NIT Bracketology, Dec. 2

The season has started! We're not even a month in, but a lot has changed. This is my updated projection. The biggest note is that I think the College Basketball Crown is going to have enough decent teams to fill their bracket, so it's possible some of the conferences involved might still send teams to the NIT. (We'll see.) In this projection that happens with Northwestern and TCU taking the Big Ten and Big 12 automatic bids respectively.

Also, we really need conference play to start so that the ACC, SEC, and Atlantic 10 in particular can start getting sorted out. It was like putting Jenga blocks together at the end of this bracket. (We could really use some additional West Coast teams stepping up as well.)

The only non-protected team in a top 4 seed in the bracket therefore is Boise St. (because the Big East doesn't have a team). While I have the Broncos projected behind San Diego St. in the conference standings, they were by far the highest in the at-large pecking order.

NIT Bracket

1. San Diego St. (MWC)

U. Oregon St. (WCC)

4. UC San Diego (BW)

U. St. Bonaventure (A10)

3. San Francisco (WCC)

U. Colorado St. (MWC)

2. SMU (ACC)

U. Saint Joseph's

1. Northwestern (B1G)

U. Loyola Chicago (A10)

4. Bradley (MVC)

U. Wichita St. (AAC)

3. Missouri (SEC)

U. Washington St. (WCC)

2. Florida St. (ACC)

U. George Mason (A10)

1. Oklahoma (SEC)

U. Rhode Island (A10)

4. Louisiana Tech (CUSA)

U. Wake Forest (ACC)

3. VCU (A10)

U. Vanderbilt (SEC)

2. NC State (ACC)

U. Florida Atlantic (AAC)

1. Boise St. (MWC)

U. Santa Clara (WCC)

4. TCU (B12)

U. Notre Dame (ACC)

3. North Texas (AAC)

U. UNLV (MWC)

2. LSU (SEC)

U. Murray St. (MVC)

College Basketball Crown

Butler (BE), Villanova (BE), Xavier (BE), Nebraska (B1G), Iowa (B1G), Rutgers (B1G), West Virginia (B12), Arizona St. (B12), Utah (B12), Washington (B1G), Georgetown (BE), Providence (BE), DePaul (BE), Kansas St. (B12), UCF (B12), Colorado (B12)

A New Preseason NIT Projection

I put out an offseason NIT bracket projection earlier this offseason, but that was before the news that the NCAA was changing the NIT selection process for 2024-25. Given those changes it only makes sense to re-release my preseason NIT bracket projections!

This projection still includes sending all of the Big East, Big 12 and Big Ten teams that appear to be in good shape for the postseason to the College Basketball Crown. This is despite the fact that those conferences will clearly be in Ken Pomeroy's top 12 and earn one of the preferred seeds in the NIT. (I wish I could be a fly on the wall when an Athletic Director has to explain to Chris Collins that they're giving up a home game to fly to Las Vegas for a tournament in a few weeks instead.)

I used KenPom's current conference rankings to determine the automatic bids. The at-large teams were determined by the preseason composite ratings I had calculated earlier that mash up KenPom, T-Rank and Evan Miya. While this doesn't match the NIT process exactly, it's a good approximation in the offseason.

The results are below. The only manual adjustment I made really was excluding Virginia from the bracket entirely. The Cavaliers have been rocked by the sudden retirement of Tony Bennett and it's unclear if UVA will actually be able to live up to its mediocre preseason expectations.

The other big change? Home games for Seattle (!), UAB, Louisiana Tech, San Francisco, and Bradley – These all come through being the projected second best team in a top 12 KenPom conference. (There are no automatic bids for projected conference champs with 125 rating or higher because I don't project top seeds losing in a conference tournament until it happens.)

Technically every 5-8 seed is unseeded and I could bump them around to get better regional matchups and such, but I want to give readers some sense of where a team stands in the pecking order prior to the season starting. (I might change the format of these posts in the future to help explain this fact.)

Projected NIT Bracket:

1. Oklahoma (SEC 1)

8. Loyola Chicago

4. Boise St. (MWC 1)

5. Notre Dame

3. LSU

6. North Texas

2. SMU

7. Utah St.

1. Georgia (SEC 2)

8. Syracuse

4. San Francisco (WCC 1)

5. San Diego St.

3. Dayton (A10 1)

6. UNLV

2. Louisville (ACC 3)

7. Western Kentucky

1. Miami FL (ACC 1)

8. Vanderbilt

4. Seattle (WAC 1)

5. Nevada

3. UAB (AAC 1)

6. Virginia Tech

2. Missouri (SEC 3)

7. George Mason

1. N.C. State (ACC 2)

8. Saint Joseph's

4. Bradley (MVC 1)

5. Colorado St.

3. Louisiana Tech (CUSA 1)

6. Georgia Tech

2. South Carolina

7. Washington St.

Other Teams With Automatic Bids (But College Basketball Crown): Northwestern (Big Ten 1), Providence (Big East 1), TCU (Big 12 1)

Other Possibilities: Wichita St., Florida St., Santa Clara, Stanford, South Florida, Massachusetts, Yale, Florida Atlantic, Sam Houston St.

The NIT Selection Criteria Is Changing Again (For The Better!)

The NCAA is changing the NIT Selection criteria again, but this time it's for the better!

The changes announced today include 16 "exempt" teams. Those teams are:

1. The top two teams from the SEC not selected for the NCAA Tournament
2. The top two teams from the ACC not selected for the NCAA Tournament
3. The top team not selected from the NCAA championship from the top 12 conferences (based on the Ken Pomeroy Rating) — and yes, the SEC and ACC do get to double dip here

The "top" team doesn't mean "top" in the standings though, which could have some interesting consequences. "The top teams from each conference will be determined based on the average of the teams’ ESPN Basketball Power Index (BPI), Kevin Pauga Index (KPI), NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET), Ken Pomeroy Rating (KenPom), Strength of Record (SOR), Torvik ranking and Wins Above Bubble (WAB) ranking. All rankings are already included in the “Team Sheets” used by the NIT Committee during the selection process."

The bonus for these 16 teams is that by being "exempt" they're guaranteed to host a first-round game.

The NCAA also announced that any "regular-season conference champions that are not otherwise selected to the NCAA championship can earn an automatic bid to the NIT as along as that regular-season champion has an average of 125 or better across BPI, KPI, NET, KenPom, SOR, Torvik and WAB rankings".

This will definitely shake up the field moving forward and appears to be a direct response to the College Basketball Crown.

I used Torvik WAB from last season to fill in for WAB, and if this system was in place last season I believe these would've been the "exempt" teams:

• Pittsburgh (ACC)
• Wake Forest (ACC)
• LSU (SEC)
• Ole Miss (SEC)
• Oklahoma (Big 12)
• St. John's (Big East)
• Ohio St. (Big Ten)
• Georgia (SEC)
• Virginia Tech (ACC)
• Utah (Pac-12)
• UNLV (Mountain West)
• Richmond (Atlantic 10)
• Memphis (AAC)
• Indiana St. (Missouri Valley)
• San Francisco (WCC)
• Western Carolina (Southern Conference)

These teams would also qualify under the regular-season champion exception:

• South Florida
• Princeton
• UC Irvine
• Appalachian St.
• High Point

Toledo would have just missed at 129. Quinnipiac would've been a bit further off at 149.

Why is Memphis the automatic qualifier from the AAC over South Florida? A four point difference in their average rating, which mostly comes down to how KenPom viewed the two programs last season.

Iowa, Seton Hall, Bradley and VCU would've made excellent at-large teams based on their rankings in all of these metrics.

In addition, the race for the "exempt" bid in conferences like the Atlantic 10, Big Ten (sorta), and AAC would have been fascinating to watch down the stretch. Most seasons the Mountain West, Missouri Valley and WCC could also fall into that group. It will give teams a lot of incentives.

If this system was in place for Selection Sunday 2024 it would've given UNLV, Richmond and San Francisco home games that they didn't have last season. In addition, Western Carolina, which missed the bracket entirely, would've been given a home game. Memphis would've also been invited as an exempt team, but they were on record as planning to decline an NIT invite.

In addition to Western Carolina, High Point would also have been invited to the NIT last season.

This would have unfortunately most likely taken a home game away from Princeton, unless the number of exempt teams declining allowed the Tigers to host at Jadwin. (This is essentially what happened last season anyways.)

Overall, these changes look like they could represent a positive step forward for the NIT. It will create better representation across college basketball and lead to some interesting teams receiving invites. The College Basketball Crown still hangs over this operation, with the likelihood that the best teams from the Big East, Big Ten and Big 12 will head to Vegas, but the NIT should have a very competitive field.

Preseason NIT Bracketology

The 2024-25 college basketball season is coming up fast! KenPom, T-Rank and EvanMiya have all released rankings of all 364 teams competing in Division I this season. I used those to put together this projected NIT bracket.

A few initial thoughts:

1. No one has any idea what to do with the College Basketball Crown. The new tournament is supposed to kick off in the spring of 2025. The original release said that it would include teams from the Big Ten, Big East and Big 12 "along with additional at-large participants". I have no idea how to interpret that statement. Given that the SEC and ACC decided to stick with the NIT for now I think we can safely assume that top teams from those leagues aren't going to play in an upstart new tournament. This projection only includes teams from those three leagues in my CBC tournament.
2. The ratings aren't in sync on a number of high profile teams. Rutgers is one of the teams I am projecting to the CBC for now. The Scarlet Knights have high-profile 5-star recruits and a team ranked in the initial AP Top 25. KenPom and EvanMiya aren't buying it though. Those two systems rate Steve Pikiell's team 63rd and 72nd respectively. T-Rank is much higher at 19th. Splitting the difference still leaves Rutgers as a bubble team for the NCAA Tournament. We've seen teams with that type of talent miss the NCAA Tournament entirely, so I don't think this is that controversial of a projection. Other teams that are in a similar boat near the bubble are Miami FL and Dayton.
3. The lack of Big Ten, Big East and Big 12 teams might create bracketing issues for the NIT. If teams from those leagues do opt out of the NIT, there will definitely be some issues bracketing the tournament. The reason is because it will likely result in a flood of ACC teams. Here I had to break procedure because I ended up with too many ACC teams for them to fit nicely into brackets. That could be a big challenge down the line.
4. I am assuming that automatic NIT bids still exist for the ACC and SEC. This doesn't really matter once you remove the other power conferences, but I'm assuming that those schools will still be guaranteed home games. The dissolution of the PAC-12 (at least for this season) means that this would only really affect four teams anyways. (The "auto bids" are on the 1 and 2 seed lines in this projection.)

Projected NIT Bracket:

1. Miami FL

8. Loyola Chicago

4. Utah St.

5. San Francisco

3. San Diego St.

6. Notre Dame

2. South Carolina

7. Syracuse

1. Dayton

8. Wichita St.

4. Vanderbilt

5. UAB

3. SMU

6. Colorado St.

2. LSU

7. Georgia Tech

1. Oklahoma

8. Saint Louis

4. Virginia

5. George Mason

3. Boise St.

6. Washington St.

2. Missouri

7. Bradley

1. Georgia

8. Virginia Tech

4. Nevada

5. Saint Joseph's

3. Louisville

6. North Texas

2. NC State

7. UNLV

College Basketball Crown:

1. Northwestern

2. Rutgers

3. USC

4. Nebraska

5. TCU

6. Providence

7. Penn St.

8. UCF

9. Minnesota

10. Utah

11. Washington

12. Arizona St.

13. Butler

14. West Virginia

15. Seton Hall

16. Georgetown

Other Possibilities: Florida St., Santa Clara, Stanford, South Florida, Massachusetts, Louisiana Tech, Yale, Florida Atlantic, Western Kentucky, Sam Houston St.

If you count, you'll see that the CBC bracket includes seven teams from the Big Ten, five from the Big 12 and four from the Big East. That seems about the right breakdown given how many Big 12 teams are likely to make the NCAA Tournament. Four of the CBC participants are projected to be under .500 if you look at projected regular season records on T-Rank right now (Arizona St., WVU, Seton Hall and Georgetown).

Is this really what's going to happen? Your guess is as good as mine right now. I'll be keeping an ear out for any news I hear about the college basketball's rapidly shifting postseason as we try and venture into this new world.

WAB Is Going To Be On NCAA Team Sheets!

The NCAA Team Sheets are going to have Wins Above Bubble! That was one of the excellent pieces of news that came out of the meetings of the NCAA's Men's Basketball Committee the past few days. Today it was announced that T-Rank (from Bart Torvik's excellent site) and Wins Above Bubble (apparently the NCAA's NET-based version) are going to be added to the NCAA Team Sheets, which will make them much more accessible for the NCAA's Selection Committee.

This is a big deal because Wins Above Bubble (WAB) often paints a different picture for teams that play a non-traditional power conference schedule (see mid-majors). It's especially valuable because it's so difficult for elite mid-majors to get certain types of games (home games against power conference teams for instance). Don't believe me? Here are the top teams to miss the NCAA Tournament according to T-Rank WAB the past five seasons (well minus 2020 because there was no tournament):

• 2024: Indiana St. (28th), Princeton (42nd), Seton Hall (43rd)
• 2023: Oklahoma St. (51st), Sam Houston St. (52nd), Santa Clara (53rd)
• 2022: SMU (38th), Wake Forest (44th), Texas A&M (47th)
• 2021: Arizona (37th), Louisville (39th), SMU (50th)
• 2019: UNC Greensboro (35th), North Carolina St. (37th), TCU (42nd)

Last season's Indiana St. team is the prime example of the types of teams a WAB metric can benefit. The Sycamores were 28-6 when they lost to Drake in the Missouri Valley Conference tournament final. Three of those losses were to Alabama, Michigan St. and Drake on the road — games most bubble teams would be expected to lose. WAB properly contextualizes those losses and also just how difficult it is to go 10-0 in Q3 games, which is what ISU did while playing its MVC regular season schedule.

UNC Greensboro in 2019 is another perfect example. The Spartans under Wes Miller were 28-6 on Selection Sunday and eventually ended up with an NIT No. 1 seed despite being ranked 100th in T-Rank and 87th in KenPom. Why? Because none of those six losses came against a team ranked lower than 62nd (Furman) on T-Rank that season. While a 2-6 record against Quad 1 doesn't look that impressive it matters than five of those games were against Quad 1-A and that they went 24-0 against Q2 and above. Wins Above Bubble is able to normalize those types of resumes.

Hopefully this will lead to a bigger tent in at-large selection conversations. Teams that might not have the "traditional" resume can at least get a shot. (Note: For much of last season this would've included a team like Syracuse.) It will also help better sort out resumes as conferences continue to balloon and the traditional home-and-homes disappear from conference play. (Look how many ACC teams appear on that list above.)

It's not just mid-majors that will benefit from this change, but it's a good step towards equity.

How ESPN Might Save The NIT

ESPN’s relationships with the NCAA, SEC and ACC might end up saving the NIT. At least that is my initial takeaway after reading a memo that the SEC’s Charlie Hussey, deputy commissioner/COO, and Garth Glissman, associate commissioner for men's basketball sent to SEC Athletic Directors on March 13, 2024.

The memo was sent in preparation for a meeting of SEC athletic directors on March 20. It outlines the pros and cons of signing on with the new unnamed (at the time) competing postseason tournament for 2025 and beyond. That tournament, announced on April 3 as the College Basketball Crown, will feature 16 non-NCAA Tournament teams in Las Vegas the week after the Elite 8.

I obtained a copy of that memo from the University of Mississippi through a FOIA request related to the NIT. The document was part of a 987-page production of email correspondence related to the NIT during the week of Selection Sunday.

The memo includes a lot of interesting information both about how the SEC’s main office was thinking about the College Basketball Crown and the NIT. Here are a few takeaways:

1. ESPN’s relationship with the NCAA (as the television broadcaster of the NIT) and the SEC and ACC (through their conference networks) is an important talking point.

Under “Option 1 (NIT)” the memo states that: “ESPN is the NIT's broadcast partner through 2032. If the SEC continues to send its top non-NCAA Tournament teams to the NIT, ESPN is willing to broadcast some of the SEC teams' NIT games on the SEC Network. ESPN offered the same arrangement to the ACC and its network.” 

 

This is important because the College Basketball Crown will take place on the networks of FOX (FOX or FS1 according to the memo), which would mean losing games to networks outside of the conferences’ typical television footprint. 

 

In fact, under the “Analysis” headline the memo states: “ESPN Relationship: As part of ESPN's recently signed agreement with the NCAA to expand its coverage of NCAA championship events, ESPN acquired the rights to broadcast the NIT through 2032. The SEC's relationship with ESPN could be adversely impacted if the SEC opts to participate in the FOX Event and therefore diminishes the value of ESPN's rights to broadcast the NIT. Additionally, to incentivize SEC teams' continued participation in the NIT, the NIT and ESPN offered to broadcast NIT games involving SEC teams on the SEC Network.”

2. The decision to join the College Basketball Crown is not a small one.

The memo states that the competition was looking for a 5-year commitment from each conference. Conversely, the NIT was willing to continue with an annual commitment.

3. The NIT was prepared to offer incentives.

Last season the NIT added protected bids for the power conference teams in order to stave off the momentum of an event like the College Basketball Crown. At the same time, the NIT also apparently raised the honorarium it pays to host institutions from 15% to 20%. In order to remain competitive with the College Basketball Crown, the NIT was willing to offer power conference teams further incentives. The memos states: “To further incentivize the SEC to participate in the NIT in 2025 and beyond, the NIT is potentially willing to make the following accommodations to an SEC team participating in NIT: (i) increase the travel party size above 25, (ii) increase the per diem rate, (iii) increase the honorarium paid to host institutions, (iv) increase the travel stipend, (v) provide host team sponsors with a percentage of rotating signage, and (vi) provide charter flight accommodations to the site of the NIT semifinals and championship.”

Those incentives make sense given that the College Basketball Crown was apparently offering: “Covered expenses for each team's travel party (up to 30 individuals) include commercial airfare, hotel rooms, ground transportation, and meals.” The NIT’s incentives make the decision quite competitive for teams from conferences like the SEC that could potentially host multiple games.

4. It does appear the College Basketball Crown’s is a field of “power conference” teams.

The memo states that, “The FOX Event intends to distinguish itself from the NIT by fielding teams largely from "power" conferences (rather than teams from a broader group of NCAA Division I conferences) and providing a premium experience for student-athletes, coaches, and fans.” How the tournament is able to fill out a competitive 16-team field drawing from currently three power conferences remains to be seen.

Given all of that, why wouldn’t the SEC stick with the NIT? Well the “Analysis” portion of the memo highlights three key factors:

1. “Watered Down” NIT: This is mainly a concern about what will happen to the NIT once the College Basketball Crown starts in 2025, but it does include this interesting sentence, “Further, the quality of teams participating in the NIT and its prestige already has diminished over time, culminating in the NIT's semifinal and championship games recently moving away from its longtime home, Madison Square Garden in New York.” It’s interesting that even the SEC’s office feels that moving away from MSG reduced the prestige of the NIT.
2. Power Conference Opponents: All you need to know here is that it includes the statement that “participating in the FOX Event would enable SEC teams to avoid the "brand damage" associated with losing to a school from a non-power conference in the NIT”. If that’s really the concern
3. Opportunity for Innovation: Basically, why not try something new?

Neither the SEC nor the ACC was mentioned in the initial press release that came out about the College Basketball Crown, so it appears that both conferences declined to sign 5-year contracts with the event. This of course does not preclude them from doing so in the future, but it does seem like the NIT has some potential ways to mitigate the damage done from this competing secondary postseason tournament.

Know more about the NIT or the College Basketball Crown? Send me tips at jtemplon@gmail.com.

On Dan Hurley and Close Games

Dan Hurley and the UConn Huskies are once again the champions of Division I men's college basketball. UConn is the first school to win back-to-back titles since Florida in 2006 and 2007. The way UConn did it though is also astounding. The Huskies have played 12 NCAA Tournament games in the past two seasons and the closest victory was by 13 points against Miami FL in last season's Final Four. It is as dominant a stretch as could be imagined.

That dominant run is also great for Hurley in particular, because he has historically struggled in close games. But if you never play in them — it doesn't matter.

The chatter about Hurley and close games died down a bit after the Huskies won their first title. This season UConn just didn't play many close games. The Huskies went 2-1 in games decided by four points or fewer. The loss was at Kansas on Dec. 1. (We'll get back to the Jayhawks and Bill Self in a minute.)

Eventually UConn will have to play another close game and what happens then is anyone's guess. Here's a look at Hurley's career coaching record by margin and school. A big thanks to Bart Torvik for the underlying data.

 

School	Margin	Wins	Losses	Winning Pct.	Pct. Games
Wagner	1-4	7	8	47%	25%
Wagner	5-8	9	6	60%	25%
Wagner	9-15	11	3	79%	23%
Wagner	16+	10	6	63%	27%
Rhode Island	1-4	21	31	40%	27%
Rhode Island	5-8	17	20	46%	19%
Rhode Island	9-15	37	16	70%	28%
Rhode Island	16+	37	13	74%	26%
UConn	1-4	10	6	28%	18%
UConn	5-8	22	15	59%	19%
UConn	9-15	40	10	80%	25%
UConn	16+	68	7	91%	38%

Hurley's teams at UConn have lost 72% of the 1-possession games they've played during his time there. It's almost unbelievable considering how good he's been in every other situation and even moreso considering how good UConn has been against elite competition. These should be 50/50 tossups and the only place that was almost ever true for Hurley was at Wagner.

Maybe though it's just that great coaches are: 1) Less likely to play close games or 2) Worse in them?

To test those theories I looked at five of Hurley's contemporaries: Bill Self at Kansas, John Calipari at Kentucky, Tom Izzo at Michigan St., Mark Few at Gonzaga, and Scott Drew at Baylor. Here are their results at their current (or most recent) school.

 

Coach / School	Margin	Wins	Losses	Winning Pct.	Pct. Games
Self / Kansas	1-4	76	29	72%	17%
Self / Kansas	5-8	83	34	71%	19%
Self / Kansas	9-15	131	27	83%	26%
Self / Kansas	16+	206	24	90%	38%
Calipari / Kentucky	1-4	48	45	52%	17%
Calipari / Kentucky	5-8	74	36	67%	21%
Calipari / Kentucky	9-15	112	28	80%	26%
Calipari / Kentucky	16+	175	14	93%	36%
Izzo / Michigan St.	1-4	68	44	61%	19%
Izzo / Michigan St.	5-8	73	48	60%	20%
Izzo / Michigan St.	9-15	124	50	71%	29%
Izzo / Michigan St.	16+	160	32	83%	32%
Few / Gonzaga	1-4	51	29	64%	14%
Few / Gonzaga	5-8	49	25	66%	13%
Few / Gonzaga	9-15	112	21	84%	23%
Few / Gonzaga	16+	283	16	95%	51%
Drew / Baylor	1-4	59	47	56%	19%
Drew / Baylor	5-8	72	50	59%	21%
Drew / Baylor	9-15	115	53	68%	29%
Drew / Baylor	16+	150	25	86%	31%

I probably didn't need to make this table for it to be obvious, but Bill Self is an absolutely amazing in-game coach. The fact that his Kansas teams have won 72% of their games decided by four points or fewer is just unbelievable.

Most of these coaches though: Have coached in a similar percentage of close games (with the exception of Few) and have won more of those games than Hurley. Few is probably an outlier in terms of the percentage of close games because Gonzaga plays their conference season against the West Coast Conference, which doesn't lend itself to a ton of high-level competition. Self is by far the outlier in terms of close-game winning percentage, but the lowest otherwise is Calipari at 52% (Drew isn't far behind at 56%). 

While it hasn't mattered during the NCAA Tournament in either of the past two seasons. Hurley's close game results are still fascinating. Does anyone have a good explanation? I'm all ears.

Two Interesting NIT Developments

Tonight is the NIT Championship game. The tournament, which has had extremely strong ratings and engagement throughout its 32-game run this March and early April will conclude with Indiana St. and Seton Hall playing a dream matchup at Hinkle Fieldhouse.

There have been a few interesting developments to the side of the NIT, including two in particular that I would like to address, because they speak to the future of the tournament (and this site).

Development #1: ESPN ran a graphic that stated 17 teams declined to participate in the NIT.

ESPN ran a graphic during the first round games that showed all of the "Teams That Declined NIT Inviation", according to the graphic's header. [You can see it below.]

This graphic is misleading for a number of reasons, and I've already addressed many on Twitter, but I think it's worth separating these teams into a few categories for context.

Category 1: Teams That Were Clearly Going To Be Invited And Declined (7)

• Washington
• Pitt
• St. John's
• Syracuse
• Memphis
• Oklahoma
• Ole Miss

Category 2: Pac-12 Teams The NIT Had To Ask (6)

• Arizona St.
• Cal
• Oregon St.
• Stanford
• UCLA
• USC

Category 3: Bubble Teams That Declined Or Asked Not To Be Considered (4)

• Florida St.
• Indiana
• Maryland
• St. Bonaventure

When you separate the teams into those three categories, things look a little different. Seven teams directly declined to participate in the NIT when they knew they were likely to receive a bid. There is no denying that's a lot of teams, but each had some reason for doing it. (Though only Washington with its pre-announced coaching change really made sense.)

Washington declining a bid forced the NIT to go down a list of Pac-12 teams that had already shut things down for the offseason by the time they were even being considered. College athletes from some of those teams had literally gone home by the time Selection Sunday rolled around.

Category three is pretty interesting. Florida St., Indiana and Maryland are all power conference programs that probably consider participating in the NIT (especially as a road team) beneath them. St. Bonaventure is a completely different institution with a rich history in the NIT. The fallout from pre-emptively declining an NIT bid that would've most likely been offered has (partly) cost the Athletic Director their job.

That desire to play in the NIT is especially strong amongst fan bases outside of the power conferences. I saw that this season in my bracketology and from the discussions I had with numerous people on X and other places. The NIT represents a chance to compete against a group of teams that schools from the tier of conference starting at the A-10 and Missouri Valley on down don't often get the chance to match up with (especially towards the end of the season once rosters have gelled).

Which brings me to Development #2 and what if that all gets taken away?

Development #2: The College Basketball Crown is announced.

If it had been announced on Monday, I think most people would've assumed that the College Basketball Crown was an April Fools joke. The tournament, which is brought to you by FOX Sports, is a 16-team tournament for teams that don't make the NCAA Tournament that will be played in Las Vegas from Monday, March 31 to Sunday, April 6, 2025.

The tournament appears to have the backing of FOX's major television contract partners: the Big Ten, Big 12 and Big East. Much like what was supposed to happen for this season's NIT, there will be two automatic bids from each conference into the tournament.

Beyond that, extremely little is known about what other teams will want to play in this tournament.

Theoretically though this is the can of worms that the NIT was trying to avoid when it changed its selection process to hand out automatic bids to power conference teams. It doesn't seem to have worked.

There are definitely enough good basketball teams to have a 48-team postseason beyond the NCAA Tournament. (At least when we have 68 teams in there.) I don't doubt that both the NIT and the College Basketball Crown will be able to fill their tournaments next season.

But if both tournaments are trying to attract schools that are big television draws, such as say Ohio St. this season, where will teams like the Buckeyes end up? It's hard to say. Can CBC automatic bids be turned down? There's a lot we don't know, but I thought The Barking Crow did a good job thinking through a lot of the implications.

One knock on effect though might be that the College Basketball Crown threatens the viability of the College Basketball Invitational. The tournament has run an awesome event that past few years in Daytona Beach, FL but I wonder if teams that might've played in that will now go to the CBC? [Seattle beat High Point for the title this season.] It'll be interesting how teams are redistributed.

I will continue trying to learn more about the landscape as we move into next season so that I can continue to deliver the best NIT Bracketology possible. But come Selection Sunday 2025 things might get even weirder.

Quick Reactions to the NIT Bracket

The NIT bracket is out.

Five quick thoughts:

1. Oklahoma opting out after missing the NCAA Tournament gave UCF a home game again. It's probably for the best. It also opened up a spot that was given to either North Texas, Xavier or Cornell.

2. Washington opting out created a conspicuous absence in the NIT bracket: A second Pac-12 team. The league only used one their automatic NIT bids. My guess is that what happened is that after Washington declined none of the other teams were ready to play again after finishing under .500. USC closed strong, but even they were probably finished. It's a pretty bad look though for the NCAA that in the first year of the automatic bids a league failed to use theirs. Though I guess that league will cease to exist soon.

3. The biggest shock to me in the bracket reveal was Xavier getting an at-large bid at 16-17 overall. My guess is that the NIT knew the Musketeers wanted to play in the NIT, because they had to have been talking to them in case they were needed in a scenario where too many Big East teams opted out. When Oklahoma opted out that created an opportunity, which Xavier seemed willing to fill. Good for them.

4. The second biggest shock as Bradley getting a three seed and a home game. Every other home game went to a team I had as a 5-seed or higher in my s-curve.  Bradley's NET is 57, which probably carried the day, but it was still a bit surprising. It seemed like the committee trusted the NET even with mid-majors this season (see Princeton's 2 seed), which is unusual.

5. I would really like to know what happened to Syracuse. The Orange had a better NET than some of the teams in the field, so it seems to me that it's likely they opted out, but 'Cuse is a team that's fanatically covered and there hasn't been any reporting to that point. Syracuse's Strength of Record was amongst the best in the NIT field. If North Texas or Cornell got a bid over them... That's questionable. Update (3/18): Syracuse opted out of the NIT. Their statement said: "We respect the NIT but our only post-season goal was to play in the NCAA tournament. Therefore, we communicated to the ACC we would not participate in the NIT."

I'll have more to say, especially about St. John's, but for now let's enjoy the games.

Final NIT Bracket

Indiana St., Pittsburgh, Oklahoma and Seton Hall are your NIT No. 1 seeds after being the First Four Out of the NCAA Tournament. I swapped South Florida and UCF because UCF is no longer an automatic bid. It's possible that Princeton could get a home game now, but it works better geographically if the Tigers are sent on the road (and it wouldn't be the first time the NIT committee did something like it). 

9 pm addendum: This NIT bracket was updated after I learned that St. John's, Pittsburgh and Washington were opting out of playing in the tournament. Oklahoma might also decline a bid. If that's the case then UCF would once again get a home game, probably hosting South Florida. It would also mean that another team would make the NIT. There are a lot of candidates for that final slot but either North Texas, St. Bonaventure, or Cornell makes the most sense in my opinion.

Also, Oregon's run to the NCAA Tournament, Colorado's at-large selection, and Washington declining means that the second Pac-12 bid would go to USC. I have no idea if they would take it because I haven't talked to anyone around the school because I had no idea they'd get that far down the list.

The NIT Selection Show is at 9:30 pm. Should be interesting!

NIT Bracket

1. Indiana St.

U. Loyola Chicago

4. Kansas St.

U. Minnesota

3. Utah (Pac-12 1)

U. UC Irvine

2. Ohio St. (Big Ten 1)

U. SMU

1. Seton Hall

U. Syracuse

4. LSU (SEC 1)

U. VCU

3. Virginia Tech (ACC 2)

U. Saint Joseph's

2. Villanova (Big East 1)

U. Bradley

1. Oklahoma (Big 12 2)

U. UNLV

4. USC (Pac-12 2)

U. San Francisco

3. Iowa (Big Ten 2)

U. Butler

2. Cincinnati (Big 12 1)

U. South Florida

1. Providence (Big East 2)

U. Boston College

4. Georgia (SEC 2)

U. UCF

3. Princeton

U. Richmond

2. Wake Forest (ACC 1)

U. Appalachian St.

NIT Bracketology, March 17

There was chaos last night. This bracket is the result of that chaos. Oregon and NC State both moved out of the NIT and into the NCAA Tournament via upsets that secured them automatic bids. That forced two more bubble teams into the NIT and also moved seeds around a ton.

Where I'm at at this point is that no one really knows anything. The bubble is historically strong and historically squeezed. I've never felt like I could be more off. And that matters in NIT bracketology now because of the automatic bids. This bracket would look a lot different if say Texas A&M or Mississippi St. miss the tournament instead.

Also, we've never watched the NIT Committee select the bottom of the bubble like this. So who knows what they'll actually do.

The NCAA Selection Show is at 6 pm. I'll have a new bracket after that reveal. If Yale or VCU lose I'll update the bracket accordingly. The NIT Selection Show is tonight at 9:30 pm on ESPN2. So we'll have a nice gap in between to wait and wonder. Good luck to everyone.

Last NCAA Tournament: TCU, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Mississippi St., Colorado St., Colorado

NIT Bracket:

1. Indiana St.

U. Butler

4. Washington (Pac-12 2)

U. San Francisco

3. Ohio St. (Big Ten 1)

U. Kansas St.

2. Providence

U. Boston College

1. Pittsburgh (ACC 1)

U. Duquesne

4. LSU (SEC 1)

U. UC Irvine

3. Iowa (Big Ten 2)

U. Bradley

2. Villanova (Big East 2)

U. Syracuse

1. Virginia

U. Richmond

4. UCF (Big 12 2)

U. South Florida

3. Cincinnati (Big 12 1)

U. SMU

2. Wake Forest (ACC 2)

U. Appalachian St.

1. St. John's (Big East 1)

U. Loyola Chicago

4. Georgia (SEC 2)

U. Virginia Tech

3. Utah (Pac-12 1)

U. UNLV

2. Seton Hall

U. Princeton

Others Considered: Xavier (for NET reasons), Saint Joseph's, VCU (in NCAA Tournament), St. Bonaventure, Cornell, Yale (in NCAA Tournament), Florida St.

Said They'll Decline: Memphis, Indiana, Ole Miss

NIT Bracketology, March 16

The NIT bracket is coming into focus, but there are still many games to play today that could make an impact on the bracket. Also making an impact on the bracket are teams stating that they don't intend on playing in the NIT.

Three teams have notably said they won't participate: Mississippi, Memphis, and Indiana. Indiana might not have been invited anyways, but Memphis had a clear at-large bid candidacy.

Mississippi was set to be an automatic bid to the NIT through its NET rating given the fact that I think Texas A&M and Mississippi St. were going to qualify for the NCAA Tournament at this point. (Only one needed to for Mississippi to make the bracket.)

I asked the NCAA and it turns out that the SEC will still get two automatic bids to the NIT even if Mississippi declines an invite. The official statement was: "Based on principles and procedures, the bid would go to the next eligible SEC team by NET." The next team by NET here is Georgia, so you'll see both LSU and Georgia in this bracket as automatic bids.

Note: I released a new NIT bracket at 5:45 pm on March 16. The Current NIT Bracket page always has the most up-to-date bracket.

Last NCAA Tournament: TCU, Oklahoma, St. John's, Texas A&M, Mississippi St., Colorado St., New Mexico, Virginia,

NIT Bracket (automatic bids in bold, bubble teams in italics):

1. Indiana St.

U. Butler

4. NC State

U. Minnesota

3. Iowa (Big Ten 2)

U. Bradley

2. Kansas St.

U. UNLV

1. Pittsburgh (ACC 1)

U. Duquesne

4. LSU (SEC 1)

U. Washington

3. UCF (Big 12 2)

U. Florida St.

2. Villanova (Big East 1)

U. SMU

1. Seton Hall

U. Loyola Chicago

4. Georgia (SEC 2)

U. Virginia Tech

3. Wake Forest (ACC 2)

U. Appalachian St.

2. Cincinnati (Big 12 1)

U. Richmond

1. Providence (Big East 2)

U. Boston College

4. Oregon (Pac-12 2)

U. San Francisco

3. Utah (Pac-12 1)

U. UC Irvine

2. Ohio St. (Big Ten 1)

U. Syracuse

Others Considered: Xavier (for NET reasons), Saint Joseph's, VCU (in NCAA Tournament), St. Bonaventure, Cornell

Said They'll Decline: Memphis, Indiana, Ole Miss

NIT Bracketology, March 15

 This is the latest NIT bracket. A few notes:

1. Memphis is not in this bracket after Penny Hardaway's comments after their loss in the AAC tournament. Florida St. is the beneficiary.
2. Indiana St. is in the bracket. The NCAA Tournament bubble is historically strong and I moved New Mexico in over the Sycamores.
3. Mississippi is 1 spot ahead of LSU in NET. That's the difference between the Tigers making and missing the NIT at this point. There's a similar, but not as dire situation in the Pac-12, where Washington is 1 spot behind Oregon for the last automatic bid.
4. Xavier is also lurking if Villanova or Providence surprise and get into the NCAA Tournament. It's worth noting that Xavier is even ahead of Seton Hall in the NET, so this applies even if the Pirates miss.
5. VCU is in the NCAA Tournament right now because of the A-10 chaos, but they'd be in this bracket otherwise.

Last NCAA Tournament: TCU, Oklahoma, Virginia, Seton Hall, St. John's, Texas A&M, Colorado, Colorado St., New Mexico

NIT Bracket:

1. Indiana St.

U. Loyola Chicago

4. Butler

U. Indiana

3. Utah (Pac-12 1)

U. UNLV

2. Kansas St.

U. Syracuse

1. Pittsburgh (ACC 2)

U. Duquesne

4. Mississippi (SEC 2)

U. SMU

3. UCF (Big 12 2)

U. NC State

2. Villanova (Big East 1)

U. Minnesota

1. Mississippi St. (SEC 1)

U. Florida St.

4. Oregon (Pac-12 2)

U. San Francisco

3. Iowa (Big Ten 2)

U. Bradley

2. Cincinnati (Big 12 1)

U. Boston College

1. Providence (Big East 2)

U. Yale

4. Virginia Tech

U. Richmond

3. Wake Forest (ACC 1)

U. Appalachian St.

2. Ohio St. (Big Ten 1)

U. Washington

Others Considered: Xavier (for NET reasons), LSU (for NET reasons), Saint Joseph's, VCU (in NCAA Tournament), St. Bonaventure, Memphis (has said they'll decline), Cornell

NIT Bracketology, March 13

Honestly, it was a pain to put together tonight's NIT bracket. There are seven ACC teams in this bracket, which makes it hard to assign every team somewhere without breaking bracketing principles. I'm not even 100% sure the NIT would follow its bracketing principles in this case. (It would've made was more sense for instance for Florida St. to go to UCF and Syracuse or Boston College to go to Providence.)

This bracket is as of 11 pm ET on Wednesday, March 13. There are still games going on and there are still NET implications to figure out. In particular, Xavier and Maryland are lurking right below this NIT bracket.

On the NCAA side, the main switch I made was moving Texas A&M into the tournament and Mississippi St. out. MSU just doesn't have the metrics of the other bubble teams and I find it hard to see them in the bracket.

Also, I still have Richmond and South Florida in the NCAA Tournament, so it's still possible two slots could open up there. Obviously that would dramatically change this bracket.

The biggest move on the bottom of the NIT is that I decided to replace Duquesne with VCU. The reason I made this decision was basically the NET difference between the two teams. While I think Duquesne's resume is probably slightly better, I'm not convinced the committee will override NET in that way.

I am heading to the Atlantic 10 live tomorrow during the day. I'm hoping to get a good look at Richmond, VCU and Massachusetts in particular. Thursday is typically the biggest moving day for the NIT bracket, so I expect another update late tomorrow.

Last NCAA Teams: TCU, Oklahoma, Virginia, Seton Hall, St. John's, Michigan St., Texas A&M, Colorado, Colorado St., Indiana St.

NIT Bracket (automatic bids in bold, at-large in italics):

1. Wake Forest (ACC 1)

U. Appalachian St.

4. Mississippi (SEC 2)

U. Memphis

3. UCF (Big 12 2)

U. Florida St.

2. Providence (Big East 2)

U. LSU

1. Villanova (Big East 1)

U. Washington

4. Virginia Tech

U. VCU

3. Ohio St. (Big Ten 2)

U. Loyola Chicago

2. Pittsburgh (ACC 2)

U. SMU

1. New Mexico

U. Minnesota

4. Oregon (Pac-12 2)

U. San Francisco

3. Utah (Pac-12 1)

U. UNLV

2. Kansas St.

U. Syracuse

1. Mississippi St. (SEC 1)

U. NC State

4. Butler

U. Indiana

3. Cincinnati (Big 12 1)

U. Boston College

2. Iowa (Big Ten 1)

U. Bradley

Also Considering: Xavier, Maryland, Duquesne, Saint Joseph's, Massachusetts, St. Bonaventure, North Texas, Yale, Cornell

The CIT Is Back!

An eagle-eyed Twitter account pointed out today that the CollegeInsider.com website says that the CollegeInsider.com Postseason Tournament is set to return for 2024!

The 16 participating teams will be announced on Selection Sunday, according to the site. There will be four pods at a host school with four teams each. Then the semis and finals will be played on campus sites.

This means 16 extra postseason spots for mid-and-low-major teams, which is great given the changes to the NIT selection process this season that are especially hurting the postseason chances of low-major teams.

The CIT hasn’t been played since prior to the pandemic. Marshall defeated Green Bay in the 2020 championship game. There was an attempt to revive the tournament under The Basketball Classic moniker, but it never got off the ground.

I have fond personal memories of the CIT thanks to Columbia’s 2016 run to the tournament title. Here was some of the NYC Buckets coverage from back then:

Appreciate Columbia While They’re Still Here

The Scene As Columbia Is The CIT Champion

Columbia Rolls Into CIT Finals Carrying Ivy League Flag

Columbia Setting Records As It Advances In The CIT

The Lions defeated UC Irvine for the title that season. Their head coach: Kyle Smith. I wonder what ever happened to that guy?

Another NYC-area team, Saint Peter’s, then took home the 2017 title. John Dunne was still the Peacocks head coach back then, which gives you a sense of the timeline.

It’ll be great for postseason basketball to be played on mid-major campuses this March. It also seems like the proposed pod format, along with a 1-16 seed ranking will alleviate some of the planning and logistics concerns that came with previous iterations of the tournament.

It’ll be interesting to see which teams decide to head to Daytona and play in the 16-team CBI and which stay on campus for the CIT. Both though are welcome elements of a college basketball postseason landscape.

NIT Bracketology, March 11

Welcome to Championship Week!

This bracket represents where I think things stand as we enter Championship Week. I am trying to avoid projecting conference tournaments as much as possible at this point. (Things have been wild!)

A few teams that you won't see in this NIT bracket (or near it): Richmond and South Florida. If you've been following along you know that those teams are currently designated as the automatic bids from the A-10 and AAC respectively. Of course, it's unlikely that both will win their conference tournaments (though both have the second best odds in their respective conferences - USF at 17.7% in the AAC and Richmond at 12.9% in the A-10 - according to T-Rank).

Indiana State also isn't in this NIT bracket. I took a thorough look at the NCAA bubble tonight and made the Sycamores my last team into the NCAA Tournament. I think there's a good chance the committee sees it that way too. At worst I would hope that ISU would be in the First Four Out and guaranteed some home games in the NIT, but you never know.

Other teams you won't see in this bracket? Xavier and Maryland. I am going to assume that the NIT Committee will continue to refrain from taking teams below .500, which excludes both the Musketeers and Terrapins for now unless they luck their way into an automatic bid or make a decent conference tournament run.

The bottom of this bracket is extremely fluid. Three teams: SMU, Bradley and San Francisco, are here basically on the strength of their NET rating. Only one of them (Bradley) is done playing. Appalachian St. has the most bizarre resume I've seen in a long time. They're 3-0 versus Q1 & Q2, but have six losses to teams in Q3 & Q4. In the past the NIT has cared more about who you've beaten than who you've lost to, which is why I have App. St., UNLV and Florida St. still in the bracket.

Bracket Math:

• NCAA Automatic Bids - 32
• NCAA At-Large Locks - 26
• NCAA At-Large Bubble In - 10 (to get to 68)
• NCAA At-Large Bubble Out - 10
• Remaining NIT - 22 (to get to 32)
• NIT Bubble Out - 12

Last NCAA Teams In: TCU, Oklahoma, Virginia, Seton Hall, St. John's, Michigan St., Mississippi St., Colorado, Colorado St., Indiana St.

NIT Bracket (automatic bids in bold, bubble teams in italics):

1. Wake Forest (ACC 1)

U. Appalachian St.

4. Mississippi (SEC 2)

U. Memphis

3. UCF (Big 12 2)

U. Florida St.

2. Texas A&M (SEC 1)

U. SMU

1. Villanova (Big East 1)

U. Loyola Chicago

4. Virginia Tech

U. LSU

3. Ohio St. (Big Ten 2)

U. Oregon

2. Providence (Big East 2)

U. Boston College

1. Pittsburgh (ACC 2)

U. Duquesne

4. Butler

U. Indiana

3. Cincinnati (Big 12 1)

U. Syracuse

2. Iowa (Big Ten 1)

U. Bradley

1. New Mexico

U. San Francisco

4. Washington (Pac-12 2)

U. Minnesota

3. Utah (Pac-12 1)

U. UNLV

2. Kansas St.

U. N.C. State

Still Considered (Least to Most Reasonable): Georgia, Saint Joseph's, Charlotte, UAB, George Mason, Massachusetts, St. Bonaventure, North Texas, Louisiana Tech, Yale, VCU, Cornell

NIT Bracketology, March 8

Here's a new NIT bracket as we head into the weekend. A few quick thoughts:

1. UCF is automatic bid, but might finish below .500.
2. Xavier also has under .500 / automatic bid potential if Seton Hall, St. John's and Villanova all make the NCAA Tournament
3. Florida State is an enigma, but the Seminoles have some great wins.
4. So many ACC teams made this difficult to bracket.
5. It was just reported Washington is firing Mike Hopkin, but the Huskies are in line for an automatic NIT bid if Colorado makes the NCAA Tournament.

With those out of the way, onto the bracket.

Last 6 NCAA Tournament: Villanova, Virginia, Colorado, Northwestern, St. John's, Seton Hall

NIT (automatic bids in bold, bubble in italics):

1. Wake Forest (ACC 1)

U. Bradley

4. Mississippi (SEC 2)

U. SMU

3. James Madison

U. N.C. State

2. Providence (Big East 1)

U. LSU

1. Pittsburgh (ACC 2)

U. Minnesota

4. Xavier (Big East 2)

U. Memphis

3. Cincinnati (Big 12 1)

U. Virginia Tech

2. Butler

U. Indiana

1. Iowa (Big Ten 1)

U. Duquesne

4. Washington (Pac-12 2)

U. UNLV

3. Ohio St. (Big Ten 2)

U. Drake

2. New Mexico

U. Oregon

1. Texas A&M (SEC 1)

U. Loyola Chicago

4. UCF (Big 12 2)

U. Florida St.

3. Kansas St.

U. Syracuse

2. Utah (Pac-12 1)

U. San Francisco

Others Considered: Cornell, Yale, Boston College, VCU, Rutgers, St. Bonaventure, Louisiana Tech

Still On The Board: Massachusetts, George Mason, Charlotte, North Texas, Louisiana Tech, UAB, Georgia

NIT Bracketology, March 4

The final two spots in this NIT bracket came down to essentially six teams: St. Bonaventure, Rutgers, Loyola Chicago, Yale, Indiana and Maryland. (I'm not completely sold on Bradley or San Francisco either.) If that was the actual decision there are a lot of ways the committee could go. Let's look at those six teams through the lens of some common metrics:

 

Team	NET	SOR	Q1+Q2 Wins
St. Bonaventure	66	91	3
Rutgers	91	77	6
Loyola Chicago	90	75	3
Yale	83	79	2
Indiana	101	68	7
Maryland	74	92	6

Maryland might have the best case overall, but the Terrapins also have four losses to teams in Q3 and Q4 along with the possibility of not achieving a .500 record. If the committee decided to go more predictive based, as it's leaned in the past, it's possible that Yale sneaks in over Rutgers. Maybe the Bulldogs also get a boost if they're co or outright Ivy League champions. If the committee wants to appease the power conferences and get a big name, maybe it's Indiana. (The Hoosiers also have two nice wins lately.)

The Big Ten teams still have quite a bit of basketball to play between the final week of the regular season and the conference tournament. Hopefully that'll help sort all of this out. The basketball is winding down though! Conference tournaments start tonight. That's a wild statement. 

I used to track the mid-majors that might need an automatic bid to the NIT. The page has been changed for this season to just list the No. 1 seeds and whether they would be in consideration for an NIT bid. A few teams like McNeese St. and Samford seem like potential bid stealers. Anyone besides Indiana St. or Drake winning Arch Madness would also have some ripple effects on the brackets.

Once again this week's NIT bracket does not include Richmond or South Florida. They're the automatic bids to the NCAA Tournament from the A-10 and AAC respectively. If they lose in their conference tournaments that would cause some shuffling at the top of the bracket (because Dayton and Florida Atlantic would leave the at-large pool). Also, you won't see St. John's here at all. The Red Storm picked the right time to turn things around and I wouldn't even predict they get sent to Dayton at this point. 

Last 5 NCAA Tournament Teams: Virginia, Wake Forest, Colorado, Colorado St., Villanova

NIT Bracket (automatic bids in bold, bubble in italics):

1. New Mexico

U. San Francisco

4. Oregon (Pac-12 2)

U. Minnesota

3. Cincinnati (Big 12 1)

U. SMU

2. Utah (Pac-12 1)

U. UNLV

1. Mississippi (SEC 2)

U. Florida St.

4. UCF (Big 12 2)

U. Memphis

3. Virginia Tech (ACC 2)

U. James Madison

2. Providence (Big East 1)

U. LSU

1. Iowa (Big Ten 1)

U. VCU

2. Drake

U. Butler

3. Ohio State (Big Ten 2)

U. Kansas St.

2. Texas A&M (SEC 1)

U. N.C. State

1. Seton Hall

U. St. Bonaventure

4. Syracuse

U. Rutgers

3. Xavier (Big East 2)

U. Washington

2. Pittsburgh (ACC 1)

U. Bradley

Others Considered: Loyola Chicago, Yale, Indiana, Maryland

Also Looked At: Massachusetts, Georgia, Boston College, Duquesne, Charlotte, UAB, North Texas, Cornell

NIT Bracketology, Feb. 26

This latest NIT bracket comes with a few notes:

1. These teams are automatic NCAA qualifiers for me: Utah St., Richmond, South Florida, Indiana St., Saint Mary's, Yale, Samford, Grand Canyon, Louisiana Tech. If any one of them were not the automatic bid they would be part of this discussion.

2. The inclusion of Richmond as the A-10 champion and South Florida as the American champion pushed Dayton and Florida Atlantic into the at-large pool. This had a bunch of butterfly effects later on.

3. I ended up with three Big East teams as NIT No. 1 seeds. This is an entirely plausible scenario and it creates quite the bracketing headache.

4. Princeton got screwed here in implied seeding because of the NIT's geographic component. The Tigers have a good enough resume to have a home game themselves and shouldn't be playing a road game at the No. 1 overall seed, but that's how the match ups worked out.

5. Xavier is a razor's edge with whether they'll finish .500 or above. It basically comes down to if the Musketeers win at Butler or against Marquette at home during the final week of the regular season. (Assuming they do the easy stuff and beat DePaul and Georgetown.) If they were to fall below .500, that'd probably create drama at MSG (where they'd need to make a run) or open up another spot in the NIT.

I'll try and update more often now that we're less than three weeks out from Selection Sunday.

Last 8 NCAA Tournament: Colorado, Virginia, New Mexico, Nevada, Wake Forest, Michigan St., Nebraska, Texas

NIT Bracket (automatic bids in bold, bubble in italics):

1. Villanova (Big East 1)

U. Princeton

4. James Madison

U. Memphis

3. Cincinnati (Big 12 1)

U. VCU

2. Pittsburgh (ACC 1)

U. Minnesota

1. St. John's (Big East 2)

U. St. Bonaventure

4. Virginia Tech (ACC 2)

U. Washington

3. Oregon (Pac-12 2)

U. San Francisco

2. Texas A&M (SEC 1)

U. Syracuse

1. Utah (Pac-12 1)

U. UNLV

4. Butler

U. Drake

3. Kansas St.

U. SMU

2. Iowa (Big Ten 1)

U. Loyola IL

1. Providence

U. Maryland

4. UCF (Big 12 2)

U. LSU

3. Ohio St. (Big Ten 2)

U. Xavier

2. Ole Miss (SEC 2)

U. N.C. State

Others Considered: Bradley, Florida St., Boston College, North Texas, George Mason, UMass, Miami FL, Rutgers, Penn St., Georgia, Charlotte, UAB, UCLA, Southern Illinois, Cornell, UC San Diego, UNCW

NIT Bracketology, Feb. 19

It's President's Day! The season is winding down. Don't believe me? Chicago St. is playing its last game of the SEASON as I put together this post. Now, the Cougars are in a unique spot because they don't have a conference affiliation (at least until they join the NEC next season), but the 2023-24 campaign is definitely winding down.

In fact, it's so close to winding down that things that looked like outliers that were going to resolve themselves in time are becoming a reality. Things such as South Florida leading the American Conference. The Bulls are now the projected regular season champion of the AAC according to KenPom's rankings and thus I've given them an automatic bid into the NCAA Tournament. Also, St. John's is falling apart. The Red Storm lost at home to Seton Hall and those two teams going in completely different directions. Ohio St. fired its coach and then beat Purdue! The Buckeyes are in line for an automatic bid to the NIT still too.

Things are getting late and crazy. Enjoy the games!

Last 8 NCAA Tournament: Boise St., Cincinnati, Ole Miss, Seton Hall, Nebraska, Gonzaga, Nevada, Texas A&M

NIT Bracket (Automatic Bids in Bold, Bubble Teams in Italics):

1. Butler

U. Washington

4. Iowa (Big Ten 2)

U. Oregon

3. Xavier

U. Syracuse

2. Indiana St.

U. VCU

1. Wake Forest (ACC 1)

U. James Madison

4. LSU (SEC 1)

U. Richmond

3. Pittsburgh (ACC 2)

U. Minnesota

2. St. John's (Big East 2)

U. Princeton

1. Utah (Pac-12 1)

U. San Francisco

4. UCF (Big 12 1)

U. Virginia Tech

3. Kansas St. (Big 12 2)

U. SMU

2. Colorado (Pac-12 1)

U. Maryland

1. Villanova (Big East 1)

U. Rutgers

4. Georgia (SEC 2)

U. N.C. State

3. Ohio St. (Big Ten 1)

U. Memphis

2. Providence

U. Miami FL

Others Considered (In Order): Boston College, Cornell, Charlotte, St. Bonaventure, Florida St., Bradley, North Texas, UNLV, UCLA, Loyola Chicago

NIT Bracketology, Feb. 12

Well, it finally happened. I had to pull a team from outside of my NIT bracket post-selection because of the automatic bid rules. In case you missed it, the top two teams in NET after the NCAA Selection from each of the Power Six conferences (those Power Five in football plus the Big East) receive an automatic bid.

Since it's near impossible to predict how NET will change, because it's dependent on things like margin, I make the somewhat bold assumption that it'll stay entirely static to the end of the season and use today's NET rankings (which the NCAA publishes every morning), to form my bracket.

When I got to the end of the NIT selection process today I thought I basically had four teams for three spots. I looked through the profiles of UNLV, Maryland, Florida St. and Charlotte to determine which I would leave out. Until I went to do the automatic bids at the top of the bracket and realized that LSU was 94th in NET and Georgia, which I had towards the bottom of the bracket but in, was 95th. This meant the Tigers received an automatic bid and you'll see them on the 4 seed line. Florida State was the team that was left out due to the change. The Seminoles have a bunch of Quad I and II wins, including over UNLV, but they also lost to Georgia and Louisville (!) this season. It's a perplexing profile to say the least.

Also, welcome Rutgers to the projected NIT bracket. The Scarlet Knights have won their last three games, including a road win at Maryland and a convincing home victory over Wisconsin on Saturday. Those wins were enough to push Steve Pikiell's team into the bracket. Rutgers has a bunch more opportunities, but if the Knights get to 17-14 overall before the Big Ten Tournament I would expect to see them in the NIT. (Definitely not a given, but now completely plausible.) They're safer than the implied 8 seed they have in this bracket, which happened due to bracketing rules (see below).

The inclusion of Rutgers means that three conferences: the Big East, ACC and Big Ten make up a large portion of this projection, which made bracketing much more difficult. As conference play continues, and conference tournaments happen, I think that number will dwindle slightly? It will definitely be something to watch moving forward.

Last 8 in NCAA Tournament: Gonzaga, Boise St., Northwestern, Nevada, Cincinnati, Butler, St. John's, Utah

NIT Bracket (automatic bids in bold, bubble in italics):

1. Colorado (Pac-12 1)

U. UNLV

4. UCF (Big 12 1)

U. Miami FL

3. SMU

U. Ohio St.

2. Oregon (Pac-12 2)

U. San Francisco

1. Villanova (Big East 1)

U. Rutgers

4. Pittsburgh (ACC 1)

U. Princeton

3. Memphis

U. Georgia

2. Kansas St. (Big 12 2)

U. Minnesota

1. Xavier (Big East 2)

U. Syracuse

4. Iowa (Big Ten 2)

U. Drake

3. Seton Hall

U. N.C. State

2. Nebraska (Big Ten 1)

U. Washington

1. Providence

U. Indiana

4. LSU (SEC 2)

U. James Madison

3. Virginia Tech (ACC 2)

U. Richmond

2. Mississippi (SEC 1)

U. Maryland

Seriously Considered: Florida St., Charlotte, VCU, St. Bonaventure, North Texas, Bradley

Next Tier: Boston College, Stanford, George Mason, Cornell

Probably CBI Bound: Duquesne, South Florida, UAB, Southern Illinois, Santa Clara, Liberty, UCLA, Loyola Chicago, Massachusetts, Saint Joseph's

Automatic NIT Bids Are Gone: Now What?

Conference play will be wrapping up before we know it and conference tournaments will be starting. For a long time prior to this season No. 1 seeds that lost in their conference tournament had a fallback option: the NIT. The NCAA had previously reserved automatic bid spots for the No. 1 seed of any conference that lost in its tournament. It was a reward for a strong regular season with a stumble at the end.

That guarantee ended when the NIT announced a new selection criteria prior to this season. Now that we have some sense of what teams might be the number one seed in their conference tournament, I wanted to see which ones lost that safety net. (The CBI has said they'd be happy to take conference winners, but that tournament comes with its own complications for participation. Still it at least offers teams somewhere to go.)

I looked at the projected No. 1 seeds for each conference according to KenPom and tried to assess their chances of getting an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament or the NIT. The No. 1 seeds in nine conference tournaments seem hopefully headed to the NCAA Tournament. Saint Mary's and Indiana St. would be holding their breath, but would definitely at least make the NIT. Unfortunately, for another 10 conferences it seems the projected No. 1 will likely have no shot at the NIT. These are mostly mid-to-low major conferences. It represents a great reduction in the equity that the old NIT system used to provide.

The Breakdown

Would Make NCAA (9): Big 12, Big East, SEC, Big Ten, ACC, Pac 12, Mountain West, Atlantic 10 (Dayton), American (Florida Atlantic)

Probably At-Large (2): Missouri Valley (Indiana St.), West Coast Conference (Saint Mary's)

Might Make NIT (11): Ivy League (Yale), WAC (Grand Canyon), Conference USA (Louisiana Tech), Southern Conference (Samford), Big West Conference (UC Irvine), Sun Belt Conference (Appalachian St.), Coastal Athletic Association (UNC Wilmington), America East (Vermont), Mid American Conference (Akron), Southland Conference (McNeese St.), Ohio Valley Conference (Morehead St.)

Won't Make NIT (10): Big South Conference (High Point), Horizon League (any of the trio projected to finish 14-6), Big Sky (Eastern Washington), Summit League (any of the trio projected to finish 10-6), ASUN Conference (Eastern Kentucky), MAAC (Quinnipiac), Southwestern Athletic Conference (Southern), Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference (Norfolk St. or North Carolina Central), Northeast Conference (Merrimack), Colgate (Patriot League)

Let's look at the 11 conferences in the middle. Here's a brief look at each of their cases and where they'd likely stand. [Projected quadrant records come from T-Rank, NET, KenPom and Strength of Record (SOR) are current as of today, Feb. 9.] They're sorted by NET as of today.

Brief NIT At-Large Profiles

Grand Canyon - NET: 49, KenPom: 57, Q1+Q2 Wins: 4, Q3+Q4 Losses: 1, SOR: 22

The reality is that in a just selection world Grand Canyon (21-2) would be on the line with Saint Mary's and Indiana St. and heading towards at potential NCAA at-large berth. Bryce Drew's team seems like a lock for the NIT though if they lose during the WAC tournament. They've beaten other NCAA/NIT consideration teams like San Francisco, San Diego St. and Louisiana Tech and their two losses are on a netural court to South Carolina and at Seattle.

UC Irvine - NET: 64, KenPom: 63, Q1+Q2 Wins: 1, Q3+Q4 Losses: 3, SOR: 79

The Anteaters played three quadrant one games during non-conference: at Utah St., at San Diego St. and at New Mexico. Not many teams were going to win those contests, which is how they find themselves with just a single projected Quad II win for winning at USC. That lack of marquee wins could hold UCI back in the eyes of the NIT Selection Committee. They seem like a team that would be right on the edge. It is worth noting though that there's a severe lack of West Coast representation in the NIT bracket right now because of the Mountain West's large number of NCAA Tournament bids, which (for conspiracy theorists) could make UCI's inclusion more attractive.

McNeese St. - NET: 69, KenPom: 78, Q1+Q2 Wins: 3, Q3+Q4 Losses: 2, SOR: 60

Will Wade's first season at McNeese St. (20-3) has been an unqualified success. The non-conference schedule was... let's say lacking, which means there's not a ton to this profile, but the Cowboys did manage to win at UAB and Michigan. Their biggest concern right now is that the rest of the Southland schedule just offers a lot of downside for their NIT profile. T-Rank projects they'll lose at least one more conference game before the tournament even starts. Even with that downward pressure on their resume, it seems like McNeese St. should be headed towards an NIT bid if necessary. 

Samford - NET: 73, KenPom: 80, Q1+Q2 Wins: 2, Q3+Q4 Losses: 2, SOR: 47

Samford's three losses this season are on the road at: Purdue, VCU and Furman. That explains how their strength of record is so high despite the fact that their best win is... at Western Carolina or at UNC Greensboro. The Bulldogs are going to represent a giant conundrum for the NIT selection committee. If the NET and KenPom stay at current levels, it'll be extremely close and they'll have something like SOR to thank if they end up on the right side of the bubble.

Louisiana Tech - NET: 75, KenPom: 71, Q1+Q2 Wins: 2, Q3+Q4 Losses: 5, SOR: 110

These Bulldogs are here because the NET and KenPom numbers will give them another look. When you look at who their wins and losses though I find it hard to make a case for Talvin Hester's squad.

Appalachian St. - NET: 81, KenPom: 89, Q1+Q2 Wins: 4, Q3+Q4 Losses: 6, SOR: 72

Appalachian St. has mixed some awesome wins with some absolutely perplexing losses, such as Wednesday's loss at Texas St. Their extremely confusing profile also includes victories over Auburn (!) and at James Madison. The fact that some of the bad losses happened extremely early in the season and they have two wins that will likely stand up for the rest of the season definitely gives the Mountaineers a fighting chance for an NIT at-large bid.

Yale - NET: 82, KenPom: 86, Q1+Q2 Wins: 3, Q3+Q4 Losses: 4, SOR: 76

Another group of Bulldogs. These ones struggled a bit during a difficult non-conference (they were 5-5 on Dec. 6), but have since rounded into form and become the top team in a top heavy Ivy League race. Yale took some stunning losses, including Fairfield at home, but they've won eight straight games. That winning streak has conincided with them starting to form a legitimate NIT at-large case. James Jones's group has wins at Sant Clara and at home against Princeton and still has chances for impressive wins at the Tigers or Cornell. How they do in those games might forecast if they'll need to win the Ivy League tournament in Levien Gymnasium to play postseason basketball.

Akron - NET: 86, KenPom: 88, Q1+Q2 Wins: 2, Q3+Q4 Losses: 2, SOR: 83

Outside of a home win over Bradley during non-conference, the Zips basically beat the teams they were supposed to beat and lost to the ones you'd expect. If that continues during conference play Akron (18-5) should be able to put up a strong record of wins and losses. That accumulation will be their biggest selling point to the NIT.

Morehead St. - NET: 101, KenPom: 108, Q1+Q2 Wins: 0, Q3+Q4 Losses: 2, SOR: 88

The NET is probably a bit too high for Morehead St. or the next two teams to receive legitimate NIT at-large consideration, but they should based on their result-based (SOR) metric. Morehead's problem is that their relatively high NET and KenPom are accompanied by zero wins in their premiere opportunities (which in their defense were: at Alabama, at Purdue, at Indiana and at Penn St.). If the Eagles had won one of those we'd probably be having a slightly different conversation.

UNC Wilmington - NET: 106, KenPom: 105, Q1+Q2 Wins: 2, Q3+Q4 Losses: 5, SOR: 77

UNC Wilmington has one of the best wins of any team on this list with their stunning victory at Kentucky on Dec. 2. That victory along with a road win at Charleston gives Takayo Siddle's team two excellent victories to hang their hats on. They've also had some slip-ups too, including 2-game losing streak to start CAA play (at Drexel and at Towson) and an overtime loss at Stony Brook. They also have an ugly 30-point loss against potential fellow at-large competitor Appalachian St. How the committee weighs those strong wins versus the losses will determine UNCW's fate.

Vermont - NET: 109, KenPom: 111, Q1+Q2 Wins: 3, Q3+Q4 Losses: 5, SOR: 85

The Catamounts had things in cruise control in America East until a surprising loss last night at NJIT, 63-61. That defeat was probably the worst of the season for the Catamounts, even if it did come on the road to a conference foe (T-Rank gave them -2.0 WAB for it). Vermont has beaten Yale at home (by a point in a wild finish) and won at Toledo, but there isn't enough for them to slip into the NIT if the fall in the America East tournament, especially considering a loss would be on their home floor.