Quick Reactions to the NIT Bracket

The NIT bracket is out.

Five quick thoughts:

1. Oklahoma opting out after missing the NCAA Tournament gave UCF a home game again. It's probably for the best. It also opened up a spot that was given to either North Texas, Xavier or Cornell.

2. Washington opting out created a conspicuous absence in the NIT bracket: A second Pac-12 team. The league only used one their automatic NIT bids. My guess is that what happened is that after Washington declined none of the other teams were ready to play again after finishing under .500. USC closed strong, but even they were probably finished. It's a pretty bad look though for the NCAA that in the first year of the automatic bids a league failed to use theirs. Though I guess that league will cease to exist soon.

3. The biggest shock to me in the bracket reveal was Xavier getting an at-large bid at 16-17 overall. My guess is that the NIT knew the Musketeers wanted to play in the NIT, because they had to have been talking to them in case they were needed in a scenario where too many Big East teams opted out. When Oklahoma opted out that created an opportunity, which Xavier seemed willing to fill. Good for them.

4. The second biggest shock as Bradley getting a three seed and a home game. Every other home game went to a team I had as a 5-seed or higher in my s-curve.  Bradley's NET is 57, which probably carried the day, but it was still a bit surprising. It seemed like the committee trusted the NET even with mid-majors this season (see Princeton's 2 seed), which is unusual.

5. I would really like to know what happened to Syracuse. The Orange had a better NET than some of the teams in the field, so it seems to me that it's likely they opted out, but 'Cuse is a team that's fanatically covered and there hasn't been any reporting to that point. Syracuse's Strength of Record was amongst the best in the NIT field. If North Texas or Cornell got a bid over them... That's questionable. Update (3/18): Syracuse opted out of the NIT. Their statement said: "We respect the NIT but our only post-season goal was to play in the NCAA tournament. Therefore, we communicated to the ACC we would not participate in the NIT."

I'll have more to say, especially about St. John's, but for now let's enjoy the games.

Final NIT Bracket

Indiana St., Pittsburgh, Oklahoma and Seton Hall are your NIT No. 1 seeds after being the First Four Out of the NCAA Tournament. I swapped South Florida and UCF because UCF is no longer an automatic bid. It's possible that Princeton could get a home game now, but it works better geographically if the Tigers are sent on the road (and it wouldn't be the first time the NIT committee did something like it). 

9 pm addendum: This NIT bracket was updated after I learned that St. John's, Pittsburgh and Washington were opting out of playing in the tournament. Oklahoma might also decline a bid. If that's the case then UCF would once again get a home game, probably hosting South Florida. It would also mean that another team would make the NIT. There are a lot of candidates for that final slot but either North Texas, St. Bonaventure, or Cornell makes the most sense in my opinion.

Also, Oregon's run to the NCAA Tournament, Colorado's at-large selection, and Washington declining means that the second Pac-12 bid would go to USC. I have no idea if they would take it because I haven't talked to anyone around the school because I had no idea they'd get that far down the list.

The NIT Selection Show is at 9:30 pm. Should be interesting!

NIT Bracket

1. Indiana St.

U. Loyola Chicago

4. Kansas St.

U. Minnesota

3. Utah (Pac-12 1)

U. UC Irvine

2. Ohio St. (Big Ten 1)

U. SMU

1. Seton Hall

U. Syracuse

4. LSU (SEC 1)

U. VCU

3. Virginia Tech (ACC 2)

U. Saint Joseph's

2. Villanova (Big East 1)

U. Bradley

1. Oklahoma (Big 12 2)

U. UNLV

4. USC (Pac-12 2)

U. San Francisco

3. Iowa (Big Ten 2)

U. Butler

2. Cincinnati (Big 12 1)

U. South Florida

1. Providence (Big East 2)

U. Boston College

4. Georgia (SEC 2)

U. UCF

3. Princeton

U. Richmond

2. Wake Forest (ACC 1)

U. Appalachian St.

NIT Bracketology, March 17

There was chaos last night. This bracket is the result of that chaos. Oregon and NC State both moved out of the NIT and into the NCAA Tournament via upsets that secured them automatic bids. That forced two more bubble teams into the NIT and also moved seeds around a ton.

Where I'm at at this point is that no one really knows anything. The bubble is historically strong and historically squeezed. I've never felt like I could be more off. And that matters in NIT bracketology now because of the automatic bids. This bracket would look a lot different if say Texas A&M or Mississippi St. miss the tournament instead.

Also, we've never watched the NIT Committee select the bottom of the bubble like this. So who knows what they'll actually do.

The NCAA Selection Show is at 6 pm. I'll have a new bracket after that reveal. If Yale or VCU lose I'll update the bracket accordingly. The NIT Selection Show is tonight at 9:30 pm on ESPN2. So we'll have a nice gap in between to wait and wonder. Good luck to everyone.

Last NCAA Tournament: TCU, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Mississippi St., Colorado St., Colorado

NIT Bracket:

1. Indiana St.

U. Butler

4. Washington (Pac-12 2)

U. San Francisco

3. Ohio St. (Big Ten 1)

U. Kansas St.

2. Providence

U. Boston College

1. Pittsburgh (ACC 1)

U. Duquesne

4. LSU (SEC 1)

U. UC Irvine

3. Iowa (Big Ten 2)

U. Bradley

2. Villanova (Big East 2)

U. Syracuse

1. Virginia

U. Richmond

4. UCF (Big 12 2)

U. South Florida

3. Cincinnati (Big 12 1)

U. SMU

2. Wake Forest (ACC 2)

U. Appalachian St.

1. St. John's (Big East 1)

U. Loyola Chicago

4. Georgia (SEC 2)

U. Virginia Tech

3. Utah (Pac-12 1)

U. UNLV

2. Seton Hall

U. Princeton

Others Considered: Xavier (for NET reasons), Saint Joseph's, VCU (in NCAA Tournament), St. Bonaventure, Cornell, Yale (in NCAA Tournament), Florida St.

Said They'll Decline: Memphis, Indiana, Ole Miss

NIT Bracketology, March 16

The NIT bracket is coming into focus, but there are still many games to play today that could make an impact on the bracket. Also making an impact on the bracket are teams stating that they don't intend on playing in the NIT.

Three teams have notably said they won't participate: Mississippi, Memphis, and Indiana. Indiana might not have been invited anyways, but Memphis had a clear at-large bid candidacy.

Mississippi was set to be an automatic bid to the NIT through its NET rating given the fact that I think Texas A&M and Mississippi St. were going to qualify for the NCAA Tournament at this point. (Only one needed to for Mississippi to make the bracket.)

I asked the NCAA and it turns out that the SEC will still get two automatic bids to the NIT even if Mississippi declines an invite. The official statement was: "Based on principles and procedures, the bid would go to the next eligible SEC team by NET." The next team by NET here is Georgia, so you'll see both LSU and Georgia in this bracket as automatic bids.

Note: I released a new NIT bracket at 5:45 pm on March 16. The Current NIT Bracket page always has the most up-to-date bracket.

Last NCAA Tournament: TCU, Oklahoma, St. John's, Texas A&M, Mississippi St., Colorado St., New Mexico, Virginia,

NIT Bracket (automatic bids in bold, bubble teams in italics):

1. Indiana St.

U. Butler

4. NC State

U. Minnesota

3. Iowa (Big Ten 2)

U. Bradley

2. Kansas St.

U. UNLV

1. Pittsburgh (ACC 1)

U. Duquesne

4. LSU (SEC 1)

U. Washington

3. UCF (Big 12 2)

U. Florida St.

2. Villanova (Big East 1)

U. SMU

1. Seton Hall

U. Loyola Chicago

4. Georgia (SEC 2)

U. Virginia Tech

3. Wake Forest (ACC 2)

U. Appalachian St.

2. Cincinnati (Big 12 1)

U. Richmond

1. Providence (Big East 2)

U. Boston College

4. Oregon (Pac-12 2)

U. San Francisco

3. Utah (Pac-12 1)

U. UC Irvine

2. Ohio St. (Big Ten 1)

U. Syracuse

Others Considered: Xavier (for NET reasons), Saint Joseph's, VCU (in NCAA Tournament), St. Bonaventure, Cornell

Said They'll Decline: Memphis, Indiana, Ole Miss

NIT Bracketology, March 15

 This is the latest NIT bracket. A few notes:

1. Memphis is not in this bracket after Penny Hardaway's comments after their loss in the AAC tournament. Florida St. is the beneficiary.
2. Indiana St. is in the bracket. The NCAA Tournament bubble is historically strong and I moved New Mexico in over the Sycamores.
3. Mississippi is 1 spot ahead of LSU in NET. That's the difference between the Tigers making and missing the NIT at this point. There's a similar, but not as dire situation in the Pac-12, where Washington is 1 spot behind Oregon for the last automatic bid.
4. Xavier is also lurking if Villanova or Providence surprise and get into the NCAA Tournament. It's worth noting that Xavier is even ahead of Seton Hall in the NET, so this applies even if the Pirates miss.
5. VCU is in the NCAA Tournament right now because of the A-10 chaos, but they'd be in this bracket otherwise.

Last NCAA Tournament: TCU, Oklahoma, Virginia, Seton Hall, St. John's, Texas A&M, Colorado, Colorado St., New Mexico

NIT Bracket:

1. Indiana St.

U. Loyola Chicago

4. Butler

U. Indiana

3. Utah (Pac-12 1)

U. UNLV

2. Kansas St.

U. Syracuse

1. Pittsburgh (ACC 2)

U. Duquesne

4. Mississippi (SEC 2)

U. SMU

3. UCF (Big 12 2)

U. NC State

2. Villanova (Big East 1)

U. Minnesota

1. Mississippi St. (SEC 1)

U. Florida St.

4. Oregon (Pac-12 2)

U. San Francisco

3. Iowa (Big Ten 2)

U. Bradley

2. Cincinnati (Big 12 1)

U. Boston College

1. Providence (Big East 2)

U. Yale

4. Virginia Tech

U. Richmond

3. Wake Forest (ACC 1)

U. Appalachian St.

2. Ohio St. (Big Ten 1)

U. Washington

Others Considered: Xavier (for NET reasons), LSU (for NET reasons), Saint Joseph's, VCU (in NCAA Tournament), St. Bonaventure, Memphis (has said they'll decline), Cornell

NIT Bracketology, March 13

Honestly, it was a pain to put together tonight's NIT bracket. There are seven ACC teams in this bracket, which makes it hard to assign every team somewhere without breaking bracketing principles. I'm not even 100% sure the NIT would follow its bracketing principles in this case. (It would've made was more sense for instance for Florida St. to go to UCF and Syracuse or Boston College to go to Providence.)

This bracket is as of 11 pm ET on Wednesday, March 13. There are still games going on and there are still NET implications to figure out. In particular, Xavier and Maryland are lurking right below this NIT bracket.

On the NCAA side, the main switch I made was moving Texas A&M into the tournament and Mississippi St. out. MSU just doesn't have the metrics of the other bubble teams and I find it hard to see them in the bracket.

Also, I still have Richmond and South Florida in the NCAA Tournament, so it's still possible two slots could open up there. Obviously that would dramatically change this bracket.

The biggest move on the bottom of the NIT is that I decided to replace Duquesne with VCU. The reason I made this decision was basically the NET difference between the two teams. While I think Duquesne's resume is probably slightly better, I'm not convinced the committee will override NET in that way.

I am heading to the Atlantic 10 live tomorrow during the day. I'm hoping to get a good look at Richmond, VCU and Massachusetts in particular. Thursday is typically the biggest moving day for the NIT bracket, so I expect another update late tomorrow.

Last NCAA Teams: TCU, Oklahoma, Virginia, Seton Hall, St. John's, Michigan St., Texas A&M, Colorado, Colorado St., Indiana St.

NIT Bracket (automatic bids in bold, at-large in italics):

1. Wake Forest (ACC 1)

U. Appalachian St.

4. Mississippi (SEC 2)

U. Memphis

3. UCF (Big 12 2)

U. Florida St.

2. Providence (Big East 2)

U. LSU

1. Villanova (Big East 1)

U. Washington

4. Virginia Tech

U. VCU

3. Ohio St. (Big Ten 2)

U. Loyola Chicago

2. Pittsburgh (ACC 2)

U. SMU

1. New Mexico

U. Minnesota

4. Oregon (Pac-12 2)

U. San Francisco

3. Utah (Pac-12 1)

U. UNLV

2. Kansas St.

U. Syracuse

1. Mississippi St. (SEC 1)

U. NC State

4. Butler

U. Indiana

3. Cincinnati (Big 12 1)

U. Boston College

2. Iowa (Big Ten 1)

U. Bradley

Also Considering: Xavier, Maryland, Duquesne, Saint Joseph's, Massachusetts, St. Bonaventure, North Texas, Yale, Cornell

The CIT Is Back!

An eagle-eyed Twitter account pointed out today that the CollegeInsider.com website says that the CollegeInsider.com Postseason Tournament is set to return for 2024!

The 16 participating teams will be announced on Selection Sunday, according to the site. There will be four pods at a host school with four teams each. Then the semis and finals will be played on campus sites.

This means 16 extra postseason spots for mid-and-low-major teams, which is great given the changes to the NIT selection process this season that are especially hurting the postseason chances of low-major teams.

The CIT hasn’t been played since prior to the pandemic. Marshall defeated Green Bay in the 2020 championship game. There was an attempt to revive the tournament under The Basketball Classic moniker, but it never got off the ground.

I have fond personal memories of the CIT thanks to Columbia’s 2016 run to the tournament title. Here was some of the NYC Buckets coverage from back then:

Appreciate Columbia While They’re Still Here

The Scene As Columbia Is The CIT Champion

Columbia Rolls Into CIT Finals Carrying Ivy League Flag

Columbia Setting Records As It Advances In The CIT

The Lions defeated UC Irvine for the title that season. Their head coach: Kyle Smith. I wonder what ever happened to that guy?

Another NYC-area team, Saint Peter’s, then took home the 2017 title. John Dunne was still the Peacocks head coach back then, which gives you a sense of the timeline.

It’ll be great for postseason basketball to be played on mid-major campuses this March. It also seems like the proposed pod format, along with a 1-16 seed ranking will alleviate some of the planning and logistics concerns that came with previous iterations of the tournament.

It’ll be interesting to see which teams decide to head to Daytona and play in the 16-team CBI and which stay on campus for the CIT. Both though are welcome elements of a college basketball postseason landscape.

NIT Bracketology, March 11

Welcome to Championship Week!

This bracket represents where I think things stand as we enter Championship Week. I am trying to avoid projecting conference tournaments as much as possible at this point. (Things have been wild!)

A few teams that you won't see in this NIT bracket (or near it): Richmond and South Florida. If you've been following along you know that those teams are currently designated as the automatic bids from the A-10 and AAC respectively. Of course, it's unlikely that both will win their conference tournaments (though both have the second best odds in their respective conferences - USF at 17.7% in the AAC and Richmond at 12.9% in the A-10 - according to T-Rank).

Indiana State also isn't in this NIT bracket. I took a thorough look at the NCAA bubble tonight and made the Sycamores my last team into the NCAA Tournament. I think there's a good chance the committee sees it that way too. At worst I would hope that ISU would be in the First Four Out and guaranteed some home games in the NIT, but you never know.

Other teams you won't see in this bracket? Xavier and Maryland. I am going to assume that the NIT Committee will continue to refrain from taking teams below .500, which excludes both the Musketeers and Terrapins for now unless they luck their way into an automatic bid or make a decent conference tournament run.

The bottom of this bracket is extremely fluid. Three teams: SMU, Bradley and San Francisco, are here basically on the strength of their NET rating. Only one of them (Bradley) is done playing. Appalachian St. has the most bizarre resume I've seen in a long time. They're 3-0 versus Q1 & Q2, but have six losses to teams in Q3 & Q4. In the past the NIT has cared more about who you've beaten than who you've lost to, which is why I have App. St., UNLV and Florida St. still in the bracket.

Bracket Math:

• NCAA Automatic Bids - 32
• NCAA At-Large Locks - 26
• NCAA At-Large Bubble In - 10 (to get to 68)
• NCAA At-Large Bubble Out - 10
• Remaining NIT - 22 (to get to 32)
• NIT Bubble Out - 12

Last NCAA Teams In: TCU, Oklahoma, Virginia, Seton Hall, St. John's, Michigan St., Mississippi St., Colorado, Colorado St., Indiana St.

NIT Bracket (automatic bids in bold, bubble teams in italics):

1. Wake Forest (ACC 1)

U. Appalachian St.

4. Mississippi (SEC 2)

U. Memphis

3. UCF (Big 12 2)

U. Florida St.

2. Texas A&M (SEC 1)

U. SMU

1. Villanova (Big East 1)

U. Loyola Chicago

4. Virginia Tech

U. LSU

3. Ohio St. (Big Ten 2)

U. Oregon

2. Providence (Big East 2)

U. Boston College

1. Pittsburgh (ACC 2)

U. Duquesne

4. Butler

U. Indiana

3. Cincinnati (Big 12 1)

U. Syracuse

2. Iowa (Big Ten 1)

U. Bradley

1. New Mexico

U. San Francisco

4. Washington (Pac-12 2)

U. Minnesota

3. Utah (Pac-12 1)

U. UNLV

2. Kansas St.

U. N.C. State

Still Considered (Least to Most Reasonable): Georgia, Saint Joseph's, Charlotte, UAB, George Mason, Massachusetts, St. Bonaventure, North Texas, Louisiana Tech, Yale, VCU, Cornell

NIT Bracketology, March 8

Here's a new NIT bracket as we head into the weekend. A few quick thoughts:

1. UCF is automatic bid, but might finish below .500.
2. Xavier also has under .500 / automatic bid potential if Seton Hall, St. John's and Villanova all make the NCAA Tournament
3. Florida State is an enigma, but the Seminoles have some great wins.
4. So many ACC teams made this difficult to bracket.
5. It was just reported Washington is firing Mike Hopkin, but the Huskies are in line for an automatic NIT bid if Colorado makes the NCAA Tournament.

With those out of the way, onto the bracket.

Last 6 NCAA Tournament: Villanova, Virginia, Colorado, Northwestern, St. John's, Seton Hall

NIT (automatic bids in bold, bubble in italics):

1. Wake Forest (ACC 1)

U. Bradley

4. Mississippi (SEC 2)

U. SMU

3. James Madison

U. N.C. State

2. Providence (Big East 1)

U. LSU

1. Pittsburgh (ACC 2)

U. Minnesota

4. Xavier (Big East 2)

U. Memphis

3. Cincinnati (Big 12 1)

U. Virginia Tech

2. Butler

U. Indiana

1. Iowa (Big Ten 1)

U. Duquesne

4. Washington (Pac-12 2)

U. UNLV

3. Ohio St. (Big Ten 2)

U. Drake

2. New Mexico

U. Oregon

1. Texas A&M (SEC 1)

U. Loyola Chicago

4. UCF (Big 12 2)

U. Florida St.

3. Kansas St.

U. Syracuse

2. Utah (Pac-12 1)

U. San Francisco

Others Considered: Cornell, Yale, Boston College, VCU, Rutgers, St. Bonaventure, Louisiana Tech

Still On The Board: Massachusetts, George Mason, Charlotte, North Texas, Louisiana Tech, UAB, Georgia

NIT Bracketology, March 4

The final two spots in this NIT bracket came down to essentially six teams: St. Bonaventure, Rutgers, Loyola Chicago, Yale, Indiana and Maryland. (I'm not completely sold on Bradley or San Francisco either.) If that was the actual decision there are a lot of ways the committee could go. Let's look at those six teams through the lens of some common metrics:

 

Team	NET	SOR	Q1+Q2 Wins
St. Bonaventure	66	91	3
Rutgers	91	77	6
Loyola Chicago	90	75	3
Yale	83	79	2
Indiana	101	68	7
Maryland	74	92	6

Maryland might have the best case overall, but the Terrapins also have four losses to teams in Q3 and Q4 along with the possibility of not achieving a .500 record. If the committee decided to go more predictive based, as it's leaned in the past, it's possible that Yale sneaks in over Rutgers. Maybe the Bulldogs also get a boost if they're co or outright Ivy League champions. If the committee wants to appease the power conferences and get a big name, maybe it's Indiana. (The Hoosiers also have two nice wins lately.)

The Big Ten teams still have quite a bit of basketball to play between the final week of the regular season and the conference tournament. Hopefully that'll help sort all of this out. The basketball is winding down though! Conference tournaments start tonight. That's a wild statement. 

I used to track the mid-majors that might need an automatic bid to the NIT. The page has been changed for this season to just list the No. 1 seeds and whether they would be in consideration for an NIT bid. A few teams like McNeese St. and Samford seem like potential bid stealers. Anyone besides Indiana St. or Drake winning Arch Madness would also have some ripple effects on the brackets.

Once again this week's NIT bracket does not include Richmond or South Florida. They're the automatic bids to the NCAA Tournament from the A-10 and AAC respectively. If they lose in their conference tournaments that would cause some shuffling at the top of the bracket (because Dayton and Florida Atlantic would leave the at-large pool). Also, you won't see St. John's here at all. The Red Storm picked the right time to turn things around and I wouldn't even predict they get sent to Dayton at this point. 

Last 5 NCAA Tournament Teams: Virginia, Wake Forest, Colorado, Colorado St., Villanova

NIT Bracket (automatic bids in bold, bubble in italics):

1. New Mexico

U. San Francisco

4. Oregon (Pac-12 2)

U. Minnesota

3. Cincinnati (Big 12 1)

U. SMU

2. Utah (Pac-12 1)

U. UNLV

1. Mississippi (SEC 2)

U. Florida St.

4. UCF (Big 12 2)

U. Memphis

3. Virginia Tech (ACC 2)

U. James Madison

2. Providence (Big East 1)

U. LSU

1. Iowa (Big Ten 1)

U. VCU

2. Drake

U. Butler

3. Ohio State (Big Ten 2)

U. Kansas St.

2. Texas A&M (SEC 1)

U. N.C. State

1. Seton Hall

U. St. Bonaventure

4. Syracuse

U. Rutgers

3. Xavier (Big East 2)

U. Washington

2. Pittsburgh (ACC 1)

U. Bradley

Others Considered: Loyola Chicago, Yale, Indiana, Maryland

Also Looked At: Massachusetts, Georgia, Boston College, Duquesne, Charlotte, UAB, North Texas, Cornell