us really fast! Teams though are still rapidly rising and falling through the postseason picture. This latest bracket is a reflection of that fact. We welcome Texas Tech back to the bracket. Florida is falling and its best player is out for the season. Clemson is crashing (and lost to one of the worst high-major teams in the country). 

There are teams though coming to take the spots. One interesting one to watch is Nebraska. The Cornhuskers are now 14-14 and 7-10 in the Big Ten after a 3-game winning streak. If Fred Hoiberg's squad can find a way to take down Minnesota and Michigan St. in their next two games they'd find a spot in this bracket. 

Another hot team is Tulane. The Green Wave are 17-7 and have swept Memphis and won five straight games (including three in overtime). Now they've got a soft schedule, including a home-and-home against East Carolina down the stretch. There's not a ton of upside, but Tulane looks likely to secure an NIT spot.

It seems unlikely to me that all four Mountain West Conference at-large candidates will make the NCAA Tournament, but that's how I have it breaking right now. The least impressive resume probably belongs to Utah St. The Aggies are projected by Bart Torvik to have just one Quad I win, but they are projected to be 8-1 against Quad II. I think it'll be close (obviously) and that could give the NIT a nice West Coast flavor in the higher seed lines.

Note: I flipped Santa Clara and UAB in this bracket for geographic reasons. (They're close anyways.)

Last 8 NCAA: USC, Boise St., Nevada, New Mexico, Utah St., Auburn, Memphis, West Virginia

NIT Bracket (bubble in italics):

1. Mississippi St.

U. Cincinnati

4. Wake Forest

U. UCF

3. Michigan

U. Bradley

2. Oregon

U. Santa Clara

1. Wisconsin

U. Toledo

4. Colorado

U. Florida

3. Clemson

U. Vanderbilt

2. Seton Hall

U. Dayton

1. North Carolina

U. Furman

4. Arizona St.

U. Sam Houston St.

3. Texas Tech

U. Saint Louis

2. Penn St.

U. UNLV

1. North Texas

U. Marshall

4. Utah

U. Tulane

3. College of Charleston

U. UAB

2. Virginia Tech

U. Loyola Marymount

Considered: St. John's, BYU, James Madison, Louisiana Lafayette, UC Santa Barbara, Indiana St., Montana St., Akron, Syracuse

Not Projected To Be .500: Oklahoma, Nebraska, Ohio St., Villanova, Butler, Washington St.

Feb. 12 NIT Bracketology

The Northwestern Wildcats are nowhere near this NIT bracket, which is absolutely amazing! There are a LOT of teams though hanging around the NIT bracket, which is making this pretty difficult to figure out. This is my best attempt for what the bracket will look at the end of the season. As we've seen this week though, things can change fast. I'll be updating the projections as necessary moving forward until Selection Sunday.

Also, I've started playing with the seeds for geography. The biggest change is that UCF and Hofstra were each moved up a seed line and Loyola Marymount down two for geographic reasons. Of course we will never know if that's a case when the NIT bracket is released because the NCAA has started using the "U", or "Unseeded" designation to get around that issue.

Last 6 NCAA Teams: Texas A&M, Memphis, New Mexico, North Carolina, Kentucky Oregon

NIT Bracket:

1. Utah St.

U. Bradley

4. UAB

U. UCF

3. Clemson

U. Hofstra

2. USC

U. Loyola Marymount

1. Seton Hall

U. Louisiana Lafayette

4. Michigan

U. Cincinnati

3. Wake Forest

U. VCU

2. Wisconsin

U. St. John's

1. Virginia Tech

U. Marshall

4. Colorado

U. Sam Houston St.

3. Penn St.

U. Saint Louis

2. North Texas

U. Syracuse

1. Arizona St.

U. Santa Clara

4. Vanderbilt

U. UNLV

3. Florida

U. Tulane

2. Utah

U. BYU

Also considered: James Madison, Montana St., Indiana St., UC Irvine, Duquesne, Fordham, Toledo, Temple, Georgia, Washington, San Jose St.

Not .500: Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Nebraska, Ohio St., Villanova, Butler

Feb. 1 NIT Bracketology

The season is starting to wind down! As we enter the penultimate month of the regular season there are still a bunch of conference games to be played, but resumes are starting to solidify. Some trends are also starting to emerge. One is that the Atlantic 10 might be slight shell-shocked on Selection Sunday. The league, which is one of the best in the country (currently ranking 11th in KenPom), is pretty much guaranteed to send only its conference tournament champion to the NCAA Tournament. Assuming that champion is the same as the regular season champion, it could be hard for the A-10 to even get an at-large bid to the NIT. In the current scenario I have VCU as the A-10 champion and both Dayton and Saint Louis appear as bubble teams deep into the NIT bracket. The problem for the league is the quadrant system. Because so many teams are bunched up in the 129-176 range in the NET they're just beating each other up and creating bad losses. Dayton, VCU and Saint Louis are a little above that fray at 68, 81 and 85 respectively, but even that is questionable territory for a non-power conference NIT at-large.

And there are plenty of power conference teams to take those at-larges. The relative "flatness" of college basketball this season has created a lot of mediocre squads (a few that could make it aren't even in this bracket because the projections currently have them under .500). It'll be interesting to see how the final month or so of the regular season shakes out and what teams emerge. There could be a number of surprises!

One particular surprise in this bracket is Temple. The Owls are currently 116th in NET and have a losses to Wagner, Penn, Mississippi and Maryland Eastern Shore on their resume. So why are they in this bracket? They've won eight of their past 10 games, including at Houston and at UCF. Temple also finishes with a relatively soft slate in the American Athletic Conference. Their hardest remaining games all have the upside of potential QI or QII wins (Houston, @Memphis, @Cincinnati, @Tulane). If the Owls close strong they'll have a decent chance of making the NIT.

Last season the NCAA went with unseeded teams after the top four lines. I'm continuing that bracketing procedure with my predictions this season. It's also worth noting that The Barking Crow, which also does NIT bracketology, expects there to be a large number of automatic bids to the NIT. This could squeeze some of the bubble teams towards the bottom of the bracket. (I typically assume about 10 teams will fall off because of automatic bids, but it could be higher this season.)

Last 8 NCAA Teams: Auburn, New Mexico, NC State, Texas A&M, Penn St., USC, Oklahoma St., Memphis (the bubble is huge, I could've listed my last 16 teams if I wanted)

NIT Bracket (bubble in italics):

1. Wisconsin

U. Southern Illinois

4. Cincinnati

U. Saint Louis

3. Florida

U. Colorado

2. Seton Hall

U. North Texas

1. Pittsburgh

U. Dayton

4. St. John's

U. UCF

3. Mississippi St.

U. San Jose St.

2. Oklahoma

U. Georgia

1. Nevada

U. Syracuse

4. Oregon

U. Loyola Marymount

3. Utah

U. Temple

2. Utah St.

U. Utah Valley

1. Virginia Tech

U. UAB

4. Arizona St.

5. UNLV

3. Wake Forest

U. Washington

2. Kentucky

U. Santa Clara

Not Expected to Be .500: Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, LSU, Texas Tech, Michigan, Villanova, Butler, Washington St.

Also Considered: Tulane, Middle Tennessee, Rice, Belmont, Bradley, BYU, Hofstra

Jan. 16 NIT Bracketology

A couple more weeks of action really shook up the NCAA and NIT bracket picture. Part of this is because while the "elite" teams aren't quite as good this season, there is a lot of depth in the 39-50 range of the predictive rankings, which is where the last bubble teams and the top seeds of the NIT can typically be found. Last season for instance teams like Texas A&M (#33 in KenPom), Wake Forest (#35), Dayton (#45), Mississippi St. (#49) and Xavier (#53) were all NIT teams.

This parity means that the bracket looks complete different this time around. A few teams in here are projected NCAA Tournament teams at the moment, but this projection is for the end of the season. That's why some power conference teams with poor power ratings slip into this bracket instead (ahem, Kentucky and LSU, ahem).

Last 8 NCAA Tournament: West Virginia, Wisconsin, Memphis, Penn St., Texas A&M, Virginia Tech, Northwestern, Michigan

Not Projected to be .500: Villanova, Butler, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Washington, Washington St., Notre Dame, Colorado St., Wichita St.

NIT Bracket (bubble teams in italics):

1. Arizona St.

U. Loyola Marymount

4. UNLV

U. Georgia

3. Mississippi St.

U. UAB

2. Utah St.

U. BYU (dropped a line for geography)

 1. Indiana

U. Syracuse

4. Utah

U. St. John's

3. Texas Tech

U. Sam Houston St.

2. UCF

U. Charlotte

1. Pittsburgh

U. Saint Louis

4. Seton Hall

U. Oregon

3. Florida

U. North Texas

2. Oklahoma St.

U. Cincinnati

1. Wake Forest

U. VCU

4. Kentucky

U. Colorado

3. Maryland

U. LSU

2. USC

U. Santa Clara

Others Considered: Duquesne, Richmond, Hofstra, Tulane, Grand Canyon, Indiana St., UC Santa Barbara, San Francisco, Drake

Jan. 1 Bracketology

Happy New Year! The new year brings conference play. It also brings a solidification of the college basketball postseason picture. Quite honestly though, there are still so many questions to answer. Northwestern (what? omg! what?) has rocketed up the bubble picture. The Big 12 has every eligible team thinking they're making the NCAA Tournament and the Mountain West has a ton of teams that could be playing in the NCAAs or NIT depending on how the next few months go.

It means that there is a lot of uncertainty in the bracket right now. I was actually quite surprised how much my brackets and rankings disagreed with something like T-Ranketology right now. There is a lot of basketball still to be played.

Note: The NCAA used "unseeded" teams last season after the No. 4 seeds. I'm mimicking that style in this bracket, though teams right now are still basically in seed order.

Also, there are some fun teams included in the bottom of this bracket. I hope squads like Sam Houston St., UAB and Loyola Marymount are given due consideration if they're close at the end of the season.

Last 8 NCAA Teams: New Mexico, Kansas St., Penn St., Iowa St., Northwestern, Michigan St., Utah St., Mississippi St.

NIT Bracket (bubble teams in italics):

1. Iowa
U. Drake

4. Clemson

U. Oregon

3. Seton Hall

U. Texas A&M

2. Pittsburgh

U. Cincinnati

1. Utah

U. Sam Houston St.

4. Nevada

U. UAB

3. LSU

6. St. John's

2. UNLV

7. Santa Clara

1. NC State

U. Southern Miss

4. UCF

U. Mississippi

3. Colorado

U. BYU

2. Boise St.

U. Villanova

1. Wake Forest

U. Georgia

4. USC

U. Michigan

3. Florida

6. North Texas

2. Arizona St.

U. Loyola Marymount

Dec. 1 NIT Bracketology

I've never projected automatic bids, but now I sort of wish I did. The bottom of this bracket is... uninspiring. Also, right now the NIT projects as the West Coast invitational, with the Pac-12 and Mountain West sending just an absolute bevy of teams, all of which project into middle seeds in the bracket. I hope some of those teams separate themselves as non-conference (and conference) play continues.

Since the NCAA is doing its fun "unseeded" trick with the first round road teams I could've really shaken up the seeding here to get better geographical matchups (and probably will in the future), but at this stage I thought it'd be better to show true seeding.

The next bracket will probably be January 1, 2023. Enjoy December!

Last 8 NCAA Teams: Rutgers, Arizona St., N.C. State, Utah St., Penn St., Texas A&M, Wisconsin, Mississippi

NIT Bracket (bubble teams in italics):

1. Florida

U. BYU

4. Colorado

U. Clemson

3. Boise St.

U. UCF

2. Utah

U. VCU

1. LSU

U. Southern Illinois

4. UNLV

U. Washington

3. Florida Atlantic

U. USC

2. Wake Forest

U. North Texas

1. Seton Hall

U. Pittsburgh

4. Colorado St.

U. Stanford

3. Oregon

U. Providence

2. Michigan

U. College of Charleston

1. St. John's

U. Toledo

4. Notre Dame

U. Nevada

3. Washington St.

U. Villanova

2. TCU

U. New Mexico

Others Considered: Wyoming, Wichita St., Cincinnati, Syracuse, Tulane, Richmond, Duquesne, St. Bonaventure, San Francisco, Santa Clara, Dayton

Not .500 Per KenPom: Northwestern, Vanderbilt, Georgia, Butler, Boston College, Georgia Tech, Temple

Preseason NIT Bracketology

KenPom rankings are out! Conference polls are being released! Secret scrimmages are starting! It's almost time for college basketball season. The new KenPom rankings give me an excuse to update my NIT bracketology. Here's the latest as we head towards the kickoff of the new season. The next one of these will come after teams play some games.

The number of teams based in the western third of the country in the middle of this bracket made putting it together an absolute nightmare. Though with the new bracket principles, where teams below four seeds are just unseeded, you'd never know that I bumped Fresno St. up two seed lines to make the bracket work, except for the fact that they're in italics.

Last NCAA Teams: St. John's, Xavier, USC, Memphis, Texas A&M, Stanford, Saint Louis, Mississippi

NIT Bracket:

U - Unseeded teams. Italics - Bubble Team

1. Wisconsin

U. Southern Illinois

4. Utah 

U. Fresno St.

3. Wyoming

U. Boston College

2. Arizona St.

U. VCU

1. Maryland

U. George Mason

4. Florida Atlantic

U. Mississippi St.

3. Loyola Chicago

U. Marquette

2. Providence

U. Temple

1. Clemson

U. Colorado St.

4. North Texas

U. Penn St.

3. Utah St.

U. Washington St.

2. Tulane

U. Vanderbilt

1. Seton Hall

U. Middle Tennessee

4. BYU

U. Colorado

3. Saint Mary's

U. Florida St.

2. Cincinnati

U. Boise St.

Also Considered: UCF, Davidson, San Francisco, Abilene Christian, UNCG, Akron, IPFW, Northwestern, Pittsburgh, Wichita St., St. Bonaventure, Richmond, Santa Clara, Western Kentucky

KenPom Doesn't Think You'll Finish .500: Iowa St., West Virginia, Kansas St., South Carolina, Georgia, Minnesota, Wake Forest, N.C. State, Louisville, Georgia Tech, DePaul, Georgetown, Washington, SMU

Way Too Early NIT Bracketology

The 2022-23 season is still months away, heck nearly half of Division I teams haven't even released their non-conference schedules yet. Still, it's fun to start thinking about what the upcoming season could look like.

One way to do that? Way too early predictions! I've spent a bunch of time thinking about the upcoming season for the Blue Ribbon preview (I wrote mostly about America East, but also Stony Brook, Monmouth, Marist and Rider). In order to create this bracket I looked at Joe Lunardi's NCAA predictions, Bart Torvik's 2023 projections, and a bunch of the Way Too Early conference projections on sites like Heat Check CBB. None of them completely agree with the other, so there is definitely some ambiguity.

A few teams in particular that I think could be worth watching this season: Providence (the people love them, the metrics don't), Ohio State, Florida State (a good team with a lot of injuries, or a program on the down slope?), and a number of programs with new coaches (Maryland, Seton Hall, etc.).

This bracket only gives seeds to the top four lines (i.e. the Rd. 1 home teams). In its release announcing that the 2023 NIT Final Four will be played in Las Vegas, the NCAA confirmed that they will once again use that seeding process. I will therefore be using it in my projections this season as well. (Though I'll still denote bubble teams with italics.) Think this bracket is insane? Hit me up on Twitter.

Last NCAA Teams: Alabama, USC, Saint Louis, Tulane, Mississippi, Wyoming, Stanford, Providence

U - Unseeded teams. Italics - Bubble Team

1. Arizona St.

U. BYU

4. LSU 

U. Florida Atlantic

3. Saint Mary's

U. Kansas St.

2. Utah St.

U. Washington

1. Ohio St.

U. VCU

4. St. John's

U. Florida St.

3. Clemson

U. Louisiana Tech

2. Seton Hall

U. Penn St.

1. Cincinnati

U. Boston College

4. Maryland

U. Temple

3. North Texas

U. Fresno St.

2. Missouri

U. Colorado

1. Loyola Chicago

U. Southern Illinois

4. Iowa St.

U. Wisconsin

3. Rutgers

U. Marquette

2. Washington St.

U. New Mexico

Final Thoughts on the NIT Selection Process

The NIT bracket was announced last night at 9 pm on ESPNU, ending weeks (or months) of speculation of which teams were going to be in the field. Ultimately, the committee was left with 17 at-large spots to select once the First Four Out and automatic bids were handed out by the NCAA.

What they did with those spots was a bit of surprise, but maybe it shouldn't have been.

It appears that the committee relied heavily on the NCAA's own internal formula, the NET rankings, to select the top four seeds. The two biggest surprises (at least to me): Utah St. and Washington St. received No. 4 seeds and home games after being ranked 60th and 61st in NET respectively. Three other at-larges (Vanderbilt, Santa Clara, Missouri St.) ranked between 66 and 68. You can see where those selections ranked versus the three teams I had instead in a number of metrics in the table below.

Team	Selected	Seed (Implied)	NET	KPI	SOR	BPI	KenPom	Sagarin	Q1/Q2 Ws
Utah St.	Yes	4	60	83	132	86	44	66	5
Washington St.	Yes	4	61	81	109	62	55	59	4
Vanderbilt	Yes	4	66	75	75	56	65	69	6
Santa Clara	Yes	5	67	77	87	77	68	78	3
Missouri St.	Yes	8	68	88	94	81	63	77	5
St. John's	No		69	82	80	49	61	46	4
Belmont	Yes	5	71	73	63	63	82	82	4
Oregon	Yes	5	76	65	83	76	79	50	7
Drake	No		82	86	78	89	85	86	5
Virginia	Yes	6	83	74	67	67	84	65	7
South Carolina	No		93	72	55	87	97	90	7

The most surprising outcome when looking at these metrics is that St. John's was left out of the NIT. The Red Storm had a strong NET. Every eligible team ranked above them is playing in either the NCAA Tournament or the NIT. St. John's also had the strongest predictive metrics in BPI and Sagarin and a KenPom ranking right in range with the other contenders. Honestly, I'm not sure why they were left out.

The other surprise for me was that South Carolina was left out of the NIT in favor of Virginia or Vanderbilt. The Gamecocks had the best Strength of Record and second best KPI of all the teams in the table above. Those metrics are generally referred to as "Resume" metrics because they judge outcomes, how you played against the schedule you were given. South Carolina also tied Oregon for the most Q1/Q2 wins and swept Vanderbilt.

So what held South Carolina out? It appears to be its low "Predictive" metrics. South Carolina had by far the lowest KenPom and Sagarin of any team being considered. Theoretically these metrics explain how well a team will do in the future. I'm fine with using these as a seeding tool, but using them for selection seems to set a dangerous precedent. It encourages blowouts and undervalues a team's ultimate won/loss record. If the low predictive metrics are why South Carolina wasn't selected despite otherwise strong credentials that would be an important piece of information to understand moving forward. (It's worth noting though that selection and seeding seemed to follow general past principles except for this outlier case.)

Personally — if this is how selection was going to go — I would've taken St. John's and South Carolina over Missouri St. and a slumping Oregon.

The other interesting trend was the NIT's explicit move towards regionalization. I completely understand why this was done as we continue to come out of a global pandemic. The NIT has always tried to create more regional matchups, for television interest or just in the name of easy travel. (The first round starts only two days after the Selection Show.) This bracket leaned heavily into that idea, so much so that they removed the "seeds" from the visiting teams. That's great, I just wish I knew it was happening sooner. (Also, the implied seeds were pretty "reasonable" even without the lines.)

The regionalization probably favored teams like Utah St. and Washington St., where they needed a few more West Coast teams to fill out a bracket (though the fact that they received home games implies the committee was selecting them anyways). What's also interesting is the distinct lack of a Northeast presence. St. Bonaventure (at Colorado), Iona (at Florida) and Princeton (at VCU) are going to be taking some of the longest trips in the bracket because of a lack of regional competitors. (This seems to be another argument for the inclusion of St. John's.) Also, Rutgers being selected for the NCAA Tournament's First Four robbed us of either Rutgers/Iona or Rutgers/Princeton, which would've been a lot of fun. (Congrats though to the Scarlet Knights!)

Ultimately though this is the bracket. Enjoy the games! I can't wait to do this again next season.