Sunday, March 10, 2024

NIT Bracketology, March 11

Welcome to Championship Week!

This bracket represents where I think things stand as we enter Championship Week. I am trying to avoid projecting conference tournaments as much as possible at this point. (Things have been wild!)

A few teams that you won't see in this NIT bracket (or near it): Richmond and South Florida. If you've been following along you know that those teams are currently designated as the automatic bids from the A-10 and AAC respectively. Of course, it's unlikely that both will win their conference tournaments (though both have the second best odds in their respective conferences - USF at 17.7% in the AAC and Richmond at 12.9% in the A-10 - according to T-Rank).

Indiana State also isn't in this NIT bracket. I took a thorough look at the NCAA bubble tonight and made the Sycamores my last team into the NCAA Tournament. I think there's a good chance the committee sees it that way too. At worst I would hope that ISU would be in the First Four Out and guaranteed some home games in the NIT, but you never know.

Other teams you won't see in this bracket? Xavier and Maryland. I am going to assume that the NIT Committee will continue to refrain from taking teams below .500, which excludes both the Musketeers and Terrapins for now unless they luck their way into an automatic bid or make a decent conference tournament run.

The bottom of this bracket is extremely fluid. Three teams: SMU, Bradley and San Francisco, are here basically on the strength of their NET rating. Only one of them (Bradley) is done playing. Appalachian St. has the most bizarre resume I've seen in a long time. They're 3-0 versus Q1 & Q2, but have six losses to teams in Q3 & Q4. In the past the NIT has cared more about who you've beaten than who you've lost to, which is why I have App. St., UNLV and Florida St. still in the bracket.

Bracket Math:
  • NCAA Automatic Bids - 32
  • NCAA At-Large Locks - 26
  • NCAA At-Large Bubble In - 10 (to get to 68)
  • NCAA At-Large Bubble Out - 10
  • Remaining NIT - 22 (to get to 32)
  • NIT Bubble Out - 12

Last NCAA Teams In: TCU, Oklahoma, Virginia, Seton Hall, St. John's, Michigan St., Mississippi St., Colorado, Colorado St., Indiana St.

NIT Bracket (automatic bids in bold, bubble teams in italics):

1. Wake Forest (ACC 1)
U. Appalachian St.
4. Mississippi (SEC 2)
U. Memphis
3. UCF (Big 12 2)
U. Florida St.
2. Texas A&M (SEC 1)

1. Villanova (Big East 1)
U. Loyola Chicago
4. Virginia Tech
3. Ohio St. (Big Ten 2)
U. Oregon
2. Providence (Big East 2)
U. Boston College

1. Pittsburgh (ACC 2)
U. Duquesne
4. Butler
U. Indiana
3. Cincinnati (Big 12 1)
U. Syracuse
2. Iowa (Big Ten 1)
U. Bradley

1. New Mexico
U. San Francisco
4. Washington (Pac-12 2)
U. Minnesota
3. Utah (Pac-12 1)
2. Kansas St.
U. N.C. State

Still Considered (Least to Most Reasonable): Georgia, Saint Joseph's, Charlotte, UAB, George Mason, Massachusetts, St. Bonaventure, North Texas, Louisiana Tech, Yale, VCU, Cornell

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