February NIT Bracketology

I don't have anything insightful to say (I'm saving up), so a few observations as we head into February: 

1. The NCAA Tournament bubble is really flat right now. There are a lot of teams that have similar types of resumes hanging around the bracket. There's not a huge difference between my seventh-to-last team in, Northwestern, and a few teams at the top of this NIT bracket. That could mean that we're in for a big shakeup coming down the stretch.

2. Butler and Wake Forest are two teams that stood out to me as having a lot of chances to improve their resume down the stretch. Both the Bulldogs and Demon Deacons play a number of top ranked teams in February. For now I've included Wake Forest in the bracket and Butler not because Wake has built a better foundation.

3. A lot of power conference teams are benefitting from this new NET selection logic. I used NET ratings as of the morning of Jan. 31 for this bracket and they helped Washington, Georgia, Iowa, UCF, Ohio St. and Kansas St. all find their way into home games when I think the cases would've been much more complicated without it.

4. Memphis is in absolute freefall.

5. Cornell's NIT resume is better than you think. The Big Red were 79th in NET as of Wednesday morning and 100th in KenPom. They're also 15-3 and just beat Princeton. I still have the Tigers as the Ivy League's NCAA Tournament automatic bid, but either of those squads could potentially make the NIT this season. (Yale is also in the league race, but the Bulldogs have too many non-conference blemishes to make a run at postseason basketball without the automatic bid.)

6. St. Bonaventure had a better KenPom rating than Richmond (81 vs. 82) as of Wednesday night at 9:30 pm. I could see the argument for and the argument against the Bonnies making the NIT. I ultimately left them out despite a strong NET because they haven't beaten a single team in my NCAA or NIT field yet.

NCAA Bubble Last 6: Mississippi, Boise St., Providence, Washington St., Wake Forest, Nebraska

NIT Bracket (autos in bold, bubble in italics):

1. SMU

U. N.C. State

4. Iowa (Big Ten 1)

U. Drake

3. Washington (Pac-12 2)

U. San Francisco

2. Villanova (Big East 1)

U. Syracuse

1. Texas A&M (SEC 1)

U. North Texas

4. Kansas St. (Big 12 2)

U. Pittsburgh

3. Xavier (Big East 2)

U. Indiana

2. Oregon (Pac-12 1)

U. Nevada

1. Virginia Tech (ACC 2)

U. LSU

4. UCF (Big 12 2)

U. Memphis

3. Georgia (SEC 2)

U. James Madison

2. Virginia (ACC 1)

U. Richmond

1. Seton Hall

U. Cornell

4. Ohio St. (Big Ten 2)

U. Florida St.

3. Miami FL

U. Maryland

2. Butler

U. Bradley

Others Considered: Minnesota, Boston College, St. Bonaventure. Charlotte, UNLV, Stanford, Saint Joseph's, UMass, VCU, George Mason

Late January NIT Bracketology

This NIT bracket represents the results through the beginning of conference play. There have been some surprising results! A few teams on the rise include: Richmond and UCF. On the other hand, Memphis has suffered two close losses recently and the Tigers are now in real danger of missing the NCAA Tournament.

This bracket could really use some more West Coast teams in higher seeds. It was hard to figure out how to bracket teams like San Francisco and Washington lower in the bracket. Also, there are still eight ACC teams in this bracket, which also complicates things. Eventually I expect it will all shake out, but right now it's a bit of a mess. Gonzaga is in my NCAA bracket as an at-large team as is St. John's.

Just a reminder: I use current NET to figure out the automatic bids.

NCAA Bubble Last 6: SMU, Cincinnati, Ohio St., Florida, Xavier, Nebraska

NIT Bracket (autos in bold, bubble in italics):

1. Kansas St.

U. Pittsburgh

4. Oregon (Pac-12 2)

U. Nevada

3. South Carolina (SEC 1)

U. Florida St.

2. Northwestern (Big Ten 2)

U. Bradley

1. Providence (Big East 1)

U. Indiana

4. Drake

U. NC State

3. Miami FL

U. San Francisco

2. Ole Miss (SEC 2)

U. North Texas

1. Texas (Big 12 1)

U. Boston College

4. Washington St. (Pac-12 1)

U. UNLV

3. Iowa (Big Ten 1)

U. Washington

2. Butler (Big East 2)

U. Syracuse

1. Virginia (ACC 1)

U. James Madison

4. UCF (Big 12 2)

U. Georgia

3. Virginia Tech (ACC 2)

U. Richmond

2. Memphis

U. LSU

Also Considered: Minnesota, Maryland, Arizona St., Stanford, St. Bonaventure, Saint Joseph's, VCU, UMass, George Mason, Loyola Chicago, Charlotte, Northern Iowa, Southern Illinois, Santa Clara, Liberty, Stephen F. Austin, Seattle

Post CFB Championship NIT Bracketology

The moments after the college football national title game are a great time to check in on college basketball. Casual fans are ready to transition back to watching college basketball instead of football during the week. Eamonn Brennan released his first Bubble Watch today for instance!

Full disclosure: I haven't read it yet. So the opinions below are completely my own. They're guided by KenPom and T-Rank standings for now. Also, it's hard for me to predict how the NET will shake out by the end of the season, so I think of it as a somewhat static metric at this point. That's not true of course, things will change as teams rise and fall during conference play, but if you're wondering why Butler has a protected seed in this bracket and Seton Hall doesn't it's because of their 10-spot difference in today's NET rankings. (I also have all the Mountain West bubble contenders in the NCAA Tournament. That's probably a stretch.)

KenPom projects UCF to finish 14-16 (5-13 Big 12), but the Golden Knights are in this bracket because I needed another Big 12 protected seed. If two of Texas, Kansas St. and TCU manage to make the NCAA Tournament (because those seem like the Big 12's bubble teams) then UCF will be called upon to represent the conference in the NIT.

There are a number of Pac-12 and SEC teams at the bottom of this bracket. I don't expect that to hold. During Championship Fortnight some of the mid-major conference leaders are going to fall and not be in position to get an NCAA at-large berth, but they're going to be well positioned to make the NIT. That means those power conference teams at the bottom might get pushed out altogether.

Seeds for road teams are technically implied, not actual. I moved teams around somewhat liberally to get a bracket that made sense. The final eight teams on my s-curve are in italics.

Last 4 NCAA At-Large Teams: Providence, Texas, Northwestern, Boise St.

NIT Bracket (protected in bold, bubble in italics):

1. South Carolina (SEC 1)

8. St. Bonaventure

4. UCF (Big 12 2)

5. Virginia Tech

3. Virginia

6. Georgia

2. SMU

7. Arizona St.

1. Wake Forest (ACC 1)

8. LSU

4. Washington (Pac-12 2)

5. San Francisco

3. Mississippi (SEC 2)

6. Seton Hall

2. N.C. State

7. USC

1. Oregon (Pac-12 1)

8. Arkansas

4. Butler (Big East 2)

5. Minnesota

3. Kansas St. (Big 12 1)

6. Indiana

2. Saint Mary's

7. Washington St.

1. Xavier (Big East 1)

8. Boston College

4. Iowa (Big Ten 2)

5. Drake

3. Pittsburgh (ACC 2)

6. Saint Joseph's

2. Nebraska (Big Ten 1)

7. Stanford

Seriously Considered: Richmond, Syracuse, Louisiana Tech, Massachusetts, North Texas, George Mason, Southern Illinois

Magic Week NIT Bracketology

It's the magical week where the AP Poll predicts the national champion! (Don't know what I'm talking about? Read John Gasaway's piece on ESPN+.) While I don't think an NIT bracket at this point is that predictive, we do know something about every team in the country at this point.

We can also start to see how the new selection rules for the NIT might play out. I'm currently using KenPom as an NET proxy. It appears that at least one power conference team is going to get pulled from quite far down the bracket and into a protected seed. The most likely candidate conference right now is the Big 12. Say 10 teams from the Big 12 make it into the NCAA Tournament. That would leave just four for the NIT to pick from, potentially including having to take one with a losing record. In this scenario it's UCF, which probably wouldn't be in the bracket except for their protected seed, that benefits. The Golden Knights are 76th in KenPom, so they're not a bad team, but they're also projected to go 15-15 on both KenPom and T-Rank.

It's also possible that the higher ranked NET team in a conference like the Big East won't have the best NIT resume. Xavier, for instance, is ranked higher than Butler and St. John's in KenPom right now (just Butler in T-Rank), but it's hard to say the Musketeers will have a better resume than either of those teams come Selection Sunday.

It's also going to be fascinating to watch where teams like Memphis, all the Mountain West teams that don't get the automatic NCAA bid, and Saint Mary's ends up. For now I have a number of those teams in the NCAA Tournament, but there is a long way to go.

Last NCAA At-Larges: Kansas St., USC, Saint Mary's, Texas, Providence, TCU, San Diego St., New Mexico

NIT Bracket (Protected Seeds in Bold, Bubble Teams in Italics):

1. Texas Tech (Big 12 1)

8. Minnesota

4. Mississippi

5. Washington

3. N.C. State (ACC 2)

6. Missouri

2. Michigan (Big Ten 1)

7. Saint Joseph's

1. Oregon (Pac-12 1)

8. Nevada

4. Xavier (Big East 1)

5. Iowa

3. Butler (Big East 2)

6. Duquesne

2. Indiana

7. Drake

1. South Carolina (SEC 2)

8. St. Bonaventure

4. UCF (Big 12 2)

5. Rutgers

3. Arkansas (SEC 1)

6. Maryland

2. Virginia Tech (ACC 1)

7. Seton Hall

1. Nebraska (Big Ten 2)

8. Georgia

4. Washington St.

5. Boise St.

3. UCLA (Pac-12 2)

6. Utah St.

2. St. John's

7. Syracuse

Also Considered: George Mason, Boston College, VCU, Appalachian St., Louisiana Tech, North Texas, SMU, Richmond, San Francisco, Florida St., Tulane, Wichita St., Bradley, Missouri St., Southern Illinois, Loyola Marymount, Yale, Hawaii, Drexel, Kent St.

Feast Week NIT Bracketology

It's Feast Week! We're two weeks into the regular season of college basketball and things have been all over the place. Let's use our new two weeks of data to put together a new bracket before a plethora of games kick off.

The SEC really benefits from the NIT's new "protected seed" format here because South Carolina and LSU would barely be in this tournament if they weren't part of that conference.

The hardest team to figure out early in the season is probably Saint Mary's. The Gaels look like a 50/50 NCAA Tournament team given their early season results, but just missing the NCAA Tournament (as like the fifth team out) for a team from the West Coast Conference could be devastating in terms of NIT selection because of the new rules. You can see that here in how the bracket developed. They'd be competing with Mountain West teams for maybe one open home game.

NIT Bracket (protected seeds in Bold, bubble teams in italics):

1. Iowa

8. Boston College

4. Colorado St.

5. Washington St.

3. Virginia Tech

6. VCU

2. Ohio St.

7. Duquesne

1. Pittsburgh

8. Stephen F. Austin

4. South Carolina

5. Maryland

3. Stanford

6. New Mexico

2. Kansas St.

7. North Texas

1. Seton Hall

8. Florida St.

4. LSU

5. UCF

3. St. John's

6. Rutgers

2. N.C. State

7. UAB

1. Wisconsin

8. Bradley

4. Washington

5. Saint Mary's

3. Cincinnati

6. Boise St.

2. Northwestern

7. Yale

Last 6 NCAA At-Large Teams: Florida Atlantic, Nevada, Nebraska, Providence, Texas Tech, Michigan

Seriously Considered: Wichita St., St. Bonaventure, Indiana St., Missouri St., Long Beach St., Kent St., UMass Lowell

Considered: Penn St., Wake Forest, San Francisco, Utah St., Tulane, SMU, Loyola Marymount, Santa Clara, Richmond

Five Risers, Five Fallers A Week In

The opening week of the season is in the books and already there have been some shakeups. There has been some movement that could definitely affect our NIT outlook by the end of the season. Here is a quick look at 10 of the most surprising teams (five up and five down).

Five Up:

James Madison: The Dukes have risen 51 spots in KenPom through the first eight days of the season, second only to Purdue Fort Wayne. JMU already has wins at Michigan St. and Kent St., which is quite the combination. KenPom currently predicts that Mark Byington's team will go 23-6 and 13-5 in the Sun Belt. Given the remaining teams in the conference, that would probably mean taking some losses that would put JMU squarely on the bubble come Selection Sunday. Still, the Dukes seemed primed for at least an NIT invite even without the existence of automatic bids.

Michigan: I didn't even have Michigan as a protected seed in the NIT when I did my preseason bracket. My bad! The Wolverines have far surpassed all preseason expectations and are now 23rd in KenPom and look like a dangerous NCAA Tournament squad thanks to Dug McDaniel.

Princeton: While a 2-bid Ivy League is probably a long shot, the league does seem to be setting itself up for a potential NIT bid this season. Yale is still the class of the league according to projection systems (the Bulldogs did win at Loyola Marymound on Sunday), but the Tigers have victories over Rutgers on a neutral court and at Hofstra on their early resume. Wednesday's game at Duquesne is shaping up to be an extremely interesting NIT bubble battle as is the Dec. 2 matchup against Furman. How Princeton handles the rest of its non-conference schedule could help determine if the Ivy League positions itself for an NIT bid. (Shoutout to 3-1 Penn too. The Quakers just took down Villanova and are another one of KenPom's biggest risers. Steve Donahue's team looks like another dangerous Ivy League spoiler along with 3-0 Cornell.)

Utah: The Utes might also be playing themselves out of the NIT. While they haven't played the hardest competition yet, Craig Smith's team has stomped Eastern Washington and UC Riverside. Things pick up later this week with the Charleston Classic. Utah will take on Wake Forest and, with a win, potentially Houston and then one of LSU, Dayton, North Texas and St. John's. Those games will provide an excellent early test for a team that could be playing itself away from the bubble.

Akron & Toldeo: Let's cheat and put these two MAC teams together. The Zips have risen 20 spots thanks to a win at South Dakota St. and a comfortable home victory against Southern Miss. The problem for Akron is the quadrant system. They're going to have to do something in the Cayman Islands Basketball Tournament starting on Sunday in order to have a reasonable shot at the NIT because there aren't many Quad I or II type games on their non-conference schedule. Toledo, on the other hand, has a couple of shots thanks to games at West Virginia (see below) and neutral court contest versus New Mexico in the Ball Dawgs Classic. The MAC should be quite competitive this season between these two teams and Ohio and Kent St., so it'll be interesting to see if any of those four teams can put up a resume that will secure an NIT at-large bid.

Five Down:

UNLV: Wednesday's loss to Southern was one of the most shocking results of the opening week of the season. The Runnin' Rebels did follow it up by blowing out Stetson, but the non-conference schedule is extremely daunting. KenPom now projects that UNLV will finish 13-16 (8-10 in the Mountain West), which would be a far miss from UNLV's goals entering the season when I had them as a fringe NIT team.

St. Bonaventure and VCU: It hasn't been a great start to the non-conference slate for the Atlantic 10. The league hasn't had any of its top tier teams separate from the pack early on in the season and VCU and St. Bonaventure, which looked like potential postseason teams, have struggled early on. The Bonnies lost a home game to Canisius (yikes!) while VCU opened its season by getting beat by McNeese St. There's a lot of time for both these teams to get on track and the Rams in particular have an extremely challenging non-conference schedule in Ryan Odom's first season, but the early returns have me wondering if the Rams might take a little bit of time to gel. 

West Virginia: The Mountaineers lost to Monmouth at home on Friday, another one of the biggest upsets in college basketball this season. Josh Eilert was already trying to hold this team together with duct tape and having to play a Big 12 schedule is going to make it extremely difficult to play postseason basketball unless something dramatically changes. KenPom currently projects the Mountaineers to go 12-18 (5-13 in Big 12), which is a huge departure from their preseason rankings when I thought they'd be able to sneak into the back half of the NIT.

LSU: LSU lost to Nicholls St. at home on Friday and now the Tigers are projected to go 14-15 (7-11 SEC). Honestly, outside of the obvious NCAA Tournament contenders the SEC is pretty weak. It'll be interesting to see if one of South Carolina, Missouri, LSU and Georgia emerge as an obvious NIT team, especially considering the new automatic bid process.

Charleston: There are a lot of teams I could've picked here, but I think things are most dire for last season's regular season and tournament CAA champions. The Cougars lost by 18 to Duquesne on Friday and are looking at a 50/50 game to open the Myrtle Beach Invitational against Vermont. Charleston has a bunch of other tough games remaining on its non-conference schedule and KenPom is now pretty skeptical about what the Cougars can do against it. In addition, UNCW, Drexel and Hofstra seem to be legitimate challengers this season. The CAA seems likely to not have an NIT team at all.

Opening Day NIT Bracketology

College basketball season is here! Everyone is celebrating in their own way. Mine? Creating a new NIT bracket. This bracket follows the new rules announced by the committee last month. The 12 automatic bids that were given protected seeds are bolded. The italics represent teams on the bubble.

One of the biggest challenges with this bracket is that there were a number of Mountain West teams that made their way in after I looked at the preseason KenPom and T-Rank predictions. Putting that many teams from the same conference into the bracket with only one having a top seed (Nevada as a 4) is a hassle. There's some mid-major flavor here. But I'm not assuming teams like Liberty, Drake, Grand Canyon, Charleston or Yale are going to lose their conference tournaments. Those are the types of teams though that could also enter the at-large conversation in the far distant future.

Opening Day NIT Bracket (protected in BOLD, bubble in italics)

1. N.C. State (ACC #1)

8. UNLV

4. Cincinnati (Big 12 #2)

5. Seton Hall

3. Washington (Pac 12 #2)

6. Boise St.

2. Oklahoma (Big 12 #1)

7. Duquesne

1. Providence (Big East #1)

8. Washington St.

4. Nebraska (Big Ten #2)

5. Oklahoma St.

3. LSU (SEC #2)

6. UAB

2. Virginia Tech (ACC #2)

7. VCU

1. St. John's (Big East #2)

8. St. Bonaventure

4. Rutgers

5. West Virginia

3. New Mexico

6. Pittsburgh

2. Iowa (Big Ten #1)

7. Loyola Chicago

1. Utah (Pac 12 #1)

8. Stephen F. Austin

4. Nevada

5. Xavier

3. Michigan

6. Colorado St.

2. Missouri (SEC #1)

7. Wake Forest